Biltmore Championship Asheville Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Thursday September 17 2026

 

The PGA Tour begins its FedExCup Fall schedule Thursday with the inaugural Biltmore Championship Asheville at The Cliffs at Walnut Cove. The 132-player field will compete for a $5 million purse on a Jack Nicklaus design that presents a very different scorecard from the typical Tour stop.

Walnut Cove is hosting the PGA Tour for the first time, so there are no previous Tour leaderboards from this course. What the scorecard does reveal is an unusual par-71 setup with five par 3s, four par 5s and only nine par 4s. Several of the par 3s require long approaches, while the four par 5s provide obvious birdie opportunities.

That combination puts iron play near the center of this tournament. Lucas Glover arrives with inconsistent recent finishes, but his approach numbers have improved sharply enough to make his triple-digit outright price interesting.

Biltmore Championship Asheville Tournament Information

Tournament: Biltmore Championship Asheville Dates: September 17-20, 2026 Course: The Cliffs at Walnut Cove Location: Asheville, North Carolina Par: 71 Yardage: 7,249 yards Field: 132 players Purse: $5 million

Walnut Cove opened in 2005 and sits more than 2,000 feet above sea level. The elevation should take some of the sting out of the listed yardage, but the course still asks players to handle a large number of long approaches.

Four of the five par 3s measure at least 199 yards, including the 246-yard second hole and 225-yard 14th. There are also several long par 4s, while the four par 5s measure between 535 and 568 yards.

That should create a week with plenty of scoring opportunities for players who control their irons well enough to attack the longer holes.

Biltmore Championship Asheville Odds and Line Movement

Jackson Koivun enters Thursday as the favorite after his price shortened during the week. Koivun was around +1500 early in the week before moving to approximately +1200 by Wednesday.

Jacob Bridgeman sits close behind at roughly +1600, followed by Ben James around +2200. Davis Thompson and Doug Ghim are in the +2500 range, while Rasmus Hojgaard, J.T. Poston and Corey Conners are also among the more prominent names near the top of the board.

Glover is much farther down the outright market.

He was listed at +15500 in an early-week price snapshot, while later markets showed him closer to +12500. The exact number varies between books, so shopping for the best outright price matters considerably on a golfer this far down the board.

Lucas Glover Recent Form

Glover's recent results tell two different stories.

The veteran made a serious run during the middle of the summer, finishing tied for third at the John Deere Classic at 18-under and following it with a T5 at the ISCO Championship at 14-under.

His next three starts were much less impressive. Glover finished T57 at the 3M Open before missing the cut at both the Rocket Classic and Wyndham Championship.

The encouraging part is underneath those finishing positions.

Glover has averaged 1.080 Strokes Gained: Approach over his last five starts. His season-long approach number is also positive at 0.226 strokes gained per round.

His overall results have been dragged down by the putter. Glover has averaged minus-0.448 Strokes Gained: Putting across his last five tournaments and sits near the bottom of the Tour in that category for the season.

Even with those putting struggles, he has averaged positive Strokes Gained: Total over his recent five-start stretch.

Why Walnut Cove Could Suit Glover

Glover does not need Walnut Cove to become a driving contest.

His 293-yard average driving distance is well below the longest players in this field, but the elevation should help reduce some of that disadvantage. The more appealing part of the course is the number of shots that should place a premium on distance control with the irons.

The five par 3s are particularly important. Long par 3s can separate players quickly because there is nowhere to hide a poor approach. Walnut Cove also has several substantial par 4s where players will need to hit quality mid- and long-irons into the greens.

That is the part of Glover's game currently moving in the right direction.

His putting remains the obvious concern. A player cannot contend for four days while repeatedly giving shots back on the greens, and Glover's season-long numbers there remain poor.

His summer results also showed what can happen when the iron play is good enough to give him repeated scoring chances. He contended at both the John Deere Classic and ISCO Championship before his form cooled later in the summer.

Can Jackson Koivun Justify Favorite Status?

Koivun brings considerably more recent upside than most of the field and already won the 3M Open this summer. His combination of tee-to-green strength and scoring ability makes him a natural fit for a course where the four par 5s could produce plenty of birdies.

The question around Koivun is primarily the shorter price.

Moving from roughly +1500 to +1200 means bettors arriving Thursday are being asked to pay more than they were earlier in the week. He can absolutely win this tournament, but the current number leaves considerably less room for error.

Conners, Thompson and Ghim also bring strong tee-to-green profiles into Asheville, giving the top of the market several legitimate contenders.

What Will Decide The Biltmore Championship?

The unusual scorecard should create two clear challenges.

Players need to survive the five par 3s, particularly the longer holes, and then take advantage of four relatively manageable par 5s.

That makes approach control especially important. Missing greens from long range can turn pars into bogeys quickly, while precise iron shots on the par 5s should create the birdie chances needed to keep pace.

For Glover, the equation on the course is straightforward. His irons need to remain sharp, and the putter needs to avoid undoing that advantage.

Best Bet - Lucas Glover to Win +12500

Glover carries plenty of risk at 125-1, but his recent iron play gives him a realistic route into contention at Walnut Cove.

He has already shown this summer that when the approaches are dialed in, he can stay near the top of a PGA Tour leaderboard for four rounds. His T3 at the John Deere Classic and T5 at the ISCO Championship came in consecutive starts.

The concern is putting, and there is no reason to pretend otherwise. Glover has lost strokes on the greens consistently this season.

At +12500, however, the price accounts for much of that volatility. Walnut Cove's long par 3s, lengthy approach shots and four scoring-friendly par 5s give Glover's strongest current skill a chance to matter throughout the week.

Biltmore Championship Asheville Prediction

Prediction: Lucas Glover wins the 2026 Biltmore Championship Asheville.

Glover is a longshot in a field led by Koivun, Bridgeman and several stronger all-around statistical profiles. His recent approach surge, two top-five finishes during the summer and a course filled with meaningful iron shots make him the outright selection at +12500 or better.