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Lars Nootbaar Hits + Runs + RBIs Over 1.5 (-105) Action:

Lars Nootbaar might be starting to get comfortable in Arizona after being traded from the St Louis Cardinals as he went 3-8 (.375) with a double in four RBI across his last three games while clearing this HRR line twice. Now Nootbaar gets another crack at Kevin Gausan who he's gone 3-7 (.429) against with a double and a free pass. Gausman has struggled in his last two outings where he's allowed 9 earned runs on 14 hits across 9 innings pitched and he's posted a 5.48 ERA on the road in 2026. Gausman held the Diamondbacks to 2 earned runs across 6 innings pitched in April but now they get a second look at him and Arizona ranks 14th in wRC+ and 7th in ISO during the last 30 days. The Cubs bullpen does rank top 5 in both ERA and WHIP, but they could be due for some regression as they rank 13th in both FIP and xFIP. Chase Field isn't impacted by weather and it's a strong hitting environment.

*Playable at -130 or better

Jose Urquidy's ERA looks rough at first glance, but the underlying numbers tell a different story, a 2.63 xERA and 2.95 FIP for the season, both excellent, and his last three starts show zero walks. His results just haven't caught up to his stuff yet. On the other side, Kumar Rocker's actually gotten worse lately, and Texas's offense has been cold. Good process, bad results pitcher facing a fading opponent, White Sox is the play.

The Chicago Cubs are 75–56 overall and 37–29 on the road. The Cubs have lost three of their last four games. Kevin Gausman gets the start for the Cubs. Gausman is 6–11 with a 4.58 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and 143 strikeouts in 142 innings. Kevin Gausman has allowed four or more earned runs in three of his last five starts. The Arizona Diamondbacks are 69–62 overall and 38–28 at home. They have won three of their last four games. The Diamondbacks will send Merrill Kelly to the mound. Kelly is 8–11 with a 5.37 ERA, a 1.52 WHIP, and 84 strikeouts in 129 innings pitched. Kelly has allowed six earned runs or more in two of his last three starts. Neither pitcher has been great lately, but the Cubs have the No.1 scoring offense in baseball.

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Cincinnati is the side because the Reds have the cleaner pitching matchup and the far better current form on the mound, and the scheduling spot favors them as well. Chase Burns has been one of the most dependable arms in baseball, going 14‑2 with a 2.51 ERA overall and 6‑1 with a 3.02 ERA on the road, and he already threw six shutout innings against the Giants earlier this season. Carson Whisenhunt has been far shakier, carrying an 8.86 ERA over his last five starts with San Francisco going 1‑4 in those games, and while his home ERA is better at 3.86, his overall profile remains volatile. The Giants also come in off a tougher turnaround after playing in Boston yesterday, while Cincinnati traveled from Arizona — a far more manageable transition. With Burns in a strong split, Whisenhunt struggling to find consistency, and the Reds drawing the better scheduling rhythm, Cincinnati has the edge to take this one.

Cleveland has the clear edge with Messick on the mound and the better overall bullpen and offense right now. Messick is limiting damage and has strong strikeout numbers too. The Angels have struggled against left handed pitchers and that’s gonna be a problem for them in this game. Klassan is on the mound for them too and he’s going to be vulnerable to a Guardians lineup that can score in bunches.

Bet: take Cleveland on the moneyline.