New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Monday June 15 2026
Use Code WWWC The New York Mets travel to Great American Ball Park on Monday night to open a three-game series against the Cincinnati Reds. This preview breaks down the latest odds, the pitching setup, and the top MLB player props for the June 15 matchup.
Best Available Odds
Best Moneyline Odds: New York Mets (+125) / Cincinnati Reds (-125)
Best Spread Odds: New York Mets +1.5 (-163) / Cincinnati Reds -1.5 (+163)
Best Total Odds: Over 8.5 (+108) / Under 8.5 (-106)
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Game Info
Date: June 15, 2026
Time: 7:10 PM EDT
Location: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, OH
TV: SNY, Reds.TV, Gray Media, WXIX FOX19
New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds Preview
The New York Mets enter at 32-39 after taking two of three from Atlanta. New York closed that series with an 8-1 victory Sunday, getting three hits and a home run from A.J. Ewing, two hits from Juan Soto, and five solid innings from Freddy Peralta. The Mets finished their homestand 3-3 and have shown more offensive life recently, although their season-long inconsistency remains a concern.
The Cincinnati Reds enter at 33-37 after losing two of three to Arizona. Cincinnati fell 5-3 in Sunday's finale and has struggled through June, but the Reds have their best starting pitcher available for the opener. That creates a difficult matchup for a Mets offense that has often depended on getting four or more runs to win.
Starting Pitchers and Pitching Matchup
The Mets will start right-hander Tobias Myers, who enters at 0-1 with a 4.05 ERA and 26 strikeouts across 33.1 innings. Myers has shown strong control, issuing only seven walks, but this is not expected to be a normal starter workload. New York plans to monitor him around 40 pitches after he made only three brief Triple-A appearances following his May demotion. The Mets will likely need a bulk reliever to cover several innings after Myers exits.
The Reds counter with Chase Burns, who enters at 7-1 with a 2.14 ERA, a WHIP below 1.00, and 88 strikeouts. Burns has been one of Cincinnati's most reliable pitchers, combining elite strikeout ability with improved command. His presence gives the Reds the clear starting pitching advantage, especially with New York preparing for a planned bullpen game.
Game Thesis: Cincinnati has the cleaner pitching path because Burns can work deep into the game, while New York expects to turn to its bullpen early. The Mets have enough offensive talent to keep the game competitive, but the original article understated the uncertainty created by Myers' pitch limit. The Reds are the preferred side, while the Under remains viable if Burns controls New York and the Mets' bulk relievers keep Cincinnati from building a large inning.
Moneyline Pick: Cincinnati Reds (-125)
The Reds are the preferred moneyline side because Burns gives them a substantial advantage in both quality and expected workload. Myers may pitch effectively for a few innings, but New York will likely need several relievers to complete the game. At a relatively modest favorite price, Cincinnati offers the better combination of starting pitching and home-field value.
Spread Pick: New York Mets +1.5 (-163)
The Mets +1.5 can still work as a secondary play because Burns' presence points toward a lower-scoring game where one run carries more value. New York's bullpen has generally been one of the stronger parts of the roster, and the Mets have enough power through Soto, Bo Bichette, and their young outfielders to remain within one run even if Cincinnati wins.
⭐ Best Bet - Total Pick: Under 8.5 (-106)
The Under 8.5 is the strongest play because Burns has been difficult to score against, while Myers' planned short outing does not automatically make this a high-scoring game. New York can follow him with a prepared bulk-relief plan rather than scrambling after an early exit. If Burns limits the Mets and Cincinnati produces only moderate damage against the Mets bullpen, a 4-3 or 5-2 final fits the matchup.
Top Player Prop Picks
Chase Burns Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-142) Burns has consistently limited damage and enters with a 2.14 ERA across 13 starts. His strikeout ability gives him a strong path to escape traffic, and the Mets have remained highly inconsistent despite their productive Sunday performance.
Tobias Myers Under 2.5 Pitcher Strikeouts (-218) The strongest case for this Under is Myers' expected workload, not simply a lack of strikeout ability. With New York planning to keep him around 40 pitches, he may only face the Cincinnati lineup once or work into the third inning. That limited opportunity makes three strikeouts difficult at the listed price.
Juan Soto Over 0.5 Hits (-180) Soto recorded two hits and drew two walks Sunday and remains New York's most dependable on-base threat. Burns is a difficult matchup, but Soto's plate discipline and ability to handle premium velocity give him a reasonable path to record at least one hit.
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