Free Handicapping Plays - Sports Picks from Premium Cappers

Take: Baltimore Orioles +115

Toronto trots out the sharper arm on paper, but the price is right on Baltimore. Bradish isn't dominant right now, but he's faced this Blue Jays lineup before and that familiarity is worth something — he knows how to attack these hitters. Form also tilts to the O's: Baltimore has won 3 of their last 4, while Toronto has dropped 4 of their last 5. Backing the hotter team at plus money here.

Let's cash some tickets!

Iowa State +14.5

Iowa and Iowa State renew their rivalry and this is too many points. This rivalry game typically is played so tightly and it always comes down to the final drive or two. Iowa State’s offense put up 38 points last week and they have the firepower where they can produce some big yardage plays. Expect this game to be one that starts very slow as both teams will feel each other out. Iowa State will have to make a few big plays later in the game, but they’ll be right there throughout. Back Iowa State. Locking this in early. Ray’s daily FREE plays are meant to be smaller bankroll plays. Money management is everything in this game, and these freebies are designed to keep you moving in the right direction. Today's FREE selection is a strong lean on the Cyclones ATS. The number makes sense, the spot is right, and it’s a play worth taking. You know what to do. Good luck — Razor Ray.

SATURDAY FREE NCAAF ATS Play

FOOTBALL IS HERE! +152.85 units, 58.3% Winning Percentage (222-159-5) , 13.7% ROI since Mid-Dec! The current run has been strong, and today’s card is posted. 5x Play CFB, and a BIG 5× Play Week 1 NFL Card going up, and Ray’s DISCOUNTED Day Pass gets you full access. Razor is a top-ranked handicapper across every network where his plays are sold, and he’s continuing to climb the leaderboards. As always… “Pad that bankroll one day at a time.”

I SWEPT THE BOARD on Friday, will do the same on Saturday, and Sunday WE CRUSH THE BOOKS AGAIN with a HUGE MONEYMAKING NFL CARD: my 1^st TOUCHDOWN PLAY of the regular season, my NFC EAST MONEYMAKER, and my legendary SUNDAY NIGHT LATE BAILOUT. Get all 3 winners, win big, and join me as we once again SWEEP THE BOARD.

As of posting this week, I see Houston +1.5. In all sincerity, I think this game should be closer to a Pick ‘em or even the Texans -1.0. So, even if this line moves a bit against us, I still like the Texans.

Houston Texans.

Game 464.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

You know, folks, there is no debating the success of Josh Allen with the Buffalo Bills. However, in my opinion, he is not a money player. Let’s face it. They’ve made the playoffs with Allen at helm seven consecutive years. But yet still no ring. I will say this, when I first looked at this game, I was the Bills all the way. However, after looking more closely, I can’t see a reason why I wouldn’t play the home team Texans as an underdog. Even before the Texans got really good, they had their way with Buffalo. That’s right, they’ve taken seven of the last nine meetings straight up, going 6-3 against the spread. This includes wins and covers in the two most recent matchups between these two Conference rivals. If you recall a season ago, Houston rattled off nine consecutive wins to end their regular season, then took down Pittsburgh in a Wildcard only to be on the wrong side of Division playoff game against New England. Their defense is ferocious. One thing Josh Allen has trouble with is aggressive defenses. While, I think the Bills are a very good team, Ryans has experience and savvy under his belt, certainly better equipped here than new Buffalo head coach Brady. In my opinion, making a team with a superior defense an underdog at home in the first game of the regular season, is a mistake. Take the Houston Texans. Thank you.

GOOD TO MINUS 125

ACTION

We played the White Sox yesterday and we lost as the cardinals handed them their lunch. Like a dog on a bone we will go back and play Chicago one more time. The White Sox have now lost 4 straight and are desperate for a win. They do face Kyle Leahy but it looks like Kyle will start to regress as he did in his last game. We list action as we do not know how long or even if Newcomb will start. Castillo will pitch the bulk of the game. Chicago are only a half game ahead of Cleveland and we see a big bounce game in this one, ending the 4 game losing streak.

(907) Cincinnati Reds at (908) Milwaukee Brewers: Total

First Inning Over 0.5 (-110) Listed Pitchers Must Start

Singer is 11-17 YRFI with a 4.79 ERA

Harrison has 6 YRFI in 23 starts with a 4.07 ERA

The Reds are 9-0 & 12-1 YRFI!
The Brewers are 3-0 & 6-1 YRFI and 7-1 YRFI at home

Milwaukee batters didn’t see a pitch they didn’t like yesterday, scoring 20 runs against the Reds. The Brewers have won four in a row. The Brewers have been great at home, posting a 51-25 record at home. The Reds are 33-40 on the road. Cincinnati has lost four in a row.  The Reds' starter Singer has not been pitching well, allowing 3 runs or more in his last five starts. Harrison has pitched well all season but has lost three in a row and has given up 13 runs in his last 7.1 innings. The Brewers put up 20 yesterday. I like this game to go over once again.

Play on the OVER. This is a FREE play

Marc David Sports' Free Pick

We really like the road underdog in this matchup. The line appears to be highly influenced by Texas A&M's 50-0 win over Missouri State, but we think this is an overreaction.

The Sun Devils (1-0) also showed off their explosive potential in Week 1 with a 70-7 dominant win over Morgan State. While taking a non-conference trip into College Station to face Texas A&M (1-0) at Kyle Field is a major step up in competition, the Aggies have typically struggled to cover large spreads against physical non-conference opponents early in the season. With Arizona State's offense finding a quick rhythm behind their versatile backfield and a defense capable of winning at the line of scrimmage, expect the Sun Devils to keep pace, control tempo, and stay well within the point spread in Texas.

This is a FREE PLAY on ARIZONA STATE ATS!

Air Force +2 over North Dakota State makes sense because Air Force’s defense is already in midseason form, and their opener showed exactly why they’re one of the most underrated teams in the country. They shut out Duquesne 34–0, holding them to minimal yardage, flying to the ball, and playing with the discipline that has defined the program for years. North Dakota State has looked strong with wins over Jacksonville State and Fordham, but both games followed their usual script: run‑heavy, methodical, and built on physicality rather than explosiveness. That plays directly into Air Force’s strength, as the Falcons’ front is built to handle downhill rushing attacks and force opponents into uncomfortable passing situations. Air Force’s offense also controls tempo better than almost anyone, shortening games and limiting possessions, which is exactly what you want when catching points. With Air Force 11‑2 ATS in their last 13 games off a double‑digit win and already showing elite defensive form in 2026, taking the points with a team that thrives in grind‑heavy matchups fits perfectly.

While Illinois has a strong home field, I look for Duke to keep this under a touchdown. The Blue Devils have something to prove especially since their QB Mensiah jumped ship to Miami Fla this year, and Duke took a licking on their home from Illinois last year 42-26. Illinois got by UAB last week 42-23. UAB is down a few notches from the Blue Devils. Take the points.

