Phoenix Mercury vs Minnesota Lynx Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Monday July 13 2026

The Phoenix Mercury visit the Minnesota Lynx on Monday night trying to recover from one of the most lopsided defeats in franchise history. Phoenix fell to 8-16 after a 106-58 loss to Las Vegas, while Minnesota improved to 17-6 with a 90-85 victory over New York.

Minnesota has already defeated Phoenix twice this season and enters with decisive advantages in recent form, depth, and defensive execution. Bettors evaluating the individual matchups can also review the latest WNBA player props before the 9:00 PM EDT tipoff.

Best Available Odds for Phoenix Mercury vs Minnesota Lynx

• Moneyline: Phoenix Mercury +568 | Minnesota Lynx -714
• Spread: Phoenix Mercury +13.5 (-123) | Minnesota Lynx -13.5 (-107)
• Total: Over 169.5 (-102) | Under 169.5 (-104)

Odds and Line Movement

Minnesota opened as approximately a 10.5-point favorite before the spread moved through -12.5 and reached -13.5 at several sportsbooks. The adjustment reflects Phoenix's 48-point loss to Las Vegas, Minnesota's 17-6 record, and the Lynx's two victories over the Mercury this season.

The total has moved in the opposite direction. An opening number of 170.5 has fallen to 169.5 despite Minnesota scoring 90 points against New York and producing 111 during its most recent meeting with Phoenix.

The moneyline has also become considerably more expensive. Minnesota is available around -714, requiring bettors to risk more than seven units to win one. Phoenix has moved above +550, but the Mercury's poor straight-up and spread records make the large return difficult to treat as a reliable upset opportunity.

Minnesota is 17-6 overall but only 7-4 at home. The Lynx remain the substantially more likely winner, although their home record does not support the probability implied by the current moneyline price.

Phoenix is 5-8 on the road and 8-16 overall. The Mercury have won often enough away from home to make the moneyline price appear tempting, but they are also 8-15 against the spread and enter after being outscored by 48 points.

The current WNBA betting trends create a clearer distinction in the spread market. Minnesota is 13-8 against the number, while Phoenix has covered only eight of 23 graded games.

The total presents a less decisive trend. Minnesota has played 13 of 22 graded totals over, while Phoenix is 11-12. The over remains possible because of the Lynx's scoring ceiling, but the spread offers the stronger position.

Game Info

• Date: Monday, July 13, 2026
• Time: 9:00 PM EDT
• Location: Target Center, Minneapolis, Minnesota
• TV: Peacock, NBCSN, and Victory+

Phoenix Mercury vs Minnesota Lynx Preview

Phoenix enters after losing 106-58 to Las Vegas on Saturday. The 48-point margin matched one of the largest defeats in WNBA history and extended the Mercury's losing streak to three games.

The Mercury were overwhelmed from the opening quarter and never established a sustainable offensive rhythm. Las Vegas controlled the paint, forced difficult perimeter attempts, and repeatedly converted defensive stops into transition opportunities.

Kahleah Copper remains Phoenix's leading scorer at approximately 19.5 points per game. She supplies the Mercury with their best source of perimeter shot creation, but opponents have increasingly concentrated their strongest wing defender on her while challenging Phoenix's other players to generate offense.

Copper must be aggressive without allowing Minnesota to force her into contested pull-up jumpers. The Lynx can use Kayla McBride, Courtney Williams, and multiple wing combinations to change the initial matchup and prevent Copper from becoming comfortable.

Alyssa Thomas provides the Mercury with their most complete offensive organizer. She leads Phoenix in assists and rebounding while creating scoring opportunities through drives, post touches, transition pushes, and passes from the middle of the floor.

Thomas becomes especially important against Minnesota because the Lynx apply pressure without regularly compromising their defensive structure. Phoenix needs Thomas to protect the ball, attack the paint, and locate shooters before Minnesota can recover.

Natasha Mack remains out with a foot injury, reducing Phoenix's available size and rim protection. Her absence also places additional rebounding responsibility on Thomas, DeWanna Bonner, Nia Coffey, and the Mercury's guards.

Sami Whitcomb is probable as Phoenix continues managing her return from a knee procedure. Whitcomb can provide perimeter spacing, but she remains in the process of rebuilding her conditioning and rhythm after a lengthy absence.

