Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos Picks and Predictions for Sunday, November 1, 2026

The AFC West lead is on the line Sunday when Kansas City visits Denver. The Chiefs sit first at 5-1 despite losing 20-3 to Seattle last weekend. Denver is right behind at 5-2 after beating Arizona 30-16 for its third straight victory. The Broncos have also won all three home games, setting up an interesting meeting at Empower Field at Mile High. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25 pm ET on CBS. Kansas City is favored by 1.5 points, with the total at 40.5. Browse our free NFL picks for more Sunday matchups.

Kansas City Chiefs Looking to Put Seattle Loss Behind Them

Kansas City had enjoyed four consecutive victories before Sunday's trip to Seattle. The Chiefs had beaten the Chargers 22-6, edged Las Vegas 30-27 and won 24-10 at Miami. Then Seattle held them to just three points in a 20-3 defeat. It was Kansas City's first loss of the season and easily its poorest offensive performance. The Chiefs have a chance to recover quickly, but Denver's defense should make things difficult, especially in a stadium where the Broncos haven't lost this season.

Kenneth Walker III has given Kansas City a strong running game, rushing for 701 yards and six touchdowns. Patrick Mahomes has thrown nine touchdown passes against four interceptions, with Travis Kelce collecting 343 receiving yards. Kelce's availability is worth watching because he's questionable for Sunday. The Chiefs average 23.8 points, although they've scored 22 or fewer in their last two games. Kansas City will want Walker involved early to prevent Denver's pass rush from concentrating entirely on Mahomes.

Injuries: Mansoor Delane, Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce and Jaylon Moore are questionable. Omarr Norman-Lott is on the physically unable to perform list.

Denver Broncos Finding Ways to Win Close Games

Denver was in control for much of Sunday's trip to Arizona, leaving with a 30-16 victory and a third straight win. The previous two games were much tighter. Seattle pushed the Broncos into overtime before losing 17-14, and the Chargers came within six points in a 23-17 defeat. Denver also beat the Rams 30-26 earlier this season. The Broncos have kept finding ways to win despite some difficult moments on offense. They now sit at 5-2, just behind Kansas City in the AFC West.

Bo Nix has completed 129 passes for 1,271 yards, throwing seven touchdowns and three interceptions. Jaylen Waddle has caught 26 passes for 276 yards, while J.K. Dobbins has gained 293 yards on the ground. Denver's defense has been doing plenty of work, particularly against the pass. Zach Allen has 4.5 sacks, and linebacker Alex Singleton has made 87 tackles. The Broncos will need another strong defensive performance Sunday, with Patrick Mahomes bringing a much different challenge than Arizona offered.

Injuries: Talanoa Hufanga, Zach Allen, Jaylen Waddle, RJ Harvey and Brandon Jones are questionable.

Key To The Game

Denver has been particularly difficult to beat at home, but Kansas City brings a dangerous running back in Kenneth Walker III. He's gaining 5.8 yards per carry, which could help the Chiefs avoid obvious passing downs. Denver's pass rush has produced 21 sacks, so Mahomes won't want to hold the ball for long. At the other end, Bo Nix faces a Kansas City defense that has allowed only 103 points. The Broncos need to keep possession and give their defense enough time to recover between drives.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos Game Pick

• Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 (-105)

Seattle exposed Kansas City's offense last weekend, but the Chiefs still have the stronger passing attack and a reliable running back in Walker. Mahomes has been productive throughout most of the season, while Denver has struggled to score consistently. The Broncos deserve respect for their home record and three consecutive victories. However, Kansas City has won five of six games and has allowed just 103 points overall. I expect a close battle, with Mahomes finding enough opportunities to make the difference. I'm taking the Chiefs -1.5.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos Over/Under Pick

• Under 40.5 (-108)

Both teams have relied heavily on defense recently. Kansas City held the Chargers to six points before struggling offensively against Seattle, while Denver allowed just 16 against Arizona and 14 against Seattle. The Broncos have scored 20.6 points per game, and Kansas City's offense is coming off a three-point performance. Walker could help the Chiefs control possession, but Denver's pass rush should make long drives difficult. With first place in the division at stake, another close contest seems likely. Under 40.5 is my pick.