Both enter this game off high scoring games last week where both have yardage heavy offenses that should be able to move the ball against each other in this game Both combined to put up over 1,000 plus yards last week and 82 points combined as well. Both teams have decent defenses, however, this game is going to be an offense first type game, as Purdue has a lot to prove this season offensively, and both should trade scores throughout the game to help this total higher. Both were good at completing their drives and were efficient in the red zone too last week, and Wake has gone over the total in seven of their last ten games overall while Purdue is 4-2 to the over, in a home game where the total is between 49.5 and 56.

Bet: take over the total.

This is a free play on 1H Under.

So I simply disagree with the notion that the line movement in this game makes Michigan the right side. Would you buy rotten meat at the grocery store if the sticker price was 75% OFF? There are those spinning a narrative about an overreaction. If you have been following my content you would have seen that I gave out Oklahoma to make the College Football Playoffs, and at the time I was looking at the schedule and assuming Oklahoma should win this game. Is Kyle Whittingham overreacting when he questions if the Wolverines $15 Million Dollar quarterback will be the starter moving forward? We have yet to see Bryce Underwood play well against a ranked team, and asking him to do so here seems so unrealistic to me.

GL,

Jesse Schule.

We should have known not to doubt the clever Josh Heupel, who surprised many by announcing that frosh Faizon Brandon had won the starting QB job at Tennessee over holdover George MacIntyre, before Brandon went out and accounted for nearly 300 yards and 5 TDs as the Vols routed Furman in their opener.

With high-level dual-threat skills, Brandon’s upside is immeasurable and he flashed all of that vs. the Paladins. Georgia Tech is a tougher test, but ACC sources aren’t high on Brent Key’s new OC George Godsey after the clever Buster Faulkner moved to Florida. The Yellow Jackets were timid and stale offensively in the opener vs. a beatable Colorado, amid worries in the support base that new QB Alberto Mendoza might be a significant drop-off from departed Haynes King (now NFL Panthers). Play Tennessee

Ricky's play on ORST.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- Texas Tech are 2-3 ATS in their last 6 road games.

- Oregon State are 3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games.

- Texas Tech are 0-2 ATS in their last 2 games.

Verdict: The value is on the home Underdog.

BYU –7.5 over Arizona makes sense because BYU enters this matchup playing at a level Arizona hasn’t been able to match in recent meetings, and the Cougars’ overall form points toward another strong showing at home. BYU crushed Utah Tech 63–7 in their opener, piling up 308 rushing yards and getting an efficient 198‑yard, three‑touchdown performance from Bear Bachmeier, while their defense allowed just 184 total yards. Arizona beat Northern Arizona 35–7, but BYU represents a massive step up in physicality and depth, and Arizona has not won in Provo since 1975. BYU has also won the last five meetings in the series, including last year’s double‑overtime win, and they’ve built an eight‑game home winning streak. Arizona’s offense is capable, but BYU’s balance, home‑field edge, and proven success in this matchup give them a clear advantage. With BYU also 6‑0 ATS in their last six Game 2 matchups, the –7.5 aligns with how this team typically responds early in the season.

PSP Data Driven play on Tulsa.

At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.

Our models suggest that the value is on the favorite. Tulsa are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games. Tulsa are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 road games.

Seattle starter Bryan Woo projects to give up 2.1 runs with a 3.08 ERA and 1.06 WHIP.  Athletics lineup has hit just .157 (14-89) with a weak .432 OPS against Woo in his career.  The Athletics will start Gage Jump. The lefty projects to give up 2.7 earned runs with a 4.55 ERA and 1.46 WHIP.  With the starting pitching clearly in Seattle’s favor, look for the Mariners to get a solid road win in this game on Saturday night.

Play MARINERS (-1.5 runline).

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Oregon wasn't sharp in beating Boise State, 34-27, as a 25 1/2-point home favorite opening week. Still, the Ducks produced nearly 500 total yards.

I'm expecting a much more polished Oregon team. The Ducks are highly explosive with QB Dante Moore having the luxury of throwing to four outstanding receivers - Jeremiah McClellan, Dakorien Moore, Jamari Johnson and Evan Stewart.

Oklahoma State's continued decline was evident in its opener, a 24-10 upset loss to Tulsa. The Cowboys were 13 1/2-point road favorites. They allowed the Golden Hurricane to average 6.3 yards per play.

The Cowboys have the potential to throw for a lot of yards with transfer QB Drew Mestemaker. But right now the team is in transition with an overhauled roster. So the timing is good for Oregon to win big here.

(Editor's note: Stephen Nover has won 60 percent of his college football premium/free plays the past two seasons. Stephen has three premium CFB  plays today, including his National TV Marquee Matchup of the Month, along with this free selection.) 

Basic stats ahead of tonight's game: Astros average 4.55 runs per game (11th in MLB) & Rays average 4.53 runs per game (15th in MLB). Peter Lambert (Astros starter) has a 3.67 ERA & Ian Seymour (Rays starter) has a 4.33 ERA.

Pick: Both teams have great lineups that look to bounce back after scoring only four runs in the latest game, making this upcoming game a high-scoring one from the first pitch.

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Georgia Southern presents a compelling case because Clemson is being asked to score more than three touchdowns with an offense that has yet to prove it deserves that kind of market respect. The Tigers are coming off an ugly 51-10 loss to LSU, their most lopsided defeat of the Dabo Swinney era, and the problems that plagued last year's 7-6 team were again evident in the opener. Clemson entered 2026 replacing seven offensive starters, bringing in a new offensive coordinator and turning the offense over to Christopher Vizzina, who entered the season with only one career start. Chad Morris was brought back to revive an attack that had become increasingly stagnant, but expecting an immediate transformation was always optimistic given the personnel turnover and injuries that affected the offensive line and receiving corps last season. Clemson also lost three top-50 NFL draft picks from its defense and had to replace five of its top seven defensive linemen, creating far more uncertainty than we are used to seeing from this program. Swinney finally became more aggressive in the portal, but Clemson is still integrating a large collection of new pieces on both sides of the football. That makes a 20.5-point spread particularly demanding for a team that needs to win by at least three touchdowns to cover.

