Paraguay vs United States: Picks, Predictions and Props - 6/12/2026
Use Code WWWC The United States kicks off its 2026 World Cup campaign on home soil Friday night against Paraguay at SoFi Stadium, and we have a full betting preview with a moneyline pick, spread analysis, total lean, and three player props to target.
Paraguay vs United States Odds
- Best Moneyline Odds: USA -120,
- Paraguay +320,
- Draw +240.
- Best Spread Odds: USA -0.5 (-120)
- Paraguay +0.5 (+100).
- Best Total Odds:
- Over 2.5 (+110),
- Under 2.5 (-130)
Game Info
- Date: June 12, 2026
- Time: 9:00 PM EDT
- Location: SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
Paraguay vs United States Preview
The United States enters this Group D opener as the highest-ranked team in the group at No. 17 in the world, but the pressure is immense for Mauricio Pochettino's squad to deliver on home soil. The USMNT has only one clean sheet in its last 13 matches and has conceded 11 goals across its past four games, raising real questions about defensive stability. Paraguay, ranked 41st, arrives at its first World Cup since 2010 after grinding through the brutal CONMEBOL qualifying gauntlet. The South Americans boast a solid backline and a cohesive midfield core, but they suffered a massive blow when star attacker Julio Enciso was ruled out of this match with a thigh injury sustained in their final warm-up against Nicaragua. Without Enciso, Paraguay's attack - which scored 14 goals in 18 qualifiers - loses its primary creative spark. The USMNT is riding a three-match winning streak against Paraguay, including a 2-1 friendly victory last November in which Gio Reyna and Folarin Balogun scored. Christian Pulisic ended a long goal drought in the pre-tournament friendly against Senegal, scoring one and setting up another, and his form will be critical for the Americans.
Paraguay vs United States: Historic Head-to-Head Stats and Analysis
The United States and Paraguay have met nine times across all competitions, with the USMNT holding a 5W-2L-2D record. Their history dates back to the inaugural FIFA World Cup in 1930, when the United States defeated Paraguay 3-0 behind Bert Patenaude's historic hat trick - the first hat trick ever scored at a World Cup. The sides did not meet again until a scoreless draw in St. Louis in 1997, followed by a 2-2 draw in San Diego. Paraguay's biggest competitive win came at the 2007 Copa América, a 3-1 victory. The USMNT answered at the 2016 Copa América Centenario with a 1-0 win in Philadelphia on a Clint Dempsey goal. The Americans have won the last three meetings, including a 1-0 friendly in 2018 and the 2-1 friendly last November in Chester, Pennsylvania, where tempers boiled over in stoppage time. Overall, the US has outscored Paraguay 12-9 in the series.
The game thesis is that the United States wins a competitive but controlled match at home. Paraguay's defensive organization will keep things tight for stretches, but without Julio Enciso, La Albirroja lacks the firepower to break through a US side that should control possession and create enough chances to find the net twice. Expect a 2-1 final scoreline, mirroring the result from last November's friendly.
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Best Bet - Moneyline Pick: United States (-120)
The USMNT is the better team on paper, holds home-field advantage in a sold-out SoFi Stadium, and has won three straight against Paraguay, including a 2-1 result just seven months ago. Paraguay's attack is severely weakened without Julio Enciso, their leading creative force who scored and assisted regularly during CONMEBOL qualifying. The US has the higher individual talent level with Pulisic, McKennie, and Balogun, and Pochettino's side should have enough quality to grind out three points in the opener. At -120, this is the strongest play on the board.
Spread Pick: United States -0.5 (-120)
If you believe the US wins outright, the -0.5 spread at -120 is essentially the same bet as the moneyline with slightly better odds in some markets. Paraguay is defensively sound and will make things difficult, but the US has found a way to win each of the last three meetings by a single goal. The absence of Enciso tilts the attacking balance firmly in the Americans' favor, and the home crowd should provide the energy needed to get over the line.
Total Pick: Over 2.5 (+110)
The US has conceded 11 goals in its last four matches and has only one clean sheet in 13 games, suggesting Paraguay will find a way to score. At the same time, the US attack - led by a resurgent Christian Pulisic and the versatile Weston McKennie - should produce at least two goals against a Paraguay side that, while organized, is not impenetrable. The last meeting produced three goals (2-1), and with both teams needing a result in the group opener, the attacking intent should be high. The +110 price on the over offers solid value.
Top Player Prop Picks for Paraguay vs United States
Christian Pulisic - Over 0.5 Goals (+200): Pulisic ended a lengthy goal drought by scoring in the pre-World Cup friendly against Senegal, and as the USMNT's primary creative engine and penalty taker, he will be heavily involved in the attack. With Paraguay missing their best attacker in Enciso, the US will look to "Captain America" to lead the way in front of the home crowd.
Folarin Balogun - Over 0.5 Goals (+250) Balogun scored in the 2-1 friendly win over Paraguay last November and is the USMNT's most natural finisher in the box. Paraguay's backline is solid, but Balogun's movement and ability to find space in the penalty area should create opportunities, especially if the US controls possession and builds pressure.
Weston McKennie - Over 0.5 Assists (+350) McKennie's ability to make late runs into the box and combine with Pulisic and Balogun makes him a constant threat to set up a goal. He provided the assist in the last meeting against Paraguay and his chemistry with the attacking trio should be on display in a match where the US is expected to create multiple scoring chances.
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