Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces, Picks and Prediction for Friday, October 3, 2025

The Phoenix Mercury visit the Las Vegas Aces on Friday for the first game of the best-of-seven WNBA Finals series. The Mercury reached the Finals by defeating the Minnesota Lynx 3-1 in their semifinal series, losing the first game, then winning three straight over the regular-season champions. Las Vegas struggled a bit more reaching the Finals after being extended to a full five games by Indiana. The Aces beat the Fever 107-98 in overtime on Tuesday to clinch the series. Neither team has any players listed on its respective injury reports. Make sure to read this in-depth Phoenix Mercury vs Indiana Fever prediction. Court control starts here—see why our WNBA picks for Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces prediction deliver results.

Phoenix is in its first Finals since 2021

The Phoenix Mercury have not played in the WNBA Finals since 2021 and have not won the title since 2014. The Mercury have won the title three times. Phoenix revamped its roster during the offseason, trading for Alyssa Thomas and Satou Sabally. The two joined guard Kahleah Copper giving the Mercury a strong trio. Phoenix finished fourth in the regular season. The Mercury beat New York in three games in the opening round, followed by its 3-1 win over the Lynx in the semifinals. Phoenix defeated both of last season’s finalists en route to the Finals.

Alyssa Thomas has been the star for Phoenix during the postseason, leading the Mercury in scoring, rebounding, and assists, with averages of 18.6 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 9.1 assists per game. Satou Sabally is the second-leading scorer in the postseason at 17.9 points per game. Thomas also leads the Mercury in steals at 2.0 per game, while Natasha Mack has been a presence in the paint, leading Phoenix in rejections, averaging 0.7 blocked shots per game.

Las Vegas is in its third Finals in the last four seasons

Las Vegas will be playing in its third Finals in the last four seasons, with titles in 2022 and 2023. Las Vegas played like a long shot to reach the WNBA Finals during the first 28 games of their 44-game regular season, sitting 14-14. But ended the regular season with 16 straight wins and fended off a tough Indiana club in five games to reach the Finals. Las Vegas has not looked as dominant during the postseason as it was during its 16-game winning streak through the end of the season, but it has found a way to win and will be playing for a third title in four years.

Just like the regular season, A’ja Wilson leads the Aces in scoring, rebounding, steals, and blocked shots during the postseason, averaging 26.0 points, 9.1 rebounds, 2.6 steals, and 2.8 blocked shots per game. Chelsa Gray was the regular season leader in assists, and once again leads in the postseason, averaging 7.2 dishes per game. Jackie Young has had a strong postseason, averaging 20.5 (2nd) points per game, with 5.3 (2nd) assists, and 4.8 (2nd) rebounds per game.

Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Pick

Spread Pick for Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury

• Las Vegas Aces -3 (5 units)

As mentioned previously, Las Vegas has not been the dominant force in the postseason as it was the final 16 games of the regular season, which were all wins, but has the strength at both ends to control games, and at some point late, pull away and win. Las Vegas was 3-1 straight up and against the spread this season versus Phoenix, losing the first meeting but winning each of the last three. The Aces were just 27-24-1 ATS this season, while Phoenix was 26-24-1 ATS, but over the final 16 games of the regular season, Las Vegas was 16-0 SU and 11-5-1 ATS. Phoenix is 5-2 ATS in seven postseason games, but faces its stiffest test to date against Las Vegas as the Aces have been the dominant force in the league since August 3, when they started their 16-game winning streak. Las Vegas is 16-8 ATS in its last 24 games overall.

Over/Under Pick for Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury

• Under 161 (4 units)

The total finished under in three of four games head-to-head between the two. Defense will be a key in this matchup as Phoenix knows it must slow down the offensive juggernaut of the Aces if it wants to win the Finals. Phoenix has had the best defense in the postseason, holding opponents to 75.9 points per game on 40.2% shooting.