Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Wednesday June 24 2026
Use Code WWWC The Houston Astros and Toronto Blue Jays close out their three-game series at Rogers Centre on Wednesday, June 24, 2026, with both teams looking to secure a crucial series victory in a highly anticipated matchup. This preview breaks down the pitching matchup, analyzes the best available odds, and delivers our top betting picks and MLB player props for tonight's clash.
Best Available Odds
Best Moneyline Odds: Houston Astros (+124 at FanDuel) / Toronto Blue Jays (-140 at Caesars)
Best Spread Odds: Houston Astros +1.5 (-170 at FanDuel) / Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (+143 at DraftKings)
Best Total Odds: Over 8.5 (-108 at Novig) / Under 8.5 (-109 at DraftKings)
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Game Info
Date: Wednesday, June 24, 2026
Time: 7:07 PM EDT
Location: Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON
TV: Sportsnet, Space City Home Network, TVA Sports
Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays Preview
The Houston Astros enter Wednesday at 38-43 after earning a dramatic 9-7 victory in 11 innings Tuesday. Houston has split the first two games of the series after Toronto won Monday's opener 4-2.
The Astros are not riding the 17-2 run described in the original draft. Houston remains below .500, sits fourth in the AL West, and has gone 3-2 across its last five games.
Tuesday's victory still demonstrated the lineup's power and resilience. Houston led 4-0, fell behind 6-4, tied the game during the ninth inning, and finally won when former Blue Jay Joey Loperfido hit a three-run home run with two outs in the 11th.
Yainer Díaz, Cam Smith, and Taylor Trammell hit consecutive home runs during the fourth inning. It was Houston's first sequence of three straight homers since 2019.
José Altuve opened the scoring with a first-inning double before scoring on an Isaac Paredes single. Altuve later singled during Houston's game-tying ninth-inning rally.
Paredes extended his hitting streak to eight games Tuesday. He has become an important source of contact, walks, and power behind Altuve and Yordan Alvarez.
Alvarez remains the central threat in Houston's lineup. He enters batting approximately .325 with a .436 on-base percentage, .640 slugging percentage, 25 home runs, and 56 RBIs.
His combination of contact and power gives Houston one of baseball's most dangerous individual hitters. Opponents must decide whether to challenge him or risk placing another runner on base ahead of Christian Walker and Paredes.
Walker has supplied 18 home runs despite an inconsistent batting average. His right-handed power becomes particularly important against a young starter who has experienced occasional command problems.
The Astros have hit 107 home runs, substantially more than Toronto's 80. Houston also enters with 367 runs scored compared with Toronto's 327.
Those totals show that the Astros possess more offensive production than their losing record initially suggests. Their problems have been driven largely by pitching, defense, injuries, and an inability to consistently protect leads.
Houston's pitching staff owns a 4.81 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. Those numbers place significant pressure on the offense to produce four or five runs almost every night.
The Astros are also dealing with an important lineup concern. Jeremy Peña remains day-to-day after leaving Monday's game with a hamstring cramp and sitting out Tuesday.
Peña participated in pregame activities Tuesday and may be available off the bench, but Houston cannot assume that its starting shortstop will return to a full workload Wednesday.
His absence removes one of the Astros' most athletic defenders and a hitter who helps connect the top and middle portions of the lineup. Raynel Delgado handled shortstop duties Tuesday.
Houston is also without Bryan Abreu, who is on the restricted list. Bennett Sousa, LaMonte Wade Jr., and several additional depth players remain unavailable.
The bullpen enters in a difficult position after Tuesday's 11-inning game. Houston used six pitchers, including Logan VanWey for the final two innings.
VanWey earned his first major-league victory but was essentially the final available reliever. The Astros may need greater length from Mike Burrows than his recent starting performances normally provide.
The Toronto Blue Jays enter at 39-40 after failing to protect leads during both the ninth and 11th innings Tuesday. The loss dropped Toronto below .500 and left the series tied entering the finale.
Toronto remains 22-19 at Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays have performed more consistently at home, where their contact-oriented lineup benefits from the stadium's dimensions and familiar indoor environment.
The Blue Jays collected 14 hits Tuesday. Daulton Varsho led the offense with three hits, including two doubles and a game-tying home run during the seventh inning.
