Pittsburgh Penguins vs Colorado Avalanche Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Friday October 16 2026

Pittsburgh faces one of its toughest early-season road assignments Friday night when it visits Colorado at Ball Arena. The Penguins are 3-3-1 following a 5-3 loss to Chicago, while the Avalanche are 4-2-1 after taking three of four possible points in consecutive games against Dallas. Colorado is the deserving favorite, but the moneyline price leaves a separate question: whether the Penguins have enough offense to make a road upset worth backing.

The teams meet at 9 p.m. ET. BetMGM posted Colorado at -210 and Pittsburgh at +170 on Friday morning, with a 6.5-goal total. Another afternoon market snapshot placed Pittsburgh closer to +179 and Colorado at -201. Those snapshots are from different sources, so the difference should not be mistaken for verified movement at one sportsbook. Colorado's moneyline is too expensive for a straight favorite wager here; Pittsburgh's plus-money return is the more interesting side.

The Penguins' early results have been uneven, but their attack is not short on recognizable creators. Sidney Crosby centers Rickard Rakell and Bryan Rust, while Evgeni Malkin is projected alongside Tommy Novak and Egor Chinakhov. The combination gives Pittsburgh two scoring lines capable of punishing rushed defensive decisions, even if Crosby's line has not consistently controlled games to start the season.

Crosby scored his first two goals of the season in Tuesday's defeat at Chicago. Nick Robertson has provided four goals through seven games, and Erik Karlsson leads Pittsburgh with seven assists. Samuel Girard, now on Pittsburgh's blue line, has added offense alongside Karlsson and Kris Letang. That matters against Colorado because Pittsburgh cannot spend the entire night defending MacKinnon's line and expect a favorable result.

There is also legitimate matchup history behind the upset case. Rust carries a nine-game point streak against Colorado, with 11 points during that stretch, and Malkin has produced 27 points in 25 career games against the Avalanche. Pittsburgh has earned points on four of its last six visits to Ball Arena. Historical results are not a substitute for current form, but they support the idea that this opponent and venue do not automatically neutralize Pittsburgh's veteran forwards.

Coach Dan Muse has confirmed Arturs Silovs as the starter. The projected defense includes Karlsson with Declan Carlile, Girard with Kaedan Korczak, and Letang with Spencer Stastney. Ryan Graves, Justin Brazeau and Trevor van Riemsdyk are injured. The concern is how those defensive combinations will handle Colorado's pace through the neutral zone, particularly if Pittsburgh turns the puck over while its defensemen are joining the attack.

Colorado has scored 31 goals in seven games, an average of 4.43 per outing, and its offense can create a scoring chance without waiting for extended possession. Nathan MacKinnon has five goals and seven assists through seven appearances, while Martin Necas and Artturi Lehkonen give his projected line two dangerous finishing options. Gabriel Landeskog, Brock Nelson and Nazem Kadri form another veteran unit that can impose itself in the offensive zone.

Cale Makar is back in the projected lineup after missing Tuesday's game against Dallas for family reasons. That is a significant change from earlier lineup reports: Makar and Devon Toews restore Colorado's preferred top defensive pairing, adding another layer of clean breakouts and offensive pressure. Colorado expects to dress 11 forwards and seven defensemen, a deployment choice that lets its blue-line depth play a larger role.

Colorado's latest game, however, was a reminder that its offense is not unstoppable. Dallas held the Avalanche to two goals in a 3-2 shootout loss Wednesday, although Colorado had two potential goals disallowed. The Avalanche also surrendered a shorthanded breakaway goal, the kind of special-teams mistake that can turn a favorite's strong territorial performance into a narrow game. Mackenzie Blackwood is listed as the confirmed starter, and his early .879 save percentage gives Pittsburgh reason to attack rather than simply protect a tie.

Colorado opened as a heavy favorite in market summaries and remains priced well above -150, with Friday's named BetMGM quote at -210. Pittsburgh was +170 at that book, while the supplied afternoon snapshot showed +179. The total is 6.5 at both sources. There is no reliable evidence here of a sustained one-book swing, so the meaningful conclusion is that Pittsburgh is available at a substantial underdog return while Colorado still commands a premium.

Colorado has the stronger underlying offensive profile and should generate more high-quality chances. Pittsburgh's route is narrower: produce off the rush, get traffic in front of Blackwood, and prevent MacKinnon from repeatedly attacking a set defense at speed. The Penguins also must avoid giving Colorado's power play needless opportunities. Still, an upset does not require Pittsburgh to dominate; a productive Crosby or Malkin line and a timely Silovs save can make the margin razor-thin.

Best Bet: Pittsburgh Penguins moneyline at +170 or better. The Avalanche deserve favoritism, but Pittsburgh's offensive talent, recent success in this building and the available price justify taking a measured shot at the underdog. The risk is substantial against Colorado's depth, so the price is essential. Do not chase a materially shorter return.