Washington Capitals vs. Pittsburgh Penguins, Picks and Prediction, Thursday, November 6, 2025

The Washington Capitals face the Pittsburgh Penguins with both teams looking to improve on strong starts to the season. The Capitals are 6-5-1 and in the middle of the Metropolitan Division, while the Penguins are 8-4-2 and have the second-best record in the division. Who will win this matchup? Check out our Capitals vs Penguins prediction!

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This Was Published Before Last Night’s Results

Capitals are led by a great defense

The Capitals have been struggling lately (losing four straight before Wednesday's results) due to a struggling offense and scoring only 2.58 goals per game. Dylan Strome and Tom Wilson have scored nine goals and 15 assists to lead the top two lines, but the rest of the offense has struggled. Only two skaters have four goals or more and opponents can limit the top-heavy offense as a result.

The offense has struggled, but the defense has been incredible, allowing only 2.33 goals per game. Jakob Chychrun and Matt Roy have combined for 2.0 defensive point shares while Martin Fehervary and Rasmus Sandin have combined for 1.3 defensive point shares to add depth to the unit. The hope is that backup goaltender Charlie Lindgren improves as he’s struggled with a .880 save percentage and a 3.46 goals-against average on 117 shots with -1.9 goals saved above average.

Pittsburgh has been great on both ends of the ice

The Penguins are having a great season with their offense stepping up and scoring 3.50 goals per game. Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin have scored 12 goals and 24 assists to lead the top line, but the rest of the offense has struggled. Bryan Rust and Anthony Mantha have combined for 10 goals and 12 assists, while defensemen Ryan Shea and Erik Karlsson have added three goals and 16 assists from the point to open up the offense.

The offense has been great, but the defense has stepped up as well, allowing only 2.71 goals per game. Kris Letang and Erik Karlsson have combined for 2.3 defensive point shares, while Parker Wotherspoon and Ryan Shea have combined for 2.1 defensive point shares to add depth to the unit. In addition, goaltender Arturs Silov has stepped up with a .913 save percentage and a 2.66 goals-against average on 219 shots with 3.7 goals saved above average.

Capitals vs Penguins Pick

Money Line Pick For Capitals vs Penguins

• Penguins (-105) (4 units)

The Penguins are having a great season and look to rebound from two rough losses and take over this game from the first period. The Penguins, who average 3.50 goals per game, should create plenty of scoring chances with Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and the rest of the forward unit carrying the puck into the offensive zone while creating open shots with quick passes. The Penguins should limit the Capitals' offense with Erik Karlsson, Kris Letang, and the rest of the defensive unit creating turnovers in the defensive zone while limiting shots on the net, allowing goaltender Arturs Silovs to make plenty of big saves. They also have more rest as the Caps played the night before. The Penguins should win the game with a strong performance on their home ice.

Take the Penguins' money line as home Favorites

Over/Under Pick For Capitals vs Penguins

• Under 6.5 (5 Units)

Both teams have great defenses that look to make this game a low-scoring one from the opening puck drop. The Capitals, who allow only 2.33 goals per game, should limit the Penguins' offense with Jakob Chychrun, Matt Roy, and the rest of the defensive unit creating turnovers in the defensive zone while limiting shots on the net, allowing goaltender Charlie Lindgren to make plenty of big saves. The Penguins, who allow only 2.71 goals per game, should eliminate a Capitals lineup that averages only 2.58 goals per game, with Erik Karlsson, Kris Letang, Ryan Shea, and the rest of the defensive unit forcing turnovers in the neutral zone and defensive zone while goaltender Arturs Silovs blanks the shots on the net. The Under should cover in a low-scoring game with both defenses stepping up.

Take the Under on 6.5 goals.