Kazuma Okamoto also produced three hits and three RBIs. His two-run single during the eighth briefly gave Toronto a 6-4 advantage.
Okamoto leads the Blue Jays with 17 home runs and 49 RBIs. His power has become essential for a Toronto lineup that has received relatively little home-run production from Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Guerrero enters batting approximately .280 with a .362 on-base percentage. He has continued to reach base at a useful rate but has produced only four home runs and a .367 slugging percentage.
Those numbers fall well below his established power standard. Guerrero remains capable of driving the ball, but Toronto has needed Okamoto, Varsho, George Springer, and several supporting hitters to supply extra-base production.
Springer continues to work near the top of the order. He enters with eight home runs and can create immediate pressure through walks, extra-base hits, and aggressive baserunning.
Jesús Sánchez provides another important left-handed bat. His platoon advantage against Burrows gives Toronto a hitter capable of attacking the right-hander's fastball and breaking pitches.
Luis Urías made his Toronto debut Tuesday and immediately hit a two-run home run. His arrival gives the Blue Jays another experienced infielder while several regulars deal with injuries.
Ernie Clement is day-to-day, while Addison Barger, Anthony Santander, José Berríos, Bowden Francis, Max Scherzer, and Lenyn Sosa are among Toronto's unavailable players.
The Blue Jays have still produced a .251 team batting average, which is higher than Houston's .244 mark. Toronto's offensive approach depends more heavily on contact and baserunners than pure home-run volume.
Toronto hitters demonstrated that approach Monday against Hunter Brown. They forced the Houston starter to throw 85 pitches across only three innings by extending at-bats and refusing to chase two-strike pitches.
That patient strategy could be especially effective against Burrows, who enters with a 1.58 WHIP and has issued 30 walks across 79.1 innings.
The Blue Jays bullpen is also dealing with workload concerns. Toronto used seven pitchers Tuesday after Shane Bieber completed only 3.2 innings.
Tyler Rogers surrendered the game-tying rally during the ninth, while Braydon Fisher worked the final two innings and allowed Loperfido's decisive home run.
Toronto may not have every preferred late-inning reliever available. That increases the importance of Trey Yesavage working six or seven competitive innings.
Starting Pitchers and Pitching Matchup
The Astros will start right-hander Mike Burrows, who enters at 3-8 with a 5.79 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, and 66 strikeouts across 79.1 innings.
Burrows has made 14 starts and one relief appearance. Houston temporarily moved him to the bullpen before this series to provide a workload break and allow him to make mechanical adjustments.
The right-hander threw one scoreless relief inning against Cleveland on Friday. He is now returning to the rotation after receiving additional rest between starts.
Burrows leads Houston in starts and innings pitched, but his results have been among the weakest in the rotation. His 5.79 ERA is supported by substantial problems with hits, home runs, and baserunners.
He has allowed 95 hits across 79.1 innings. Opponents are not merely reaching through walks, as Burrows has struggled to prevent consistent hard contact inside the strike zone.
Home runs have become his most damaging weakness. Burrows has allowed 18, placing his rate above two home runs per nine innings.
Twelve of those home runs have been hit by left-handed batters. Lefties have also produced an average around .320 against him.
That split creates favourable matchups for Varsho, Sánchez, Nathan Lukes, and Andrés Giménez. Toronto can place several left-handed hitters around Guerrero, Okamoto, Springer, and Alejandro Kirk.
Burrows does not generate an extreme ground-ball rate. When his fastball or breaking pitches remain elevated, opponents can lift the ball and produce damage to the outfield gaps or seats.
His strikeout rate has also been modest. Burrows has recorded 66 strikeouts across 79.1 innings, equivalent to approximately 7.5 per nine innings.
He recorded five strikeouts across five innings against Kansas City during his most recent start. Burrows allowed four earned runs on seven hits and two walks during Houston's 8-7 victory.
The outing continued his pattern of allowing traffic even when Houston provides run support. Burrows has repeatedly needed more than 80 pitches to complete five innings.
The brief bullpen assignment may help his mechanics. Burrows worked on raising his arm angle after the Astros identified that his release had dropped from its previous level.