Georgia Southern, meanwhile, enters with confidence after a 31-0 season-opening victory over Charleston Southern, giving the Eagles both a 1-0 SU and ATS start. Clay Helton has produced four consecutive bowl appearances, and his offense has posted an average offensive SP+ ranking of 60th over the previous four seasons, providing a much more established offensive foundation than the point spread implies. Quarterback is the biggest variable, but veteran Max Johnson brings 6,356 career passing yards and 49 touchdowns, while Turner Helton and Weston Bryan give the Eagles additional options if necessary. The supporting cast underwent substantial turnover, yet receiver Josh Dallas and left tackle Caelan Williams return after previously demonstrating starting-caliber ability, while guard Mo Clipper Jr. adds 12 games of starting experience from Charlotte. Georgia Southern's biggest weakness last season was clearly its defense, which cratered to 130th in defensive SP+, but that unit is extremely young and now operates under new coordinator Mike Mutz after his dominant season at Stephen F. Austin. Ten incoming defensive transfers were added around a core that includes promising corner Jaquari Brown, giving the Eagles a realistic opportunity to be considerably better defensively. That improvement matters against a Clemson offense still searching for its identity, and Georgia Southern does not need to threaten an outright upset to cash this ticket—it simply needs to keep Clemson from creating separation.

Technician’s Corner

My technical database provides additional support for Georgia Southern, with several systems pointing toward fading Clemson as a large favorite following its ugly season-opening loss:

• 124-92 ATS (57.4%) - Play Against Week 2 home teams coming off a loss by 17+ points in which they scored 10 points or fewer. Clemson enters after its 51-10 loss to LSU;

• 88-72 ATS (55.0%) - Play Against favorites of -20 or greater coming off a loss by at least 14 points. Clemson is laying 20.5 immediately after losing by 41 points;

• 102-81 ATS (55.7%) - Large favorites have historically struggled after suffering an upset loss as a favorite of -14 or greater, with the opposition covering 55.7% of qualifying games since 2020.

• 222-182 ATS (55.0%) - Sun Belt underdogs in Weeks 1-4 have produced a profitable 222-182 ATS record since 2009; and

• 216-171 ATS (55.8%) - Play Against teams coming off a game in which they accumulated more than 400 punting yards while generating fewer than 15 first downs, another system designed to fade offenses coming off extremely inefficient performances when the qualifying parameters are met.

Clemson falls into multiple negative situations involving Week 2 home teams and large favorites coming off significant losses. With one current analytical projection making Clemson only a 15-point favorite, compared with the market's -20.5, there is also tangible evidence that this number may be inflated. Clemson should rebound and win at home, but laying more than three touchdowns with a rebuilding offense following a 41-point defeat is asking too much. Take Georgia Southern plus the inflated number as Jeff Keim's Free Pick Winner for Saturday, September 11.

BIG Saturday card has a TOP Total in the Texas vs Ohio St game a TOP TIER 1 Side and several Powerful Game 2 specific Undefeated Power System Plays. CFB Comp play below

The Saturday CFB Comp play is on Clemson -20 today over Georgia Southern. Game 386 at 7:30 eastern. Clemson looked terrible last week as they were dismantled on both sides of the ball by LSU. Now they come home to take on a Georgia Southern team off a 31-0 home win. Rob notes that game 2 home favorites at -13 or more that scored less than 14 in a dog loss and are taking on a team off a home win in a game where the total is 49 or more are a perfect 8-0 to the spread since 2000. Clemson put an emphasis the entire off season on improving and anemic run game but were unable to sustain any real offense until a drive late in the 4th Quarter. They should be far better on both sides of the ball here. Look for Clemson to get a comfortable win and cover in their home opener. GL Rob V-

This is a free play on OSU.

Jim Harbaugh said about Ryan Day: "Some guys are born on third base, and they act like they hit a triple". Well while I believe that to be an accurate assessment of the character of Ryan Day, the fact is that he may have Steve Sarkisian's number. Sark is just 5-18 straight up against Top 10 ranked teams in his career. I wouldn't be surprised to see Ryan Day get the better of him once again here on Saturday.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Take Washington - Philadelphia UNDER (#475-476)

This ‘Daily Double’ video offers my take on Philly - Washington and Green Bay - Minnesota on Sunday.  Here’s a brief write-up of my Eagles - Commanders opinion.

It’s not hard to make a case for Week 1 divisional Unders — the offenses haven’t gotten enough work in August and the defenses have familiarity with what they’ll be facing on opening day.  Washington didn’t reach 300 yards of offense in either meeting against the Eagles last year.  Philly is in their first game running Sean Mannion’s offense with a downgraded receiving corps for Jalen Hurts to throw too.  Philly still has an elite defense under Vic Fangio and Washington went on a free agent spending spree, upgrading their defense on all three levels.  Expect field goals, not touchdowns in what has all the makings of a relatively low scoring affair.  Take the UNDER.

The case for Kansas City starts with buying Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid at home for a relatively inexpensive price in a divisional game, where the market is essentially treating these teams as equals. Kansas City is coming off a disappointing 6-11 season, but its underlying profile was considerably better than that record suggests, particularly on defense, where the Chiefs allowed only 19.3 points per game and ranked sixth in scoring defense. The biggest problem was an offense that slipped to 21.3 points per game, but Kansas City made meaningful changes to address that exact weakness. Eric Bieniemy is back coordinating an offense that became too predictable last season, while Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III gives Mahomes the explosive running threat that was missing from a ground game that ranked only 25th in rushing offense. Walker rushed for 1,027 yards last season and forced 77 missed tackles during the regular season and playoffs, providing a major upgrade over a backfield that lacked big-play ability. Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy and Tyquan Thornton give Kansas City speed and explosiveness on the perimeter, while Travis Kelce remains Mahomes' most trusted possession target. Most importantly, Mahomes has been a full participant in practice after recovering from his knee injury, a major development considering how much Kansas City's offensive ceiling changes with him behind center. The offensive line does have a legitimate concern at left tackle with Josh Simmons sidelined, but Reid has repeatedly demonstrated an ability to scheme around protection problems, and Mahomes' quick processing gives Kansas City a chance to neutralize some of Denver's pass-rush advantage.

Denver deserves respect after going 14-3 and reaching the AFC Championship Game last season, but that performance also creates an elevated market perception that may be difficult to duplicate. The Broncos won 11 consecutive games at one point, yet their postseason run ended with only seven points in the AFC Championship Game after Bo Nix was injured, illustrating how quickly their offensive ceiling can fall when circumstances turn against them. Denver added Jaylen Waddle and should again possess one of the league's better defenses, but Kansas City still has the best quarterback in this matchup and now gets him back at Arrowhead in a primetime divisional opener. Kansas City's defense remains another major reason to lay the short number, as Steve Spagnuolo's unit ranked sixth in points allowed and added first-round defensive tackle Peter Woods and highly regarded rookie corner Mansoor Delane to a group that already features Chris Jones and George Karlaftis. The Chiefs' 2025 defense surrendered just 301.5 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play, giving Kansas City a strong foundation while its revamped offense finds its footing.

