Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Thursday July 9 2026
Use Code WWWC The Philadelphia Phillies and Cincinnati Reds continue their National League series Wednesday night at Great American Ball Park after Philadelphia took the opener 4-1. The original pitching setup needed a major correction, because Cincinnati is not going with an unannounced starter. Chase Burns is listed for the Reds, while Philadelphia’s starter remains TBD.
For more MLB betting angles, props, and matchup breakdowns, check out our MLB player props page.
Best Available Odds for Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds
- Best Moneyline Odds: Philadelphia Phillies (+125), Cincinnati Reds (-140)
- Best Run Line Odds: Philadelphia Phillies +1.0 (-131), Cincinnati Reds -1.5 (+150)
- Best Total Odds: Over 9.5 (+110), Under 9.0 (-105)
Game Info
- This game is scheduled for Wednesday, July 8, 2026, at 7:10 p.m. ET from Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio.
- The game is listed for ESPN and the ESPN App.
Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds Preview
Philadelphia enters this matchup with the stronger recent position after taking the series opener 4-1. Zack Wheeler struck out 14 Reds hitters in that win, Kyle Schwarber added his MLB-leading 31st home run, and the Phillies’ pitching staff held Cincinnati to one run while piling up 18 strikeouts as a team.
The Reds are in a difficult stretch. Cincinnati has lost seven of its last nine games and has struggled to build sustained offense, even at Great American Ball Park. That does not make the Reds an automatic fade here, because Chase Burns gives them a legitimate frontline arm, but the team context is not as clean as the moneyline price suggests.
Get Free $30 Credit for Premium Picks + Exclusive Discounts
Subscribe Now
Philadelphia’s starter being listed as TBD adds volatility to the handicap. That uncertainty gives Cincinnati a path to justify the favorite price, but the Phillies have the better lineup form, the better overall season profile, and the confidence boost from winning the opener. This is a matchup where the pitching edge belongs to the Reds, but the value side still leans toward Philadelphia.
Pitching Matchup
Philadelphia’s starter is still listed as TBD, so this matchup may require a bullpen-heavy plan or a late-announced starter. That creates risk for any Phillies side, but it also makes the +125 moneyline and +1.0 run line more interesting because the market is already pricing in that uncertainty.
Chase Burns starts for Cincinnati. Burns enters at 10-1 with a 2.40 ERA and 116 strikeouts, giving the Reds a clear starting-pitching advantage. He has the strikeout profile to quiet Philadelphia’s lineup, but the Phillies’ offense has enough power and patience to punish mistakes if Burns has to work from behind in counts.
Game Thesis: Cincinnati has the starting-pitching edge with Burns, but Philadelphia has the better recent form and the deeper offensive profile. The Reds can win if Burns controls the first six innings, but the Phillies are still live as an underdog because their lineup and bullpen give them more ways to stay attached late.
Best Bet - Philadelphia Phillies +1.0 (-131)
The Phillies +1.0 is the best bet on the board. Burns gives Cincinnati the better starter, but Philadelphia is not priced like a team that just won the opener and has one of the more dangerous lineups in the National League. Getting a full run with the Phillies is the cleanest way to respect Burns while still backing the better overall team context.
This number also protects against the most obvious Cincinnati win script. If Burns is sharp and the Reds win a low-scoring game by one, the Phillies +1.0 still gives bettors a push. That matters in a matchup where Philadelphia’s starter is uncertain but the lineup should keep the game competitive.
Moneyline Pick - Philadelphia Phillies (+125)
The Phillies are worth a moneyline look at +125. This is not a comfortable fade of Burns, because he has been excellent, but the price creates value on Philadelphia. The Phillies have the better lineup depth, just handled Cincinnati in the opener, and have enough late-inning power to flip the game if they get into the Reds bullpen.
Cincinnati being favored at home is understandable. Burns is the biggest reason. But the Reds’ recent slide and Philadelphia’s offensive ceiling make the Phillies the sharper underdog side.
Total Pick - Under 9.0 (-105)
The Under 9.0 is the preferred total. Great American Ball Park always creates home-run risk, but Burns’ strikeout profile gives Cincinnati a strong chance to suppress Philadelphia early. The Phillies’ pitching plan is less certain, but Cincinnati’s offense has been inconsistent enough that a full overreaction to the hitter-friendly park is risky.
The Under fits best if Burns works deep and the Phillies use their bullpen aggressively behind the TBD starter. Philadelphia’s opener showed the path clearly: keep Cincinnati’s lineup from stringing together rallies, make the Reds chase, and force them to win with isolated power rather than sustained pressure.
Top Player Prop Picks
Trea Turner Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-137): Turner is the best Phillies production prop because his role gives him multiple ways to clear the number. He can beat this with a multi-hit game, a run scored ahead of the middle order, or one extra-base swing in a favorable hitting park. Even with Burns on the mound, Turner’s contact, speed, and lineup spot keep him live.
Bryson Stott Over 0.5 Hits (-175): Stott is a strong hit prop because he does not need to drive the ball in the air to cash. His contact profile fits a matchup where Philadelphia may need to shorten swings against Burns and create traffic rather than wait for home runs. The price is not cheap, but the role and recent form support the play.
Gabriel Rincones Jr. Over 0.5 Hits (-125): Rincones is the value option among the Phillies props. He has been productive since entering the lineup, and the lower price makes him easier to back than the more expensive hit-only options. This is a tougher matchup against Burns, but one clean swing at Great American Ball Park is enough to cash a simple hit prop.
Never Tried Winners and Whiners? Now Is Your Chance
- Get your first daily picks package for ONLY $1 using coupon code DOLLAR
- If the pick loses, we credit your account with 3 Flex Picks
- If the pick wins, we still give you 1 Flex Pick on the house
- Win or lose, you walk away ahead. One dollar. No catch.
- Check out more MLB predictions
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win
New Users – Bet $5 Get $200 in Bet Reset Tokens for 5 Days