A mechanical adjustment can improve fastball shape and breaking-ball consistency, but one scoreless relief inning is not enough evidence to declare the problem solved.
Toronto presents one of the more difficult lineups for an inefficient starter. The Blue Jays do not strike out at an extreme rate and can force Burrows to throw additional pitches with two strikes.
Springer, Guerrero, Kirk, and Okamoto can attack mistakes from the right side. Varsho, Sánchez, Lukes, and Giménez create the greater platoon concern.
Varsho enters in particularly strong form after producing a home run and two doubles Tuesday. His left-handed power directly targets Burrows' most damaging season-long split.
Houston needs at least five competitive innings from Burrows after exhausting most of its bullpen. An early exit could force the Astros to use lower-leverage or recently recalled relievers against the middle of Toronto's lineup.
The Blue Jays counter with right-hander Trey Yesavage, who enters at 3-3 with a 3.76 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and 53 strikeouts across 55 innings.
Yesavage has made 10 starts rather than the nine listed in the original draft. He has allowed only 39 hits, demonstrating how difficult his pitch mix can be to square up when he controls the strike zone.
His splitter remains the foundation of that success. The pitch generates swings and misses, weak contact, and uncomfortable at-bats for hitters on both sides of the plate.
Yesavage has also allowed only five home runs. That represents a substantial advantage over Burrows, who has surrendered 18 despite pitching only 24 more innings.
Control has been the main concern. Yesavage has issued 25 walks, and several of his poorer starts have been defined by an inability to consistently locate his fastball early in counts.
He walked six Yankees and allowed five earned runs across five innings on June 12. That outing showed how quickly his pitch count can rise when opponents refuse to chase the splitter.
Yesavage responded with a much stronger start against Boston. He allowed four hits and three earned runs across 7.1 innings while issuing no walks and recording six strikeouts.
Two late home runs damaged his final line, but Yesavage had allowed only one run through seven innings. Toronto asked him to begin the eighth because its bullpen had been heavily used.
That experience is relevant again Wednesday. The Blue Jays need Yesavage to work deep after using seven pitchers Tuesday.
His overall season has included several sharp swings. Yesavage allowed six earned runs against Baltimore on June 5 and five against the Yankees one start later before rebounding against Boston.
The original draft correctly identified 11 earned runs across two of his previous three starts, but that framing ignored the quality and length of his latest performance.
Houston presents a dangerous power matchup. Alvarez, Walker, Paredes, Díaz, Smith, and Trammell can all punish pitches left over the plate.
Alvarez creates the most difficult assignment. He receives the platoon advantage and has produced one of baseball's strongest combinations of batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage.
Rogers Centre also plays favourably for left-handed home-run power. Yesavage must keep his fastball away from Alvarez's preferred areas and avoid falling into predictable counts.
Paredes provides a different problem. His elevated launch angle makes him dangerous against pitchers who allow fly-ball contact, particularly in a stadium with favourable right-handed power dimensions.
Houston's lineup can also work counts. Altuve, Alvarez, Walker, and Paredes are capable of refusing the splitter below the strike zone and forcing Yesavage to throw his fastball for strikes.
Peña's possible absence makes the Astros less complete. Houston would lose another contact hitter and become more dependent on lower-order players such as Matthews, Delgado, Trammell, and Loperfido.
Game Thesis: Toronto owns the more dependable starting pitcher and the stronger home profile, while Houston's supposed 17-2 surge does not exist. Yesavage has allowed substantially fewer hits and home runs than Burrows, giving the Blue Jays the clearest early pitching advantage. Houston still possesses the more powerful lineup and can attack a tired Toronto bullpen once Yesavage exits. Both relief groups were extended Tuesday, and Burrows' home-run vulnerability creates significant scoring potential for Toronto's left-handed hitters. The Blue Jays are the more likely winner, but Houston should remain competitive in a game that can reach double-digit runs.
Moneyline Pick: Toronto Blue Jays (-140)
Toronto is the preferred moneyline side. The Blue Jays receive the stronger starting pitcher and enter with a 22-19 home record.
Yesavage owns a 3.76 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and .201 opponent batting average. Burrows carries a 5.79 ERA and 1.58 WHIP while allowing 95 hits and 18 home runs.