The situational value is also appealing because Kansas City opened around -2.5 and remains available at that key number in parts of the market despite Denver receiving substantial betting support. Power-rating projections also support the favorite, with one current set of ratings making Kansas City roughly a five-point favorite rather than the -2.5 being offered. That creates value on a Chiefs team whose 2025 record obscures a defense that remained championship-caliber and an offense that has upgraded its backfield while getting Mahomes healthy again.

My technical database presents a consistent theme: the market has historically overvalued successful teams from the previous season when they return in Week 1 as road underdogs.

Technician’s Corner

• Kansas City is 16-7 ATS (69.6%) in divisional games when neither team is favored by -5 or since November 2015;

• Week 1 home favorites are 71-44 ATS (61.7%) vs. opponents that finished above .500 the previous season. Kansas City qualifies as the home favorite against a Denver team coming off its 14-win season;

• Week 1 road underdogs that won 9+ games the previous season are just 44-71 ATS, meaning the play-against side has cashed 61.7% (71-44 ATS);

• The broader playoff version has also been profitable: Week 1 road underdogs coming off a playoff season are 25-44 ATS;

• Week 1 road underdogs that won more games than their opponent the previous season are 47-64 ATS, producing a 57.7% play-against rate. Denver's 14 wins, compared with Kansas City's 6, put the Broncos squarely in that fade situation.

With Mahomes back, Walker adding a badly needed explosive rushing dimension, Bieniemy reshaping the offense, and Kansas City playing at Arrowhead in a divisional opener, take the Chiefs as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Monday, September 14.

The Bengals offense has been talented for a bit now but has been riddled with injuries that kept  their talent on the field at the same time. Joe Burrow is surrounded by familiar faces including Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins at receiver and Chase Brown at running back with Samaje Perine backing him up. This is an electric offense that can put up points but they have gotten into shootouts as their defense has lacked at times. The Cincinnati defense did lose Trey Hendrickson but they added Jonathan Allen and Dexter Lawrence to sure up the defensive front and Bryan Cook to anchor the secondary.

The Buccaneers offense is largely unchanged from last season except for the departure of Mike Evans who is a big role to fill as they look at Emeka Egbuka to help out in his 2nd season. While there is talent on this squad like Jalen McMillan, Chris Godwin is not getting any younger and Evans was sort of a safety valve for Baker Mayfield when he escaped the pocket as Evans has a clear size advantage against secondaries. This is a young defense who is looking at 3 rookies to start on Week 1 and while they are talented, it is a big step up in speed and talent while facing the Bengals offense.

I think the Bengals get out early against a young Tampa Bay defense and forces Baker to play from behind without someone like Mike Evans to throw the ball up to when under pressure. I will play the Bengals through -4.5.

This is a free play on Over.

Kalen Deboer has a new quarterback, and the jury is still out on Keelon Russell. Given Deboer's history with offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb at Fresno State, Washington and Alabama when it comes to developing quarterbacks, I think there is reason for optimism. They will be a double digit favorite at Kentucky, and sharps are backing the dog here. Will Stein has himself a talented quarterback with Kenny Minchey. This ain't your uncle's Kentucky Wildcats team, and I expect both these teams to score here. I got Alabama winning 28-24.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Penn State vs. Temple — Lincoln Financial Field

Full disclosure: I'm a Philly guy with no rooting interest in either team, but I'll be there Saturday. Temple's been irrelevant for most of the last two decades outside the Matt Rhule years, and yet this will basically play like a PSU home game — Nittany Lion alumni are everywhere in the Philly suburbs, and yes, they're loud about it. CFB just isn't a big deal in this city; it's a college hoops town first. But there's a real game under all that.

Why PSU looks better than the offseason chatter suggested

The only real criticism of Penn State this preseason was schedule softness. Then they went out and hung 45-0 on Marshall. Transfer QB Rocco Becht — the winningest active QB in FBS after three years at Iowa State — looked completely in control: 13-of-18 for 271 yards and four touchdowns, spreading it to four different receivers before getting pulled in the third quarter. Sophomore WR Koby Howard was the biggest surprise, going for a career-high 161 yards and a touchdown.

The defense was even more impressive — Marshall managed just 147 total yards, 44 of them on the ground (1.7 yards per carry). PSU also gets healthier this week, with TE Gabe Burkle and LB Alex Tatsch expected back.

Temple's problem spots

Keveun Mason is basically the entire Temple offense, and it's hard to overstate how tough a matchup that is against a PSU front that just erased Marshall's ground game. At QB, Temple is rotating Jaxon Smolik (a former Penn State backup) with Ajani Sheppard — not exactly a plan built for consistency against a defense this disciplined. The offensive line is banged up across the board, which is a brutal combination against a PSU edge group that should be living in the backfield.

The number

Vegas has this essentially where it opened Week 1 — Penn State is a 23.5-to-24-point favorite, same range as the Marshall line, and PSU covered that one running away, emptying the bench in the third quarter and still winning by 45. A noon kickoff in a de facto road environment that'll still feel like Happy Valley South favors the deeper, more organized roster.

Pick: Penn State -23.5

Let's cash some tickets!

The Cornhuskers got off to a slow start against Ohio last week. However, they woke up in the second half and pulled away for a 49-21 season-opening win. Nebraska's 248 rushing yards were its most since 2023. This week, the Huskers will face another MAC Conference opponent, an (arguably) even weaker one. Bowling Green just lost at home to an FCS program. Bowling Green coach Eddie George said this about his Falcons after the loss to Tarleton State: "This is a young football team ..." The overmatched and inexperienced Falcons are unlikely to be ready for what's in store for them in Lincoln. The Huskers should get off to a better start than they did last week and cruise to an even bigger victory.

This is a free play on OKLA.

So I simply disagree with the notion that the line movement in this game makes Michigan the right side. Would you buy rotten meat at the grocery store if the sticker price was 75% OFF? There are those spinning a narrative about an overreaction. If you have been following my content you would have seen that I gave out Oklahoma to make the College Football Playoffs, and at the time I was looking at the schedule and assuming Oklahoma should win this game. Is Kyle Whittingham overreacting when he questions if the Wolverines $15 Million Dollar quarterback will be the starter moving forward? We have yet to see Bryce Underwood play well against a ranked team, and asking him to do so here seems so unrealistic to me.

GL,

Jesse Schule.

This Friday and Saturday I have 6 big winners for you in college football with my NCAAF FRIDAY NIGHT WINNER, NCAAF EARLY GAME WINNER, NCAAF MORNING MONEY MAKER, NCAAF AFTERNOON ACCUMULATOR, NCAAF BEST BET, & NCAAF BOOKIE BUSTER.

FREE WINNER: Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

New Mexico State opened their season with a 34-17 loss at Florida State, and then bounced back with a 51-14 win over Mercyhurst. Despite starting the season with an 0-2 record, the Rainbow Warriors' history of passing success could exploit an Aggies defense that gave up significant yardage through the air in previous campaigns. New Mexico State is seeking its first-ever win on the island, but facing a steep time-zone adjustment on top of heavy fatigue, could give Hawaii their first win of the season. FYI….the Rainbow Warriors have covered the spread in 5 of their last 7 home games, making the home island environment a prominent factor here. Play Hawaii.

