Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury Picks and Prediction for Friday, October 10, 2025

On Friday, the Las Vegas Aces visit the Phoenix Mercury for the fourth game of the WNBA Finals best-of-seven series. The opening tip-off is at 8:00 p.m. ET and will be televised on ESPN. Las Vegas defeated Phoenix 90-88 in Game 3 on Wednesday, holding off the Mercury late, with A’ja Wilson scoring the winning basket with just 0.9 seconds remaining. Las Vegas does not have any players listed on its injury report. Phoenix’s Satou Sabally left the game late with a head injury, but her status for Friday is not known. Make sure to read this in-depth Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury prediction. Ready to rebound? Check out our top WNBA picks for the Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury prediction today.

Las Vegas is one win away from the WNBA title

The Las Vegas Aces have won each of the first three games of the WNBA Finals and can clinch the WNBA title with a victory on Friday. A’ja Wilson made history in Wednesday’s Game 3 by becoming the first player in the WNBA Finals to post consecutive games of at least 25 points and 10 rebounds, when scoring 34 points and grabbing 14 boards. Wilson's final basket with 0.9 seconds remaining sealed the victory.

Las Vegas won on Wednesday despite being outscored in the 4th quarter 29-14. Las Vegas was in foul trouble during the fourth quarter and, after holding Phoenix to just 16 points in the third quarter, fell apart and nearly squandered a 17-point lead. Wilson is leading Las Vegas during the postseason in scoring with 25.7 points per game, rebounding with 9.7 boards per game, steals with 2.3 per game, and blocks at 2.4 per contest. Chelsea Gray is the court general for the Aces, averaging 7.8 assists per game

Phoenix may be without its leading scorer

The Phoenix Mercury may have to play Game 4 of the WNBA Finals without leading scorer Satou Sabally, whose head slammed into the knee of a Las Vegas defender when falling to the floor attempting to grab a rebound. Sabally finished second in scoring in the loss with 24 points, but leads the Mercury in scoring during the postseason. Kahleah Copper scored 11 straight points after Sabally’s injury to help the Mercury tie the score after trailing by as many as 17.

No one should count out Phoenix quite yet, as the Mercury rallied from a 0-1 deficit to win their best-of-three first-round series with New York and were down 0-1 in their best-of-5 semifinal series before beating top-seeded Minnesota. Sabally averages 18.4 points per game to lead Phoenix in the postseason. However, Alyssa Thomas is the biggest catalyst for Phoenix, averaging 17.2 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 8.7 assists per game during the postseason.

Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces Pick

Spread Pick for Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces

• Las Vegas Aces -2 (4 units)

The Las Vegas Aces will clinch the WNBA title with a victory on the road Friday when visiting the Phoenix Mercury in Game 4. Phoenix may have to play without leading scorer Satou Sabally, and the Mercury will be affected by their late-game loss to the Aces in Game 3, after rallying from 17 points down to only come up short. Las Vegas has covered the spread in each of the last two games of this series and in five of the last six games played against Phoenix, all of which have been played this season. The trio of A’ja Wilson, Jackie Young, and Chelsea Gray has been too much for Phoenix to defend. Jewell Loyd gave Las Vegas some additional scoring in Game 3 and will be another big contributor when called upon off the bench in Game 4 on Friday.

Over/Under Pick for Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces

• Over 164.5 (4 units)

The total has finished over in each of the first three games of this WNBA Finals and in each of Phoenix’s last six games during the postseason. The total has finished over in all of Las Vegas’ last five games during the postseason. Las Vegas leads the WNBA in scoring during the postseason at 87.7 points per game, and Phoenix is fourth at 80.9 points per game. The two teams are tough to stop on offense.