The difference in contact management is substantial. Yesavage has allowed 39 hits and five homers across 55 innings, while Burrows has surrendered repeated hard contact throughout the season.
Toronto can also construct its lineup to attack Burrows' platoon vulnerability. Varsho, Sánchez, Lukes, and Giménez are capable of batting from the left side.
Burrows has allowed left-handed hitters to bat around .320, and 12 of his 18 home runs allowed have come against them. That creates opportunities throughout Toronto's order rather than limiting the advantage to one hitter.
The Blue Jays should also be able to extend at-bats. Burrows rarely works deep when opponents force him to throw additional pitches with two strikes.
Toronto's bullpen introduces significant risk. Seven pitchers appeared Tuesday, while Fisher and Rogers both worked during the late innings.
Houston also possesses enough power to change the game quickly. Alvarez, Walker, Paredes, Díaz, Smith, and Trammell give the Astros multiple home-run threats.
Yesavage must therefore provide six or seven competitive innings. An early exit would eliminate much of Toronto's pitching advantage.
The starting-pitcher gap and home field still justify the favourite position. Toronto is more likely to win a game around 6-4 or 6-5 than dominate Houston from beginning to end.
Spread Pick: Houston Astros +1.5 (-170)
Houston +1.5 is the preferred standard run-line side, although the expensive price limits its overall value.
The Astros have enough offensive power to remain within one run even if Burrows allows early damage. Houston has hit 107 home runs and scored 40 more runs than Toronto.
Tuesday's game demonstrated that resilience. The Astros overcame a two-run ninth-inning deficit and continued scoring after Toronto moved ahead again in extra innings.
Alvarez gives Houston an elite middle-order hitter capable of erasing a deficit with one swing. Walker and Paredes provide additional power behind him.
Yesavage has also experienced recent volatility. He allowed 11 earned runs across his starts against Baltimore and New York before rebounding in Boston.
His walk rate creates opportunities for Houston to place runners aboard without producing several hits. One extra-base hit after a walk could immediately keep the Astros inside the run-line number.
Toronto's bullpen is the primary reason to prefer Houston with the additional run. The Blue Jays needed seven pitchers Tuesday and failed to close the game during both the ninth and 11th innings.
Burrows remains the obvious threat to this position. If Toronto's left-handed hitters produce several early extra-base hits, the Blue Jays could build a multi-run advantage before Houston reaches the bullpen.
The Astros' own relief group is also depleted. Houston used six pitchers Tuesday and may not have its preferred setup structure available.
Projected finals such as 6-5, 5-4, or 6-4 keep Houston competitive. Toronto is the preferred outright winner, but the Astros have enough offense to make a one-run result realistic.
⭐ Best Bet - Total Pick: Over 8.5 (-108)
Over 8.5 is the strongest game wager. The matchup combines a vulnerable Houston starter, two powerful middle orders, favourable indoor hitting conditions, and two bullpens that were heavily used Tuesday.
Burrows presents the clearest scoring path. He owns a 5.79 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, and has allowed 18 home runs across 79.1 innings.
His problems against left-handed hitters are particularly concerning. Toronto can attack with Varsho, Sánchez, Lukes, and Giménez around its established right-handed hitters.
Burrows may also have a shorter workload after temporarily moving to the bullpen. Even if Houston allows him to throw a normal starter's pitch count, his season-long inefficiency makes six innings unlikely.
The Astros bullpen then becomes exposed. Houston used six pitchers Tuesday, and VanWey worked two innings as the final available reliever.
Toronto's relief staff faces similar concerns. The Blue Jays used seven pitchers, while several high-leverage arms were asked to protect late leads.
Houston can produce against Yesavage even if the Toronto starter begins effectively. The Astros have hit 107 home runs and enter with significantly more power than their losing record suggests.
Alvarez is producing an OPS above 1.000, while Walker has hit 18 home runs. Paredes, Díaz, Smith, Altuve, and Trammell provide additional damage throughout the order.
Yesavage has also shown that his control can disappear. He issued six walks against the Yankees and allowed 11 earned runs across two of his last three starts.
