Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Saturday July 11 2026
Use Code WWWC The Phoenix Mercury and Las Vegas Aces meet Saturday evening at Michelob ULTRA Arena after producing dramatically different results over their first two meetings. Phoenix opened the season with a 33-point victory in Las Vegas, but the Aces answered with a controlled 86-76 win in June and enter the third matchup as substantial home favorites.
Las Vegas also welcomes A'ja Wilson back into the center of its offense after the four-time MVP delivered 32 points and 10 rebounds in her return from an ankle injury. Bettors evaluating the individual matchups can review the latest WNBA player props before the 6:00 PM EDT tipoff on NBCSN.
Best Available Odds for Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces
- Moneyline: Phoenix Mercury +340 | Las Vegas Aces -476
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury +9.5 (-112) | Las Vegas Aces -9.5 (-108)
- Total: Over 171.5 (-112) | Under 171.5 (-108)
Odds and Line Movement
Las Vegas opened as a 10.5-point favorite before the spread moved to -9.5. The one-point adjustment toward Phoenix reflects the Aces' inconsistent performance against large numbers and the Mercury's ability to remain competitive in several recent road games.
The total has experienced the larger move. An early number of 173.5 has fallen to 171.5, with some sportsbooks briefly showing 172.5 during the adjustment. The move toward the under fits a matchup involving two teams that generally prefer controlled half-court possessions rather than sustained transition basketball.
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Las Vegas has been one of the league's strongest straight-up teams, but its spread performance has been much less convincing. The Aces entered the weekend with nine covers in 20 graded games and failed to cover a 9.5-point spread in Thursday's 88-80 victory over Portland.
Phoenix has also struggled against the number, covering eight of its first 22 lined games. The broader WNBA betting trends make the total more appealing than laying a large spread with a Las Vegas team that has frequently won without producing the required margin.
The moneyline has remained expensive. Las Vegas is priced near -476, while Phoenix is available around +340. The market clearly expects the Aces to win, but the falling spread shows less confidence that they will separate by double digits.
Game Info
- Date: Saturday, July 11, 2026
- Time: 6:00 PM EDT
- Location: Michelob ULTRA Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
- TV: NBCSN
Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces Preview
Phoenix enters at 8-15 after a 92-89 home loss to the Indiana Fever. The Mercury held a second-half advantage and remained within one possession during the final minute, but Indiana created the better late-game shots and received 29 points from Kelsey Mitchell.
Alyssa Thomas led Phoenix with 22 points, seven assists, and six rebounds. She attacked the basket consistently, created opportunities for teammates, and gave the Mercury a chance despite another uneven perimeter shooting performance.
Thomas remains the engine of the Phoenix offense. Her ability to rebound, initiate transition possessions, post smaller defenders, and locate cutters allows the Mercury to function without relying on a traditional point guard. Las Vegas must prevent her from controlling the middle of the floor and forcing its defense into repeated rotations.
Kahleah Copper gives Phoenix its most dangerous pure scorer. She can create from the perimeter, attack in transition, and punish defenders who give her space around screens. Copper scored 26 points in the June meeting with Las Vegas, although the Aces prevented the rest of the Mercury from providing enough support.
Phoenix also welcomed Sami Whitcomb back against Indiana. Whitcomb played 11 minutes in her season debut after recovering from a knee procedure and missed all five of her three-point attempts. Her status remains questionable because the Mercury are managing her return rather than immediately placing her back into a full rotation.
The Mercury need Whitcomb's shooting, but they cannot expect her to transform the offense immediately. Phoenix must continue leaning on Thomas, Copper, DeWanna Bonner, Valériane Ayayi, and Monique Akoa Makani while Whitcomb works toward game conditioning.
Natasha Mack remains out with a foot injury, reducing Phoenix's available size against Wilson and NaLyssa Smith. The Mercury may use smaller frontcourt combinations and ask Bonner to defend above her usual positional assignment, but those lineups could become vulnerable on the defensive glass.
Las Vegas improved to 16-6 with an 88-80 road victory over Portland. The Aces led throughout the game and created separation late in the third quarter after Portland had remained within single digits for most of the night.
Wilson showed no visible limitation in her return from a three-game absence. She scored 32 points on 10-for-19 shooting, made 11 of 13 free throws, grabbed 10 rebounds, and played 30 minutes. Her immediate production restored the interior scoring and defensive presence Las Vegas lacked during her absence.
The Aces' offense is significantly more difficult to defend when Wilson is available. Opponents must commit help toward the paint, which creates perimeter opportunities for Jackie Young, Chelsea Gray, Jewell Loyd, and the supporting shooters.
Young was excellent against Portland, finishing with 19 points, 11 assists, and three steals. She controlled the tempo, attacked switches, and consistently found Wilson before the Fire could establish their interior defense.
Young's versatility is particularly important against Phoenix. She can defend Copper for stretches, pressure the Mercury's secondary ball handlers, and initiate offense when Gray is working away from the ball. The Aces can also use Young as a screener to create mismatches against smaller Phoenix guards.
Gray continues to organize the half-court offense, although her scoring has not been as consistent as her passing. Las Vegas does not need her to force shots when Wilson and Young are productive. Gray can instead control the pace, enter the ball into favorable areas, and attack when Phoenix sends additional defenders toward Wilson.
