2026 WNBA Team Betting Trends: Spread, Moneyline, and Totals Rankings
2026 WNBA Betting Trends: Team Spread, Moneyline, and Totals Records
The 2026 WNBA season has produced clear market separation, and the team-by-team numbers show where the value has landed. The Minnesota Lynx and Las Vegas Aces have been the two most profitable teams to back, while the Chicago Sky, Phoenix Mercury, and Los Angeles Sparks have drained units across markets. Below are the full 13-team rankings for every major market, sorted by return on investment, to guide your WNBA predictions and wagers.
Records combine the 2026 regular season with the 2025 playoffs, using flat 1-unit stakes at the closing line through July 11, 2026. A positive ROI means blindly backing that side would have shown a profit.
Against the Spread Trends
The Lynx have been the league's best cover team at 13-7, with Golden State close behind after a strong stretch pushed them to 14-9. Los Angeles sits at the bottom and belongs on the fade side of most spreads.
| Rank | Team | Record | Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minnesota Lynx | 13-7 | +4.8u | +24.1% |
| 2 | Golden State Valkyries | 14-9 | +3.7u | +16.2% |
| 3 | Dallas Wings | 12-9 | +1.9u | +9.1% |
| 4 | Seattle Storm | 12-10 | +0.9u | +4.1% |
| 5 | Washington Mystics | 10-9 | +0.1u | +0.5% |
| 6 | Connecticut Sun | 12-11 | -0.1u | -0.4% |
| 7 | Chicago Sky | 10-10 | -0.9u | -4.5% |
| 8 | Portland Fire | 11-11 | -1.0u | -4.5% |
| 9 | Indiana Fever | 10-11 | -1.9u | -9.1% |
| 10 | New York Liberty | 9-10 | -1.8u | -9.6% |
| 11 | Toronto Tempo | 8-9 | -1.7u | -10.2% |
| 12 | Las Vegas Aces | 9-11 | -2.8u | -14.1% |
| 13 | Los Angeles Sparks | 8-11 | -3.7u | -19.6% |
Moneyline Trends (Straight Up)
Moneyline ROI rewards teams the market underrates. Las Vegas and Minnesota are tied at 16-6, and both have been dominant away from home at 10-2. Chicago and Phoenix have been the two biggest straight-up drains in the league.
| Rank | Team | Record | Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Las Vegas Aces | 16-6 | +8.6u | +38.9% |
| 2 | Minnesota Lynx | 16-6 | +8.6u | +38.9% |
| 3 | Golden State Valkyries | 17-7 | +8.4u | +35.2% |
| 4 | Dallas Wings | 15-8 | +5.6u | +24.5% |
| 5 | Atlanta Dream | 13-9 | +2.8u | +12.8% |
| 6 | Indiana Fever | 13-9 | +2.8u | +12.8% |
| 7 | New York Liberty | 13-9 | +2.8u | +12.8% |
| 8 | Washington Mystics | 10-10 | -0.9u | -4.5% |
| 9 | Los Angeles Sparks | 10-11 | -1.9u | -9.1% |
| 10 | Portland Fire | 9-13 | -4.8u | -21.9% |
| 11 | Toronto Tempo | 9-13 | -4.8u | -21.9% |
| 12 | Phoenix Mercury | 8-15 | -7.7u | -33.6% |
| 13 | Chicago Sky | 7-15 | -8.6u | -39.3% |
Total Trends (Over / Under)
We rank the Over and Under separately since they are opposite bets. Chicago and Indiana have been the top Over teams, while Seattle and Dallas anchor the Under side.