Our opening week pulling the trigger in college football a week ago, was a successful week for us. This week I settle for nothing less than PERFECTION. So, if you’re going to follow me, bring a broom, because WE ARE SWEEPING THE BOARD. This week I have: FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS WINNER. On Saturday, my first NCAAF CRUSHER, the OKLAHOMA/MICHIGAN WINNER, my first CONSENUS WINNER, my 1-0 TOUCHDOWN PLAY, my first LAS VEGAS STRIP MOVE PLAY, my 5% OHIO STATE/TEXAS WINNER, and my coveted LATE BAILOUT. Bring a broom and a big bag, because we are sweeping the board and will make a ton of money.

As of posting this release, I see Alabama -9.5. I really like this game all the way up to two touchdowns. So, even if it closes -10.5 or higher, I think Alabama is the play.

Saturday’s free winner: Alabama Crimson Tide.

Game 357.

12:30 PM PST/3:30 PM EST.

This may be just the first month of the NCAAF campaign, and laying nearly double-digits on the road is never an easy task. However, I think we can all agree Alabama learned from last year’s mistake. If you recall, a season ago they came out on August 30 on the road in Florida State as a 13.5-point favorite and got you humiliated, 31-17. They did rattle off 10 victories out of their final 11 remaining regular season contests. This does include wins and covers in all four games played on the road. This season they came out and blew up East Carolina at home, 48-10. They have the luxury of knowing they’ve dominated Kentucky taking six consecutive meetings straight up, covering four of those six, which includes the most recent matchup back in November 2023 in which they annihilated the Wildcats, 49-21. Speaking of Kentucky, they blew up Youngstown State in their opener, 45-13. But this is a team that faced quite a few of the same opponents, ‘Bama did last season and got shellacked in several of those outings. The Wildcats, under head coach March Stoops did surprise a few teams. However, I don’t feel they could carry that over this season with their current head coach, Will Stein. Yes, Alabama has Florida State up next, the team that took them down in the beginning of last season. But the SEC opener cannot be overlooked. While ECU, the team Alabama took down last week, is not a powerhouse. The Crimson Tide still produced 487 total yards, with 28 first downs. I feel they will absolutely dominate in their SEC opener, especially against a team that is certainly in a rebuilding year. Take the Alabama Crimson Tide. Thank you.

Basic 2025 stats ahead of Week One: Dolphins averaged 20.4 points per game (25th in NFL) & allowed 24.9 points per game (24th in NFL). Raiders averaged 14.2 points per game (32nd in NFL) & allowed 25.4 points per game (25th in NFL).

Pick: This game features two of the worst teams with the worst offenses from last season. The bar is low for points. That said, this is a low total, and both offenses look to step up to watch the Over cover, especially with the Raiders bringing in an offensive-minded coach in Klint Kubiak, who will address the issue.

Manon Fiorot is a genuine force at flyweight. She is a powerful kickboxer with excellent distance management and looks just as comfortable working from range as she does when the fight turns into a brawl. Alexa Grasso is a former champion with a well-rounded game and sharp boxing. That pedigree matters. Even so Fiorot’s physicality stands out as one of the biggest edges in this matchup. For her frame she is a large flyweight and uses that size well. She will be the stronger fighter and that strength should show up in the clinch and also help stuff takedowns. If the fight hits the mat Grasso likely holds the grappling edge but I don't believe she'll find success getting her down. Fiorot should defend the entries and punish her with damaging shots on the way in. Grasso has shown she can trade even when she's giving up power and her toughness is real. Close output in a round would still leave Fiorot still landing the heavier and more impactful shots. Those moments can swing a judge if a round is tight, especially if Fiorot is walking Grasso down and controlling the pace. Alexa overall remains extremely durable. Across a long career she has been finished only once and that came by submission against Tatiana Suarez in 2018. She has never been knocked out and that history points to her lasting the distance here. Give me Manon Fiorot to control the striking and take a clear decision.

(477) Green Bay Packers at (478) Minnesota Vikings: Spread ***11-3 Last 14 FREE Plays***

4% Minnesota Vikings -1.5 (-105) Fight to find the best line, if you're getting -2 -110 or -105 bet Moneyline -120 instead

UPDATE 9/10 2:50 PM EST: Here is a video breakdown on youtube:

If you can see the link, in YouTube search: Wagertalk TV The Mad Russian

UPDATE 9/7 3:20 PM EST: I really like the matchup for Minnesota at home to open the season, and the biggest advantage for me is Brian Flores and this Vikings defense against Jordan Love.

Green Bay enters the season with major questions along the offensive line. PFF currently ranks the Packers' offensive line 28th out of 32 teams after they were already a bottom-10 pass-blocking unit last season. Green Bay lost Rasheed Walker and Elgton Jenkins during the offseason, and outside of right tackle Zach Bako-Bewele, the other four projected starters have combined for just one season with a PFF grade above 65.0.

That becomes even more concerning when you look at Jordan Love's numbers when he's pressured.

Among 41 qualifying quarterbacks last season, Love posted a 128.8 passer rating from a clean pocket, ranking #1 in the NFL. Under pressure, that number absolutely cratered to 46.7, ranking 39th out of 41. His completion percentage showed the same dramatic drop, going from 79.6% when kept clean to just 41.6% under pressure.

That is exactly where Brian Flores can create problems. His pressure packages and disguises force quarterbacks to process quickly, and Love simply wasn't the same quarterback when opponents were able to get him uncomfortable last season.

Green Bay also enters this game with major losses on the defensive side. Micah Parsons is unavailable to open the season and Rashan Gary is now in Dallas. Those two combined for 20 of Green Bay's 29 sacks last season, meaning the Packers enter Week 1 without players responsible for nearly 69% of their entire sack production from a year ago.

There is another significant issue for Green Bay offensively. Josh Jacobs is currently on the Commissioner's Exempt List and cannot practice or play while he remains there. Jacobs rushed for 929 yards and 13 touchdowns last season, and no other returning Packers running back rushed for more than 106 yards. Green Bay is currently preparing for Week 1 without its workhorse back.

I also like the coaching and home-field component here. Kevin O'Connell is 3-1 straight up at home against Green Bay since taking over in Minnesota.

We're laying less than a field goal at U.S. Bank Stadium in a divisional game where I believe Minnesota has the defensive and coaching matchup we want, while Green Bay comes into the opener with major questions in the trenches and missing several important pieces on both sides of the football.

