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Jacobe Smith stands out as one of the most intriguing rising prospects in the UFC right now. He enters this matchup as an elite-level wrestler with a flawless 13-0 professional record, with four of those victories coming inside the UFC cage. What separates him from most fighters in the division is his rare combination of explosiveness and overall athletic ability. Smith prefers to be aggressive from the opening bell. He blitzes forward with heavy-handed power shots that carry legitimate finishing potential. If one of those punches lands clean it can end the fight immediately. Even when the strikes do not find the mark he has the speed and athleticism to close distance quickly and secure a takedown. Once the fight hits the ground he becomes especially dangerous. His ground and pound is relentless and he pairs it with strong top control that keeps opponents pinned and under constant pressure. While Randy Brown brings a very different skill set into the fight. He is a longtime UFC veteran who relies mostly on rangy striking. Brown is tall for the welterweight division and has learned how to use his long limbs effectively to keep opponents at distance. The major concern on his side of the ledger is his ground game. He has never developed strong wrestling or grappling skills and that is precisely the area where Smith should be able to impose his will. Brown currently carries a 74% takedown defense rate. That number looks solid on paper but it is somewhat misleading when examined more closely. Throughout his career he has primarily faced other strikers. In many of those fights he has actually held the wrestling advantage. Defending takedowns against opponents such as Kevin Holland or Bryan Battle is a much different task than defending them against a high-level wrestler with elite athleticism. When Brown has been taken down in the past he has often struggled to get back to his feet. He tends to get stuck on his back for extended periods. If that happens against Smith the outcome is likely to be violence that could end the fight. Smith also holds clear advantages in power and physicality. In the clinch he can use those traits to force Brown against the fence and create opportunities to take the fight to the mat. Brown has shown in previous bouts that he can be controlled or bullied along the fence by opponents who are not even as physically imposing as Smith. While Brown wants space to utilize his length and range Smith is likely to deny him that space through constant forward pressure. Brown may hold a technical edge on the feet in certain moments but Smith compensates for that in multiple areas including athleticism, wrestling and raw physical strength. The smaller Apex cage should further favor Smith. The reduced space makes it harder for Brown to circle and maintain distance. It also makes it easier for Smith to cut off the cage, close the gap and land heavy power shots. Across his 13 career wins Smith has only one submission victory. That suggests he will look to either secure an early knockout or gradually wear Brown down over the course of three rounds. At nearly even money this fight offers strong value on Smith double chance wager.

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Jacobe Smith wins by knockout or decision (-120)