Miami Heat vs Golden State Warriors Picks and Predictions for Thursday, November 5, 2026

Golden State has won five straight games. Miami has managed just two victories in its first seven. The Heat (2-5, 4th Southeast Division) arrive in San Francisco after losing 138-117 to the Lakers on Monday, then playing the LA Clippers on Wednesday night. Thursday marks the second game of a back-to-back for Miami. The Warriors (5-3, 2nd Pacific Division) have climbed above .500 with their winning streak. Our free NBA picks help make you a winner.

Miami Heat Searching for Defensive Answers

Miami couldn't stop the Lakers on Monday. Los Angeles scored 138 points in a 21-point win, wiping out some of the excitement from Miami's previous two results. The Heat had hammered Indiana 145-125 and beaten Atlanta 129-117 before that defeat. Miami also lost 113-109 to Dallas and 115-110 to Charlotte. The Heat average 118.1 points scored and 123.9 allowed per game. Opponents have found far too many easy baskets, particularly when Miami struggles to get stops inside.

Giannis Antetokounmpo has 28.4 points and 12.3 rebounds per game, shooting 58.6% from the field. Bam Adebayo averages 16.3 points, eight rebounds and 2.3 steals. Davion Mitchell has 16.0 points and eight assists, while Klay Thompson contributes 11.9 points and shoots 41.1% from three. Miami's team numbers: 47.8% shooting, 42.3 rebounds and 28.7 assists per contest. Those aren't bad offensive figures. But giving up 123.9 points each night puts enormous pressure on the Heat to score almost every trip down the floor.

Injuries: Giannis Antetokounmpo (wrist) and Myron Gardner (quadriceps) are game-time decisions.

Golden State Warriors Riding Five Straight Wins

Golden State has put together five consecutive victories, moving to 5-3 and second place in the Pacific. The Warriors score 117.5 points per night while hitting 38.9% from three. That's a dangerous combination against a Miami defense allowing 123.9 points per game. Golden State averages 43.9 rebounds and 26.8 assists, too. But the Warriors also commit 15.9 turnovers per game, an opening Miami will want to attack.

Stephen Curry is scoring 30.0 points per game. The point guard averages 4.5 made threes per appearance, on 42.9% shooting from deep. Yaxel Lendeborg has 21.5 points and seven rebounds; Brandin Podziemski contributes 17.0 points and five assists. Draymond Green scores just 3.2 points, but his 6.3 assists help keep possessions moving. Golden State shoots 45.5% overall, with 16.1 made threes per game. 

Injuries: Gui Santos, Kristaps Porzingis, Moses Moody, and Jimmy Butler are out

Key To The Game

Miami needs to stop Curry beyond the arc. Golden State makes 16.1 threes per game, while Curry accounts for 4.5. The Heat have allowed 123.9 points a night and can't trade baskets forever. Antetokounmpo's work inside could answer some of that damage, provided he's available. Watch the turnovers: Golden State averages 15.9, and Miami records 8.1 steals.

Miami Heat vs Golden State Warriors Game Pick

• Golden State Warriors

Five straight wins and a 5-3 record give Golden State the stronger recent results. Curry scores 30.0 per game, Lendeborg adds 21.5, and the Warriors knock down 16.1 threes nightly. Miami's offense can keep pace for stretches; Antetokounmpo averages 28.4 and Adebayo provides another 16.3. But the Heat have surrendered 123.9 points per game, including 138 to the Lakers. That's a difficult defensive backdrop against Golden State's shooters. I'll take the Warriors at home.

Miami Heat vs Golden State Warriors Over/Under Pick

• Over

Miami scores 118.1 points per game and allows 123.9. Those are big numbers on both sides of the ball. The Heat recently scored 145 against Indiana and 129 against Atlanta, then surrendered 138 to the Lakers. Golden State averages 117.5 points and shoots 38.9% from three, with Curry hitting 4.5 triples per game. Both teams have reliable offensive options, and Miami's recent defensive record leaves plenty of room for scoring. On the scoring matchup alone, over is play.