Heat vs. 76ers Picks and Prediction for Thursday, February 26, 2026
Use Code WWWC On Thursday, the Miami Heat will play the Philadelphia 76ers at Xfinity Mobile Arena, and we have you ready to go with our Heat vs. 76ers prediction, odds, and preview. Tip-off from Philly is at 7:00 p.m. ET.
The Sixers are 1.5-point spread favorites, and the game total is 238.5 points scored.
Miami defeated Philadelphia 127-117 in their lone previous meeting this season on November 23. The Heat shot 49 percent and outrebounded the 76ers 58-47, collecting 18 offensive rebounds. Miami has won seven of its last ten games against Philly and covered the spread eight times. The under was 5-4-1. If you want the Heat vs. 76ers prediction, read on to get our top NBA predictions and increase your bankroll!
Heat have had the 76ers' number recently
Miami (31-28 SU, 34-24-1 ATS, and 31-28 O/U) lost 128-117 to Milwaukee in its last game (Tuesday). The Heat, who are 5-5 in their last ten games, shot 43 percent, including 16-for-48 from beyond the arc. They led for nearly half the game, but the Bucks dominated the fourth quarter 39-24 to secure the home victory.
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Miami ranks 10th in NET rating, including 15th in offensive efficiency rating and 4th in defensive efficiency rating, per Dunks and Threes. G Norman Powell leads the team in scoring this season, averaging 22.9 points with 3.6 rebounds per game. A few other players to watch against the 76ers are G Tyler Herro (20.9 PPG and 3.2 APG), C Bam Adebayo (18.3 PPG and 9.8 RPG), and F Jaime Jaquez Jr. (15.0 PPG, 5.4 RPG, and 4.6 APG).
The Heat went 37-45 last season, finishing tenth in the Eastern Conference. It was the team's first sub-.500 performance since 2018-19, but that didn't stop Miami from making the playoffs, as they won eight of their last 12 games to secure a spot in the Play-In Tournament. They took a step further, too, becoming the first ten-seed to advance with consecutive road wins over Chicago and Atlanta. Will they find a way to make a deeper run this season? Miami doesn't have an elite roster, but with Herro, Powell, and Adebayo, they have veteran experience, while Kel'el Ware, Jaquez Jr., and Davion Mitchell bring youthful upside.
Miami Heat Injury Report:
- PF Nikola Jovic (back) is day-to-day.
Philadelphia is 5-5 SU and ATS in its last ten games
Philadelphia (32-26 SU, 31-25-2 ATS, and 30-28 O/U) beat Indiana 135-114 on the road on Tuesday. The 76ers have won consecutive games, but dropped their previous four. They shot a blistering 58 percent in the win, despite hitting only 8 of their 29 three-point attempts, as they dominated around the rim with 82 points in the paint. The Sixers also won the rebounding and turnover battles.
G Tyrese Maxey leads Philadelphia in scoring at 29.1 points with 6.7 assists per game. A few other Sixers to watch against the Heat are C Joel Embiid (26.6 PPG and 7.4 RPG), G VJ Edgecombe (15.3 PPG, 5.5 RPG, and 4.0 APG), and G Quentin Grimes (12.8 PPG and 3.6 APG).
The 76ers rank 16th in NET rating, including 13th in offensive efficiency rating and 16th in defensive efficiency rating, per Dunks and Threes. Philadelphia averages 116.6 points per game (11th) and shoots 46.0 percent from the field (23rd), including 35.6 percent from three (16th). Its opponents score 115.9 points per game (17th) on 47.0 percent shooting (16th), including 35.5 percent from long range (15th).
Philadelphia 76ers Injury Report:
- No key injuries to report.
Heat vs. 76ers Pick and Preview
Moneyline Pick for Heat vs. 76ers
- Miami ML (5 Units)
The Heat have dominated this series, winning five straight and seven of the last ten. I like them on the road as small underdogs against a 76ers squad that's been too inconsistent recently, losing straight-up by double digits as favorites against New Orleans and Atlanta. They were also blown out by New York recently. Miami was tripped up by Milwaukee on Tuesday, but won its previous three, easily beating the Grizzlies, Hawks, and Pelicans.
The Heat take good care of the basketball (5th in TO%), which is important on the road, and they rank sixth in defensive rebounding and third in opponent free-throw rate. That should ensure extra possessions for Miami and fewer easy points for Philly, which will be x-factors in what should be a competitive game. The Sixers also struggle to box out (26th in opponent offensive rebounding percentage) and foul a lot (20th in opponent FT attempt rate).
Miami should come out on top on Thursday in Philadelphia. Bet the Heat ML.
Over/Under Pick for Heat vs. 76ers
- Over 238.5 (4 Units)
I like the over in this matchup. Miami plays at the fastest pace in the NBA, and Philadelphia averages the fifth-shortest defensive possession length in the league, so it's unlikely this will be an average-paced game. I expect the Heat to make the most of their possessions by taking care of the ball and maximizing their offensive rebounding opportunities against the Sixers, leading to a higher-scoring game. These squads combined for 244 points in their previous matchup this season, as both teams attempted 98 field goals. Miami also attacked the basket, attempting 30 free throws. With both teams mostly healthy, I predict another high-scoring affair.
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