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UTSA is the value side in this matchup because the Roadrunners enter 2026 with far more proven continuity in the areas that matter most, starting with quarterback Owen McCown and an offense that has been the program’s calling card under Jeff Traylor. McCown returns after an uneven 2025 season but demonstrated an extremely high ceiling, including a two-game stretch against Tulane and East Carolina in which he threw for 618 yards and nine touchdowns while producing a Total QBR above 95.0. UTSA also brings back explosive running back Will Henderson III, who averaged an exceptional 6.9 yards per carry last season, along with two of its top three receivers and three starting offensive linemen. Henderson immediately confirmed that big-play ability in the opener, breaking a 75-yard touchdown run as UTSA generated 525 yards in a 45-16 victory over UTRGV. McCown was exceptionally efficient in that game, completing 22 of 27 passes for 275 yards and three touchdowns without an interception, giving UTSA exactly the kind of quarterback stability I want in what should be a competitive road environment. The Roadrunners are projected 73rd nationally in SP+ with 7.5 average wins, compared with Texas State at 88th and 5.8 projected wins, giving UTSA the stronger overall preseason profile. Jeff Traylor also provides a significant stability advantage in a matchup between programs that know one another well, and UTSA has been remarkably consistent under him despite stepping up in competition after leaving Conference USA. The Roadrunners' defense remains the primary concern because only eight of the 22 defenders who logged 200-plus snaps last season return, but Traylor aggressively addressed those losses through the portal with experienced additions at every level.

Texas State possesses a dangerous quarterback of its own in Brad Jackson, but there are legitimate reasons to believe UTSA is better positioned to win the overall matchup. Jackson was outstanding last season, throwing for 3,224 yards and rushing for another 890 while posting the fourth-best Total QBR among Group of Six quarterbacks, and his chemistry with Beau Sparks and Chris Dawn Jr. gives the Bobcats explosive-play capability. That explosiveness has hurt UTSA badly in this rivalry, including multiple long touchdown connections in Texas State's 43-36 victory last season, so limiting Jackson's vertical passing game is clearly the Roadrunners' defensive priority. However, Texas State lost significant personnel along both lines, and while G.J. Kinne attacked those weaknesses through the portal, the Bobcats still must prove those rebuilt units can perform cohesively against quality competition. That concern surfaced immediately against Texas, where Texas State was overwhelmed 59-7, and Jackson was held to 150 passing yards with no touchdowns and an interception. UTSA's offense presents a much more balanced challenge than the Bobcats faced in many of their favorable matchups last season because McCown can attack vertically while Henderson forces the defense to respect an explosive running game. The Roadrunners also have motivational value after losing two straight meetings in this rivalry following five consecutive victories to begin the series, including last year's seven-point loss in San Antonio.

Technician’s Corner

My technical database provides strong support for UTSA, with several profitable systems targeting small road underdogs, revenge situations, and opponents coming off ugly losses:

• 264-161 ATS (62.1%) - Underdogs of +6 or fewer seeking revenge for an upset loss from the previous season are 264-161 ATS since 1989. UTSA qualifies after losing outright as the favorite to Texas State last season;

• 36-17 ATS (67.9%) - The revenge angle becomes even stronger recently: non-conference underdogs seeking revenge for a loss from the previous season are 36-17 ATS since 2019, when the additional system parameters are satisfied;

• 196-139 ATS (58.5%) - Road teams facing an opponent coming off a loss by 46+ points have gone 196-139 ATS since 2001. Texas State enters this matchup after its 59-7 loss at Texas;

• 397-301 ATS (56.9%) - Home favorites coming off a game in which they scored fewer than 10 points are just 301-397 ATS since 2004, producing a profitable 56.9% Play Against situation;

• 124-92 ATS (57.4%) - Play Against Week 2 home teams coming off a loss by at least 17 points in which they scored 10 or fewer. That situation has produced a 124-92 ATS record for the opposition since 1999.

The database attacks Texas State from two angles: UTSA is in a profitable small-underdog revenge role, while the Bobcats fall into multiple negative systems after their 52-point loss to Texas. With the market essentially pricing this as a toss-up, I favor the team with the superior projected SP+ profile, greater offensive continuity, more proven head-coaching stability, and the better combination of quarterback and running-game experience. Take UTSA plus the point(s) as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Saturday, September 12.

This matchup features two rebuilding teams, but the market still asks Las Vegas to lay a full field goal even though the Dolphins can exploit several favorable matchups. Miami went 7-10 last season, four wins better than a 3-14 Las Vegas team with a disastrous -191-point differential. The Raiders finished last in offensive EPA, EPA per rush, and sack rate allowed, while their line ranked 32nd in yards before contact and adjusted line yards. Las Vegas responded with a new coaching staff and personnel changes, but major uncertainty remains under first-year head coach Klint Kubiak and veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins. Miami is also resetting under Jeff Hafley, yet Malik Willis presents a distinct challenge with his mobility and ability to create outside the play's structure. Willis generated 0.377 EPA per dropback in limited action last season, and his rushing threat should test a Raiders defense that must preserve gap integrity while containing De’Von Achane. After leading the NFL in yards per carry on runs of 10-plus yards last season, Achane remains Miami's most dangerous weapon and can flip field position with a single touch.

The matchup became even more favorable for Miami with Brock Bowers expected to miss the opener following a meniscus trim Tuesday in Dallas, taking the Raiders' most proven receiving weapon away from Cousins. Bowers has been dealing with knee issues since last season, when he played in twelve games (eight starts) before being placed on injured reserve for the last two weeks of the season. He totaled 64 catches for 680 yards and seven touchdowns and was named to his second straight Pro Bowl. The absence of Bowers becomes especially important because Las Vegas already entered the season with major questions at wide receiver, where Jack Bech, Tre Tucker and Jalen Nailor comprise an underwhelming group. The Raiders also have uncertainty in the backfield, as Ashton Jeanty has been working his way back from an ankle injury suffered in August, further reducing the offensive advantages normally expected from a home favorite.

Miami's defense struggled last season, especially against the pass, but Hafley's defensive background and the organization's aggressive shift toward a younger roster offer reasons for optimism. The Dolphins upgraded at linebacker and in the secondary, with first-round corner Chris Johnson and rookie linebacker Jacob Rodriguez adding much-needed athleticism. Las Vegas should benefit from Tyler Linderbaum at center, yet major concerns remain about an offensive line that allowed pressure at an alarming rate last season.

Miami also holds a schematic edge: Willis' mobility and Achane's explosiveness can challenge a Raiders defense that struggled against the run in the preseason. Las Vegas cannot overcommit to stopping the run without becoming vulnerable to Willis' scrambles and designed movement. Both teams entered the season with similar expectations—Miami's win total was 4.5 versus 5.5 for Las Vegas—suggesting little talent gap on a neutral field. Miami also has the stronger recent baseline, having won seven games last year to Las Vegas' three, while both teams install new systems and start new quarterbacks.

