Dallas Stars vs Colorado Avalanche Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Wednesday October 14 2026

Colorado and Dallas meet for the second time in two nights Wednesday, this time at Ball Arena after the Avalanche won 3-2 in Texas on Tuesday. Colorado is 4-2-0, while Dallas is 2-3-1. The rematch already carries extra intensity after Tuesday's physical confrontations and a late Dallas push.

Colorado is favored again, but the number is far more manageable than a typical heavy-price Avalanche spot. Wednesday sportsbook comparisons show the Avalanche around -135 at DraftKings, -140 at Fanatics and BetMGM, and as high as -146 at FanDuel. Dallas is generally between +114 and +125. The total varies meaningfully by book, with posted numbers from 5.5 to 6.5. That disagreement is one reason the straight moneyline offers a clearer handicap than forcing a wager on goals.

Dallas played much of Tuesday's game from behind, but it created opportunities to tie the score late. Tyler Seguin had a goal and an assist, Roope Hintz scored in the third period and Miro Heiskanen supplied two assists. The Stars ultimately lost 3-2 after pulling their goalie in search of an equalizer. The result was frustrating, but the final period offered a credible blueprint for making the rematch competitive: get pucks behind Colorado's defense and make its reshuffled pairs defend longer possessions.

The Stars have been much better at suppressing goals than scoring them. They have allowed only 10 goals across six games, but their 13 goals scored amount to barely more than two per contest. That imbalance creates pressure on every scoring chance, particularly when facing a team with Nathan MacKinnon at the top of its lineup. Dallas cannot assume another two-goal offensive output will be enough.

Wyatt Johnston remains out with an illness, and Matt Duchene is sidelined after core surgery. Those losses remove important offensive options and leave the Stars more dependent on Robertson, Hintz, Mikko Rantanen and the veteran support behind them. Seguin's production Tuesday helps, but Dallas still needs more from the middle six to avoid becoming too predictable on controlled entries.

Casey DeSmith has been named Dallas' starter for Wednesday after Jake Oettinger took the first game. DeSmith has opened the season well, with a save percentage above .920 in limited action. Even so, he faces a Colorado team that can produce dangerous chances without dominating the shot count.

Martin Necas decided Tuesday's game with two goals, including one during a five-on-three power play. Artturi Lehkonen scored Colorado's other goal, while MacKinnon added two assists. MacKinnon also fought and suffered a facial cut, but returned to play. The victory was notable because Colorado did it without Cale Makar, who remains away for personal reasons following the birth of twins.

Missing Makar changes how the Avalanche move the puck from the back end, but it does not erase the team's attacking identity. Devon Toews and Sam Malinski are projected together, with Josh Manson, Brent Burns and Brett Kulak among the defensemen absorbing minutes. Colorado still has MacKinnon between Lehkonen and Necas, plus another line built around Gabriel Landeskog, Brock Nelson and Nazem Kadri. Dallas must survive threats across multiple shifts, not just one marquee matchup.

The Avalanche have scored 29 goals through six games. That early pace is unlikely to continue indefinitely, yet the roster explains why the offense can still be formidable even when a star defenseman is absent. MacKinnon's entries force defenders to retreat, while Necas and Lehkonen are good at arriving in dangerous spaces before coverage resets. Tuesday illustrated another dimension: Colorado could win 3-2 after opening the year with several much higher-scoring games.

Scott Wedgewood is expected to take the net for Colorado after Mackenzie Blackwood made 24 saves in Dallas. Wedgewood's earlier success with the Avalanche makes him a credible choice, though he has only one appearance this season. Both teams are on the same back-to-back, so neither has an overall rest advantage; the difference is that Colorado now gets the last change at home after winning the road leg.

The crucial adjustment concerns discipline. Dallas handed Colorado a five-on-three opportunity Tuesday and Necas converted it. The Stars cannot afford a repeat while trying to keep the game low scoring. Conversely, Colorado must avoid treating the first victory as evidence that Dallas cannot answer back. Hintz, Rantanen and Robertson can make one breakdown count, especially if Makar's absence forces extra pressure onto Colorado's remaining puck movers.

Colorado has appeared around -130 in some Wednesday market snapshots and near -135 to -146 at major sportsbooks. Other odds trackers have quoted different opening numbers, so an exact market-wide opening-to-current move is not reliable. What matters for this wager is the available price now. A move from -135 to -145 materially cuts the reward for backing a favorite whose opponent has allowed very few goals, even though Colorado remains the side with the stronger attacking ceiling.

Best Bet: Colorado Avalanche moneyline at -135 or better. The combination of MacKinnon's line, Colorado's home-ice matchups and the confidence of Tuesday's win supports a narrow Avalanche edge. Dallas has enough defensive quality to make this difficult, and Makar's absence rules out treating Colorado as a sure thing. The preferred play is simply to back the home favorite at a disciplined price rather than ask it to win by multiple goals.