The Mercury need more production from their secondary options. Bonner, Valériane Ayayi, Monique Akoa Makani, and Coffey cannot allow Minnesota to load its defense toward Copper and Thomas on every possession.

Phoenix's defense presents the larger concern. The Mercury allowed Las Vegas to score 106 points despite several Aces starters playing reduced minutes. Minnesota does not have A'ja Wilson, but the Lynx possess enough balanced scoring to attack every weak point in Phoenix's rotation.

Minnesota enters after defeating New York 90-85 in a physical game at Target Center. The Lynx built a 15-point advantage, lost the lead during a major third-quarter Liberty run, and then executed more effectively during the final minutes.

Kayla McBride led Minnesota with 25 points and made five three-pointers. She scored 14 points in the fourth quarter and repeatedly answered whenever New York threatened to take control.

McBride's shooting creates a difficult assignment for Phoenix. The Mercury must remain attached to her around screens without opening driving lanes for Olivia Miles or interior opportunities for Natasha Howard.

Miles continued her outstanding rookie season with 23 points, five rebounds, four assists, and four made three-pointers against New York. She has become Minnesota's leading scorer and primary offensive initiator while Napheesa Collier remains sidelined.

Miles can attack Phoenix through transition possessions, pick-and-rolls, and pull-up shooting. The Mercury have struggled to keep opposing guards out of the paint, and sending extra help toward Miles creates opportunities for McBride and Courtney Williams.

Howard added 16 points and nine rebounds against the Liberty. She gives Minnesota a dependable interior scorer, offensive rebounder, and defender who can switch onto smaller players without surrendering the paint.

Howard should receive repeated opportunities against a Phoenix frontcourt missing Mack. The Mercury can use Thomas and Coffey against her, but both players also carry important responsibilities elsewhere in the defensive game plan.

Collier remains out with an ankle injury, although she has been cleared to resume portions of practice. Minnesota has adapted impressively without its leading star, receiving increased production from Miles, McBride, Howard, Williams, and Coffey.

Emma Cechova is also out with a knee injury. The Lynx still possess enough frontcourt depth to control the matchup, particularly with Howard playing at a high level on both ends.

Minnesota's greatest advantage comes from its ability to create efficient offense without relying on one scorer. Miles can initiate, McBride can work away from the ball, Williams can control the middle of the floor, and Howard can attack the paint.

Phoenix must defend every stage of the possession. The Mercury cannot concentrate entirely on the initial ball handler because Minnesota moves the ball quickly and has enough shooting to punish late rotations.

The Lynx should also receive opportunities in transition. Phoenix's offensive struggles against Las Vegas produced several long rebounds and live-ball turnovers, allowing the Aces to attack before the Mercury could establish their defense.

Phoenix's best route is to keep the game competitive offensively. The Mercury need Copper to score efficiently, Thomas to approach a double-double, and Whitcomb or Bonner to provide enough shooting to prevent Minnesota from building another early double-digit lead.

The problem is that Phoenix has not consistently maintained that level of production for four quarters. The Mercury can play Minnesota evenly for stretches, but scoring droughts and defensive breakdowns have repeatedly allowed stronger teams to create separation.

Minnesota has already shown that it can capitalize on those weaknesses. The Lynx can defend Phoenix's first action, control the defensive glass, and push the pace when the Mercury are unable to organize after a miss or turnover.

Historic Head-to-Head Stats and Analysis

Minnesota has won both meetings this season. The Lynx defeated Phoenix 88-84 on May 12 before producing a dominant 111-77 road victory on June 1.

The first meeting was competitive throughout. Howard finished with 14 points and 11 rebounds, while Coffey made a late three-pointer that helped Minnesota protect a four-point victory.

The second meeting followed a completely different pattern. Minnesota controlled the pace, created efficient perimeter opportunities, and repeatedly punished Phoenix's defensive rotations during the 34-point victory.

The Lynx have already demonstrated that they can defeat Phoenix through two game scripts. They survived a close half-court battle during the first meeting and then overwhelmed the Mercury through pace and offensive balance in the rematch.

Phoenix did have success against Minnesota during the 2025 postseason. The Mercury won three consecutive playoff meetings, including an overtime victory and two controlled performances later in the series.

The current Minnesota lineup has responded by winning both regular-season meetings in 2026. Miles has changed the Lynx's offensive structure, while Howard and McBride have taken on larger responsibilities during Collier's absence.