Technician’s Corner

My technical database supports Miami in the short-road-underdog role. The Dolphins fall into a 62.5% ATS look-ahead system, a 66.7% ATS Week 1 road-underdog system, and a 59.0% ATS Week 1 system, while Las Vegas falls into multiple negative favorite situations.

• 825-494 ATS (62.5%) - Play On underdogs vs. teams that are +5 or greater underdogs in their next game. Las Vegas is currently projected around +9.5 at the Chargers next week, putting Miami into an exceptionally strong 62.5% league-wide situation;

• 273-195 ATS (58.3%) - Play Against favorites in Games 1-4 that failed to make the playoffs the previous season. The Raiders went just 3-14 last season;

• 310-233 ATS (57.1%) - Play On road underdogs of less than +9 with totals from 40 to 42.5;

• 50-25 ATS (66.7%) - Week 1 road underdogs of less than +7 that won two or fewer road games the previous season have covered two-thirds of qualifying games. Miami won only two road games last season;

• 43-22 ATS (66.2%) - Play Against the Raiders when favored by -3 or more. Las Vegas has historically struggled badly in this exact favorite role, covering only 33.8% of qualifying games since 2003;

• 249-200 ATS (55.5%) - Play Against non-divisional home favorites of -4 or less during Weeks 1-9.

With Bowers expected to be out, Jeanty coming off an ankle injury, lingering concerns along the Raiders' offensive line, and Miami possessing the two most dynamic rushing threats on the field in Willis and Achane, grab the generous points with the Dolphins as Jeff Keim's Free Pick Winner for Sunday, September 13.

Stamps +3...(3%) Shop for BEST number. Still one or two 3.5 available, but also seeing 2.5 popping up.

Calgary blew an 18-point lead against Edmonton on Labour Day, but I’m not ready to write off the Stampeders because of how that game ended.

In fact, I think the market has overreacted.

Calgary led 25-7 and was in control for much of the afternoon before Edmonton exploded late, scoring the final 24 points to steal a 38-28 victory. Edmonton deserves credit for the comeback, but the final score doesn’t tell the entire story.

The betting market has made a significant adjustment since then.

Edmonton opened as high as a 4.5-point favourite before correcting to -3.5, and the consensus number has now moved to Edmonton -3. I’ve even seen -2.5 starting to pop up.

That movement is important because I’m going to play Calgary +3.

I would have preferred to grab the +3.5, and that extra half-point matters in a game like this. With the market moving toward -3, however, I’m reducing the confidence and making this a 3% play rather than a larger position.

The underlying handicap hasn’t changed.

Calgary is much healthier heading into the rematch. Vernon Adams Jr. is back, Dedrick Mills has returned, and Rene Paredes is back in the lineup. This is still the CFL’s highest-scoring offence at 36.2 points per game, while Calgary ranks third in the league in rushing.

I don’t need Calgary to win this game. I need them to stay within a field goal.

Edmonton is 9-3 and deserves plenty of respect, but the Elks were down 25-7 in this matchup just five days ago. I’m not willing to make Edmonton a four-point better team simply because they pulled off an incredible comeback.

The number has moved, so the value has been reduced. That’s why this is only a 3% play.

But at +3, I still believe Calgary is getting enough points to make this a worthwhile wager.

I’ve seen +2.5 starting to show up, so shop around and get the +3 while it’s still available.

Calgary +3 is the play.

Take Alabama - Kentucky UNDER (#357-358)

The ‘Daily Double’ video below offers my ‘free play’ recommendations for Alabama - Kentucky and BYU - Arizona on Saturday Afternoon.  Here’s a brief write-up for the WIldcats vs the Crimson Tide.

Alabama has plenty of talent on offense, but when it comes to returning production from last year, they’re ranked outside the Top 100.  It’s the same story with Kentucky in the first year of the Will Stein era; another team that has brand new personnel on the offensive side of the football.  These are two teams with first year starters at quarterback; a classic college football recipe for a relatively low scoring first ’test’ of the season as SEC play begins. ‘Bama has cashed at a 67% Under clip in SEC play in the Kalen Deboer era; 12-6 to the Under in 18 conference games), an under-the radar trend worth riding here.  Take the UNDER.

Take Houston (#464)

While the recreational bettors fall in love with their favorite quarterback when it comes to betting Week 1 of the NFL, experienced pros know that getting stops – the better defense – is every bit as important as having an elite QB.  The Texans defense is better than the Bills defense on all three levels; one of many ‘depth concerns’ issues that Buffalo has after signing Josh Allen to his fat long term contract.  I trust Houston to get a key fourth quarter stop far more than Buffalo -- so crucial in this pointspread range -- just like they did last year when they held Matthew Stafford and the Rams to 14 points in Week 1.  This time around, however, I expect the Texans revamped offensive line to hold up; a game I expect them to win.  That said, I’d rather take the point and a half here ‘just in case’ of a tight finish -- the moneyline payout simply isn’t worth it.  Take the Texans

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Jacksonville State +2.5 offers value in a matchup where the Gamecocks have more offensive continuity and a higher ceiling than the market gives them credit for. Charles Kelly’s team has already experienced both ends of the spectrum this season, rebounding from a difficult 33-7 road loss at North Dakota State with a dominant 49-7 victory over Eastern Kentucky. Through two games, Jacksonville State is averaging 28.0 points and 6.05 yards per play while completing 66% of its passes, compared with an Ohio offense that produced only 21 points, 303 total yards and 4.66 yards per play in its opener. Sophomore quarterback Caden Creel provides important continuity after producing 1,514 passing yards and 1,190 rushing yards last season, giving Jacksonville State a legitimate dual-threat weapon capable of stressing Ohio horizontally and vertically. Creel also has an intriguing mismatch target in 6-foot-8 Deondre Johnson, who averaged an explosive 24.1 yards per reception last season, while the receiving corps was reinforced through the portal. The offensive line also retains five of last season’s top eight linemen, an important advantage against an Ohio roster undergoing substantial turnover. Jacksonville State entered 2026 with far greater continuity than Ohio, which changed head coaches again and returned offensive players who combined for only 11 starts last season. Ohio’s quarterback situation was particularly unsettled entering the year, and that lack of continuity showed immediately when the Bobcats completed just 43.8% of their passes in a 49-21 loss at Nebraska.