Smith has become another important interior option. She supplies efficient finishing, offensive rebounding, and enough mobility to defend away from the basket. Her presence allows Las Vegas to preserve Wilson's energy and maintain frontcourt size when the bench enters.
Dana Evans is questionable as she attempts to return from a leg injury. The Aces waived Chennedy Carter earlier in the week, placing additional importance on Evans as a potential reserve scorer. Las Vegas should still have enough backcourt creation without her, but the second unit becomes thinner if she remains unavailable.
The matchup should be played primarily in the half court. Phoenix relies on Thomas to organize possessions and create advantages through strength and passing. Las Vegas is at its best when Gray and Young control the pace and Wilson receives the ball before the defense can load the paint.
Neither team needs to chase an accelerated game. The Aces have a significant talent advantage and can create efficient offense through Wilson without increasing the possession count. Phoenix has a better chance to remain competitive by shortening the game and preventing Las Vegas from producing extended transition runs.
Historic Head-to-Head Stats and Analysis
Phoenix and Las Vegas have split two meetings this season. The Mercury delivered a stunning 99-66 victory in the season opener on May 9, while the Aces responded with an 86-76 road win on June 17.
The opener remains one of the strangest results of the season. Phoenix controlled every area of the game, shot efficiently, and prevented Las Vegas from establishing its usual offensive rhythm. Thomas distributed the ball effectively, while the Mercury repeatedly created open perimeter attempts.
Las Vegas made the necessary adjustments in the second meeting. The Aces limited Phoenix to 76 points, protected the paint more effectively, and forced the Mercury to rely on contested perimeter shots. Copper scored 26, but Thomas finished with only 10 points despite recording 11 assists.
The Aces have won eight of the last 10 meetings overall. That stretch includes their four-game victory over Phoenix in the 2025 WNBA Finals, when Las Vegas repeatedly executed better during the final minutes of close games.
Five of the last 10 meetings have finished over the total and five have stayed under. The two 2026 games produced 165 and 162 points, both below Saturday's current number of 171.5.
The matchup is different with Wilson fully available, but her presence does not automatically require a high-scoring projection. Las Vegas can use Wilson to create efficient half-court offense while also controlling Phoenix around the basket. Her rebounding limits the Mercury's second chances and allows the Aces to dictate when they want to run.
Phoenix's best route involves Thomas controlling the tempo and keeping the Mercury organized. She must prevent live-ball turnovers, force Las Vegas to defend deep into possessions, and create enough open shots for Copper, Bonner, and Ayayi.
The Mercury also need to avoid excessive help on Wilson. Sending multiple defenders too early creates clean perimeter opportunities for Young and Gray. Phoenix may be better served allowing Wilson to score difficult two-point baskets while remaining attached to Las Vegas' secondary options.
Las Vegas can attack the opposite way. Wilson should receive repeated touches against a Phoenix frontcourt missing Mack, while Young can pressure Copper and make the Mercury's leading scorer work on both ends.
The spread requires Las Vegas to win comfortably, but the total only requires both teams to remain below the mid-80s. The Aces have the defensive personnel to hold Phoenix around 80, while the Mercury can slow the game enough to keep Las Vegas below its highest offensive range.
Game Thesis: Las Vegas should control the interior and win behind Wilson, Young, and a deeper available rotation, but Phoenix can remain competitive by slowing the pace and running its offense through Thomas. The Aces have not consistently covered large spreads, while both 2026 meetings finished below the current total. Las Vegas is projected to win 88-79, making under 171.5 the best bet.
Best Bet - Total: Under 171.5 (-108)
The total has already moved down from 173.5, but the matchup still points toward a game in the 160s. Both meetings this season remained below 166 points, including the first game when Phoenix scored 99.
Las Vegas has little reason to force the pace. Wilson provides a dependable half-court scoring option, Gray can manage long possessions, and the Aces can create favorable shots without turning the game into a transition contest.
Phoenix should also prefer a controlled game. The Mercury are missing frontcourt depth, Whitcomb remains limited, and their best creator is Thomas, whose strengths are most valuable when she can read the defense and organize the offense from the middle of the floor.
Las Vegas held Phoenix to 76 points in the June meeting. The Aces may not repeat that exact defensive performance, but holding the Mercury below 82 creates a strong path to the under. A projected 88-79 final produces 167 points and leaves room below the current number.
Top Player Prop Picks for Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces
A'ja Wilson Over 9.5 Rebounds (-110): Wilson grabbed 10 rebounds in only 30 minutes against Portland and has averaged more rebounds at home than on the road. Phoenix is missing Natasha Mack, leaving the Mercury with fewer natural options for keeping Wilson away from the offensive and defensive glass.
Alyssa Thomas Over 8.5 Assists (-101): Thomas recorded 11 assists in the June meeting and remains responsible for creating most of Phoenix's organized offense. Las Vegas is likely to send help when she attacks the paint, giving Thomas opportunities to find Copper, Bonner, and Phoenix's perimeter shooters.
Chelsea Gray Under 12.5 Points (-135): Gray can control this matchup without taking a high number of shots. Wilson and Young should carry most of the scoring load, while Gray focuses on initiating offense and attacking only when Phoenix leaves her open late in possessions.
Prediction: Las Vegas Aces 88, Phoenix Mercury 79
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