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Take Detroit - Buffalo OVER (#103-104)

The Bills offense was nearly unstoppable in Week 1, hanging 36 poits on an elite Texans stop unit.  On Thursday, they’ll take on a Lions defense missing three of their four projected starters in the secondary (both safties hurt and CB Arnold got cut after an off-field incident).  Bills TE Dalton Kincaid, talking about his healthy unit: “When we're at full strength, it's hard to beat us.”  The Lions just gave up 30 points after halftime vs a mediocre (at best) Saints offense and will be playing off an OT game (on the field for 86 plays vs New Orleans) on a short week with travel.  That’s no recipe for a shutdown showing.  But the Bills defense just got lit up by CJ Stroud; bad news vs a better QB with superior weapons surrounding him.  Expect touchdowns in bunches!  Take the OVER.

This is a free play on HOU.

Lets not overreact to the Bengals winning and the Texans losing in Week 1. Cincinnati heads out on the road traveling to Houston. The Texan's #1 ranked defense couldn't stop Joe Burrow, but I don't think it's wise to assume Joe Burrow and the Bengals can easily replicate that success. CJ Stroud finally has some weapons on offense, with a healthy receiving corps and a pair of capable running backs. He's thrown 12 TD passes and just 1 pick at home since the beginning of last season.

GL,

Jesse Schule

If you would have printed out the box score and handed it to Panthers' fans before Sunday's game against the Bears, almost every Carolina fan would have signed up for it on the spot. You're tellin' me we're going to score 37 points and generate 478 yards with 24 first downs while going 4-for-4 in the red zone?! We would imagine that most folks inside Bank of America Stadium would have signed up for that. Unfortunately, those numbers were only good enough for a 22-point defeat against the white-hot Bears. Bryce Young has seemingly formed a nice bond with Jalen Coker, but an offense with only two viable receivers (along with Tetairoa McMillan) is likely going to struggle. Xavier Legette and Jimmy Horn Jr. both failed to catch a pass on Sunday and Horn Jr. fumbled a punt, which has seemingly sealed their fate at the bottom of the depth chart. With Michael Penix Jr. and Tua Tagovailoa both unavailable, the Falcons called upon Cooper Rush for a surprise start against the Steelers. Trailing by three with the ball near midfield in the fourth quarter, Rush had a screen pass intercepted by TJ Watt and returned for a touchdown. When asked about the potential return of either Penix Jr. or Tagovailoa, Falcons' head coach Kevin Stefanski simply replied, "No updates" in his Monday press conference. Carolina has had Atlanta's number over the past few years (4-1 straight-up and ATS last five meetings), and even though things got out of hand against the Bears, the Panthers still have some positives to take away from that result.
Play Carolina Panthers

This is a free play on SEA.

The Seahawks have won more games on the road the last two years than they have at home. They are 9-0 straight up and 8-1 ATS in their last nine versus Arizona. The line was double digits before Darnold got hurt, and I don't downgraded Seattle a full six points because of Drew Lock. Arizona was projected to be one of the worst teams in the NFL this season, and we shouldn't overreact to their Week 1 win at LA. That game might say more about the Chargers than it does about the Cards. Jacoby Brissett is 0-3 versus Seattle in his career, with a 53% completion percentage in those games. Most recently a 42-21 loss at Seattle last year.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a free play on SEA.

The Seahawks have won more games on the road the last two years than they have at home. They are 9-0 straight up and 8-1 ATS in their last nine versus Arizona. The line was double digits before Darnold got hurt, and I don't downgraded Seattle a full six points because of Drew Lock. Arizona was projected to be one of the worst teams in the NFL this season, and we shouldn't overreact to their Week 1 win at LA. That game might say more about the Chargers than it does about the Cards. Jacoby Brissett is 0-3 versus Seattle in his career, with a 53% completion percentage in those games. Most recently a 42-21 loss at Seattle last year.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Take #103 Lions vs Bills Over

This could be a potential Super Bowl preview, and Buffalo gets the advantage of opening the brand-new Highmark Stadium. The Bills already looked explosive in Week 1, putting up 36 points in Houston against a Texans defense that is expected to be among the league’s best.

Both defenses showed vulnerabilities last week. Detroit allowed 30 points to New Orleans before winning in overtime, while Buffalo surrendered 31 to Houston. Now the Lions travel on a short week with two defensive backs sidelined, which is a major concern against Josh Allen and this Buffalo passing attack.

Allen was outstanding in Week 1, throwing for 334 yards and two touchdowns. James Cook only received 13 carries, so expect Buffalo to make a concerted effort to establish him against a Detroit defense that could struggle to contain the run. Once Cook gets going, play-action becomes a major weapon.

Detroit should also have opportunities. Jahmyr Gibbs exploded for 156 rushing yards on 29 carries against New Orleans, while Jared Goff threw for 206 yards. The Bills' secondary showed it can be attacked, and Goff should find more success through the air in this matchup.

The Lions have also been an Over machine, and the combination of Detroit's defensive injuries, Buffalo's offensive firepower, and the short week sets up another potential shootout.

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Take #267 Raiders vs Chargers Over

The Chargers laid an egg in Week 1 against Arizona, with the offense, defense and special teams all failing to deliver. Now the margin for error is shrinking, especially with Buffalo and Seattle waiting in Weeks 3 and 4.

Despite the ugly opener, there were encouraging signs from the offense. The offensive line provided Kirk Cousins with mostly clean pockets, while the running game showed enough productivity to keep defenses honest. The passing attack was somewhat limited without Brock Bowers, and Cousins tossed two interceptions, but the foundation is there for improvement.

The Chargers still have plenty of offensive talent, and this is a spot where both teams should play with urgency. With LA needing a bounce-back performance and the Raiders capable of contributing offensively, I expect both teams to push the pace and generate scoring opportunities.

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Take #261 Bengals Over Texans

Joe Burrow may have a modest straight-up record as a road underdog, but his against-the-spread numbers in this situation are outstanding. The Bengals have covered in 13 of their last 14 games when Burrow has been a road underdog of at least 2.5 points, with the lone loss coming in 2023 when Burrow suffered his season-ending wrist injury.

Cincinnati has also covered in each of its last three trips to Houston. The Bengals showed enough offensively in Week 1, even without much involvement from Ja’Marr Chase, to believe they can put points on the board against the Texans.

Houston’s defense remains one of the league’s toughest, but Buffalo just put up 36 points against this unit. That gives me confidence Cincinnati can find enough offense to stay within the number.

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