Phoenix must prevent Minnesota from establishing early control. The Mercury have struggled to respond when opponents build large first-half advantages, and another slow start would allow the Lynx to manage the game without taking unnecessary offensive risks.

The spread has reached a demanding number, but Minnesota has already defeated Phoenix by 34 points this season. The Lynx also enter with substantially better spread results, while the Mercury have covered only eight of 23 graded games.

Minnesota's 7-4 home record makes the moneyline less attractive than the matchup itself. The Lynx are the stronger team, but laying more than -700 requires a level of certainty that the venue-specific results do not justify.

Phoenix's large underdog price is not automatically valuable. The Mercury are coming off a historically poor performance, remain one of the league's least reliable spread teams, and have already been overwhelmed by Minnesota this season.

The spread offers a better way to support the Lynx. Minnesota can control the game without requiring bettors to pay an extreme moneyline price, and the Mercury have repeatedly failed to remain within inflated numbers.

The total remains playable only as a secondary position. Minnesota has enough offensive balance to approach the mid-90s, but Phoenix's contribution is difficult to project after scoring only 58 against Las Vegas.

Game Thesis: Minnesota should control the game through its balanced perimeter attack, interior advantage, and superior defensive organization. Phoenix may produce a better offensive performance than it managed Saturday, but the Mercury have not defended or covered consistently enough to support them at the current number. The Lynx are projected to win 96-77, making Minnesota -13.5 the best bet.

Best Bet - Spread: Minnesota Lynx -13.5 (-107)

Minnesota owns the strongest combination of straight-up and spread results in the matchup. The Lynx are 17-6 overall and 13-8 against the number, while Phoenix is 8-16 straight up and 8-15 against the spread.

The current spread is large, but Minnesota has already demonstrated that it can create this type of margin against Phoenix. The Lynx won the June meeting by 34 points after scoring 111 and repeatedly breaking down the Mercury's defense.

Phoenix's latest performance creates additional concern. The Mercury lost by 48 to Las Vegas and struggled to generate efficient offense even after the Aces reduced their starters' minutes.

Minnesota does not need one player to dominate to create separation. Miles, McBride, Howard, and Williams can each attack a different area of the Phoenix defense, making it difficult for the Mercury to remove the Lynx's preferred options.

Phoenix also lacks the frontcourt depth to control the glass. Mack's absence leaves the Mercury vulnerable against Howard and Minnesota's other available forwards, particularly when Thomas is pulled away from the basket.

The line has moved three points from the opening number, but Minnesota still has a realistic path to a margin in the high teens. The Lynx can create separation during the middle quarters and maintain it through their defensive depth.

Total Pick: Over 169.5 (-102)

The over remains a secondary lean rather than the strongest wager. Minnesota has scored 88 and 111 points in its two victories over Phoenix and should again create efficient opportunities through Miles, McBride, Howard, and Williams.

Phoenix should improve from Saturday simply by returning to its normal offensive structure. Thomas can organize possessions, Copper can attack in transition, and Whitcomb's probable availability adds another perimeter option.

The concern is Phoenix's ability to contribute enough scoring. The Mercury have endured extended offensive droughts during their losing streak and may struggle to reach the high 70s against Minnesota's organized defense.

A Lynx score in the mid-90s gives the over a realistic chance, but Phoenix still needs to produce a respectable response. That uncertainty keeps the total below the spread in the wagering hierarchy.

A projected 96-77 result produces 173 points. The over can cash without an unusually close game, although Minnesota -13.5 remains the more dependable position.

Top Player Prop Picks for Phoenix Mercury vs Minnesota Lynx

Olivia Miles Over 19.5 Points (+122): Miles scored 23 against New York and continues to carry a larger offensive role while Collier is sidelined. Phoenix has struggled to contain attacking guards, giving Miles opportunities to score through transition drives, pick-and-rolls, and pull-up threes.

Kayla McBride Over 15.5 Points (-138): McBride scored 25 points and made five three-pointers against the Liberty. Phoenix must devote significant attention to Miles and Howard, leaving McBride with opportunities around screens and after defensive rotations.

Natasha Howard Over 8.5 Rebounds (+104): Howard collected nine rebounds against New York and recorded 11 during Minnesota's first victory over Phoenix. Mack's absence reduces the Mercury's frontcourt size, giving Howard a favorable path to offensive rebounds and controlled defensive boards.

Prediction: Minnesota Lynx 96, Phoenix Mercury 77