Best Over Teams
| Rank | Team | Over Record (O-U) | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chicago Sky | 13-8 | +18.2% |
| 2 | Indiana Fever | 13-9 | +12.8% |
| 3 | Minnesota Lynx | 12-9 | +9.1% |
| 4 | New York Liberty | 12-9 | +9.1% |
| 5 | Portland Fire | 12-10 | +4.1% |
| 6 | Connecticut Sun | 12-11 | -0.4% |
| 7 | Atlanta Dream | 11-11 | -4.5% |
| 8 | Phoenix Mercury | 11-11 | -4.5% |
| 9 | Washington Mystics | 10-10 | -4.5% |
| 10 | Golden State Valkyries | 11-12 | -8.7% |
| 11 | Las Vegas Aces | 10-11 | -9.1% |
| 12 | Dallas Wings | 10-12 | -13.2% |
| 13 | Seattle Storm | 10-14 | -20.5% |
Best Under Teams
| Rank | Team | Under Record (O-U) | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Seattle Storm | 10-14 | +11.4% |
| 2 | Dallas Wings | 10-12 | +4.1% |
| 3 | Las Vegas Aces | 10-11 | +0.0% |
| 4 | Golden State Valkyries | 11-12 | -0.4% |
| 5 | Atlanta Dream | 11-11 | -4.5% |
| 6 | Phoenix Mercury | 11-11 | -4.5% |
| 7 | Washington Mystics | 10-10 | -4.5% |
| 8 | Connecticut Sun | 12-11 | -8.7% |
| 9 | Portland Fire | 12-10 | -13.2% |
| 10 | Minnesota Lynx | 12-9 | -18.2% |
| 11 | New York Liberty | 12-9 | -18.2% |
| 12 | Indiana Fever | 13-9 | -21.9% |
| 13 | Chicago Sky | 13-8 | -27.3% |
How We Use These Trends
Season-long ROI tables are a starting point, not a finished play. A team covering the spread at a strong clip tells you the market has been slow to adjust to how it wins, but the matchup and the closing number still decide each night. With the WNBA's shorter schedule, these rankings carry more noise than a full baseball season, so we treat them as a filter and let the specific game drive the final predictions and wagers.
For more WNBA predictions and daily wagers, visit WNBA Predictions.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which WNBA team has the best against-the-spread trend in 2026?
The Minnesota Lynx lead the league against the spread at 13-7, returning 24.1 percent on flat 1-unit stakes. The Golden State Valkyries are second at 14-9 (plus 16.2 percent), making both the most reliable cover teams so far this season.
Which WNBA teams should bettors fade?
The Los Angeles Sparks have been the worst spread team at 8-11 (minus 19.6 percent), while the Chicago Sky (minus 39.3 percent) and Phoenix Mercury (minus 33.6 percent) have been the biggest moneyline drains. None of the three has been worth backing straight up.
Which teams are the strongest moneyline plays?
The Las Vegas Aces and Minnesota Lynx are tied at 16-6 for a 38.9 percent moneyline return, and both have been especially strong on the road at 10-2 (plus 59.1 percent). The Golden State Valkyries follow at 17-7 (plus 35.2 percent).
Which teams hit the Over most often?
The Chicago Sky top the Over board at 13-8 (plus 18.2 percent), with the Indiana Fever right behind at 13-9 (plus 12.8 percent). Both play at a pace that has cleared the total more than any other team this season.
Which teams are the best Under plays?
The Seattle Storm lead the Under side at 10-14 (plus 11.4 percent), followed by the Dallas Wings at 10-12 (plus 4.1 percent). Their defenses and slower tempo have kept games below the number.
Why are there no quarter or first-half trends here?
This page covers the three full-game markets — spread, total, and moneyline — where a complete season sample exists. Quarter and half splits are tracked separately and will be added once the sample is large enough to be meaningful.
How often are these trends updated?
These tables reflect the 2026 WNBA season plus the 2025 playoffs through July 11 and are refreshed as new results come in. Because the WNBA plays fewer games than other leagues, each result moves the ROI more, so check back before locking in wagers.
How is ROI calculated?
Every wager is treated as a flat 1-unit stake at the closing line. Units is the running profit or loss across a team's games; ROI is that unit total divided by the number of bets, shown as a percentage. A positive ROI means backing that side all season would have shown a profit.
Methodology
Each qualifying game is a flat 1-unit wager settled at the closing line — a cover for the spread, a straight-up win for the moneyline, or an Over or Under for the total. Units is the cumulative profit or loss; ROI is units divided by total bets. The sample combines the 2026 regular season with the 2025 playoffs across all 13 teams. Flat staking keeps every team on equal footing so a few heavy favorites or longshots cannot distort the rankings. WNBA samples are smaller than other leagues, so treat these trends as directional signals rather than settled edges.
21+. Please play responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. Records reflect the 2026 WNBA season and 2025 playoffs through July 11, 2026 and are subject to change.