Ohio has yet to demonstrate that it deserves to lay points against a Jacksonville State program that has won nine games in each of its first three FBS seasons and captured two straight Conference USA championships. The Gamecocks finished 2025 with nine one-score games, winning five, so Kelly’s roster is accustomed to playing deep into competitive fourth quarters. Defensively, Jacksonville State retains proven disruption at multiple levels, with safety Caleb Nix and corner Tre’Quon Fegans combining for five interceptions and 10 pass breakups last season, while the staff aggressively supplemented the unit through the portal. Ohio has more continuity defensively, but its secondary lost four of five starters, creating an area Jacksonville State can attack with Creel’s mobility and Johnson’s size. The Bobcats also surrendered 49 points, 523 total yards, and 7.1 yards per play against Nebraska, including 248 rushing yards at 5.9 per attempt, suggesting this defense is not yet in position to consistently control an opponent with a mobile quarterback. Jacksonville State, meanwhile, just held Eastern Kentucky to seven points, giving the Gamecocks a confidence-building defensive performance before returning to the road.

Technician’s Corner

My technical database supports Jacksonville State in the short-underdog role, with several systems pointing to a game against Ohio following its 49-21 loss at Nebraska. Ohio is currently a 2.5-point home favorite, while Jacksonville State enters 1-1 after routing Eastern Kentucky 49-7.

• 197-115 ATS (63.1%) - Play Against qualifying home teams favored by 4.5 points or less coming off a road loss against a non-conference opponent. Ohio fits the core situation after losing at Nebraska and returning home as a small favorite against Conference USA member Jacksonville State;

• 805-622 ATS (56.4%) - Play On road teams against opponents favored by no more than four points when that opponent has a negative average first-half scoring margin and is coming off a game featuring 60+ combined points. Ohio's opener produced 70 points, and the Bobcats trailed Nebraska 28-21 at halftime;

• 653-517 ATS (55.8%) - Play Against qualifying home teams being outscored by an average of 7+ points per game after a contest producing 60+ combined points. Ohio enters with a -28-scoring margin after its 49-21 season-opening defeat

• 198-153 ATS (56.4%) - Non-conference underdogs of +4 or less playing with revenge have covered 56.4% of qualifying games since 2008

With the more established quarterback, greater offensive continuity, Ohio’s massive offseason transition, and a spread providing protection in what profiles as a close game, take the points with Jacksonville State as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Saturday, September 12.

Take #403 Arkansas vs Utah Over

Utah looked absolutely explosive in its opener, cruising past Idaho 66-14 while piling up 633 total yards, including 364 on the ground and 269 through the air. The biggest takeaway was the depth. Ten different players carried the ball and eight caught a pass, giving Devon Dampier plenty of weapons to work with.

Arkansas presents a much tougher test, but the Razorbacks showed in Week 1 that they can control the clock. They held the ball for more than 41 minutes against North Alabama, and while the rushing attack struggled, KJ Jackson has enough talent at quarterback to make plays through the air.

The matchup I like is Arkansas taking some chances against Utah's defense. Chris Marshall is a legitimate receiving weapon, and I expect the Razorbacks to take several shots downfield rather than simply trying to grind this game out.

Utah should be able to move the football consistently, while Arkansas has enough offensive talent to contribute to the total. If both teams play aggressively, I think we get a much higher-scoring game than some may expect.

The only question is whether Arkansas can do enough offensively to keep the Over alive, but I believe Jackson and Marshall give them that opportunity.

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Joe Burrow Passing Yards Over 267.5 (-111):

Joe Burrow enters the 2026 campaign as the odds-on favorite to lead the NFL in passing and he's projected to record the most pass attempts of any quarterback on the Week 1 slate. Burrow dealt with injuries last season, but he still managed to record 284+ passing yards in 3 of his last 5 games and he should get more pass protection with all five of his starting offensive linemen returning to action. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers allowed the 6th most passing yards last season (254.8/game) while also allowing the MOST yards after the catch. This game sets up as a shootout with the highest total on the board (50.5) and the game script should favor Burrow as the Bengals are -3.5-point home favorites. Bryce Young managed to throw for 266 yards against Tampa Bay in a critical game that decided the NFC South and I'm banking on "Joe Shiesty" beating that number.

*Playable at 270.5 or better

They’re getting a bit antsy in Cincinnati, where the Bengals haven’t made the playoffs since 2022 and a return to the Super Bowl for Joe Burrow, which once seemed inevitable after he reached the finale vs. the Rams in his second year in the league, is now starting to draw comparisons to Dan Marino, who never got back to the Super Bowl after also making it in his second year with the Dolphins. Of course, Burrow staying in one piece for an entire season would be a nice start after he’s missed large chunks in three of his six campaigns in the league, with last year’s eight games the fewest in his career. Indeed, Joe’s presence means almost everything to the Bengals, who were 1-8 without him a year ago, and why lingering questions along the OL, which has allowed Burrow to get sacked 213 times in his career (the fourth most in the league since 2020) and has the worst pass-block rate in the league across that span, remain an obvious red flag. For the moment, Burrow is upright, however, and Zac Taylor is looking forward to a rebuilt defensive line wreaking havoc with foes on the Bengals’ schedule now that wrecking machine DT Dexter Lawrence II has arrived from the Giants along with other disruptors on the defensive front. Yet keep in mind that Cincinnati has been a notorious slow starter in recent years, failing to cover in its last four openers. Injuries also figured in the Bucs' demise a year ago and failure to defend the NFC South crown they had won the previous four seasons, and Todd Bowles is crossing his fingers that some of the walking wounded from the summer like wideouts Emeka Egbuka and Jalen McMillan (the presence of both more important now that Mike Evans has moved to the 49ers) will be ready to go for the opener. The clever Baker Mayfield also looks a proper elixir to Cincinnati’s supposedly juiced-up pass rush, and Bowles’ own new adds in the defensive front seven could expose the main Bengals question mark--protecting Burrow. Moreover, any points from the oddsmakers are always worth considering with the low-variance Bucs, after their last six games a season ago were all decided by four points or fewer. Play Tampa Bay Bucs

Wisconsin +20.5 against Notre Dame was one of our favorite plays from last week, and if you would have showed us the box score for that game, we would probably be waiting for you in the cashier's line. Notre Dame only out-gained the Badgers by 66 yards and four first downs, but the Irish played mistake-free football and the Badgers did not. Wisconsin's two turnovers proved too much to overcome, and the Irish showed that teams will have to play a near-perfect game to beat Notre Dame in 2026. That's probably not something the Owls have up their sleeve, but similar to Wisconsin, Rice does possess the blueprint that could help the Owls stay within this lofty number. In the season-opening win over FCS-level Houston Christian, Rice threw a total of ten passes. The Owls ran for 465 yards while going 11-of-17 on third down. The strength of the Irish defense is in the secondary (DJ McKinney returned an interception for a touchdown last week against Wisconsin), but the Owls have very little interest in putting the ball in the air. Wisconsin had the formula to compete with Notre Dame (it was a 13-10 game at halftime), but the Badgers made the back-breaking mistakes in the second half. If Rice can play A LITTLE bit cleaner, the Owls can keep this clock running like a service academy contest.
Play Rice