His strong outing against Boston prevents the Over from becoming automatic. Yesavage can miss bats and has allowed only five home runs all season.
The total does not require another 9-7 result. Scores such as 6-3, 5-4, 6-4, or 6-5 would all clear 8.5.
The combination of Burrows' contact problems and two compromised bullpens makes a projected final around 6-5 realistic. Toronto is the more likely winner, but both teams should contribute enough offense to push the game past eight runs.
Top Player Prop Picks
Trey Yesavage Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115 at FanDuel) Yesavage has recorded 53 strikeouts across 55 innings, placing his average slightly above five per start.
The current line requires six strikeouts. He has reached that number in several appearances, including six during his latest start against Boston.
His workload creates a path to the Over, particularly because Toronto needs length after using seven relievers Tuesday. Yesavage worked into the eighth inning against Boston and could receive another opportunity to pitch deep.
The Under argument comes from Houston's lineup construction and Yesavage's control. The Astros can use several experienced right-handed hitters capable of extending at-bats.
Yesavage has also issued 25 walks. When his splitter finishes outside the chase area, opponents can force him into fastball counts and raise his pitch total without adding strikeouts.
He issued six walks against the Yankees and completed only five innings. A similar command performance would make six strikeouts difficult even if Houston fails to score heavily.
Houston may also start six or more right-handed hitters. Yesavage has demonstrated reverse-split tendencies, reducing the automatic advantage normally associated with a right-handed pitcher facing a right-heavy lineup.
Altuve, Walker, Paredes, Díaz, Smith, and the lower order can put enough balls in play to prevent Yesavage from reaching an elevated strikeout total.
Five or fewer strikeouts across approximately five or six innings is a reasonable outcome. Yesavage can pitch well enough to support a Toronto victory without clearing 5.5.
Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Total Bases (+103 at Caesars) Alvarez enters batting approximately .325 with a .640 slugging percentage, 25 home runs, and 56 RBIs.
He has been one of baseball's most complete offensive players, combining elite power with a batting average and walk rate that prevent opponents from simply pitching around him.
The left-handed slugger receives the platoon advantage against Yesavage. Houston should bat him second, creating four or five plate appearances in a competitive game.
Rogers Centre also plays favourably for left-handed home-run power. Alvarez does not need a perfect pull-side swing to create extra-base damage in Toronto.
One double, triple, or home run would immediately clear the prop. He can also reach two total bases through a pair of singles.
Yesavage has allowed only five home runs and can neutralize power when his splitter is working. That represents the strongest argument against the prop.
Alvarez's plate coverage gives him a better chance than most hitters to handle the splitter. He can also wait for a fastball if Yesavage falls behind in the count.
Toronto's bullpen composition provides another advantage. Alvarez should receive favourable matchups after Yesavage exits because the Blue Jays have limited same-handed relief depth.
The plus-money price is significantly more attractive than laying more than -200 on a basic one-hit prop. Alvarez's power and expected plate-appearance volume support Over 1.5 total bases.
Daulton Varsho Over 1.5 Total Bases (+135 at Fanatics) Varsho enters after producing three hits Tuesday, including two doubles and a game-tying home run.
He finished the game with eight total bases and repeatedly drove the ball against both Houston's starter and bullpen.
The matchup against Burrows is especially favourable. Left-handed hitters are batting around .320 against the Houston right-hander.
Burrows has also allowed 12 of his 18 home runs to left-handed batters. His low ground-ball rate creates additional opportunities for Varsho to elevate pitches into the outfield gaps or seats.
Varsho does not need another home run to cash the prop. One double or triple would be sufficient, as would two singles.
He should bat in the middle portion of Toronto's lineup and receive multiple opportunities with Guerrero, Kirk, Okamoto, and the surrounding hitters creating traffic.
Houston's depleted bullpen strengthens the late-game position. Varsho should receive at least one plate appearance against a reliever who either worked Tuesday or is operating outside the Astros' preferred high-leverage structure.
His season-long batting average has not made him an automatic hit proposition, but the total-bases market rewards the extra-base power that forms the strongest part of his offensive profile.
The +135 price provides a worthwhile return in a matchup that directly targets Burrows' most damaging platoon weakness.
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