New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondbacks Picks and Prediction for Sunday May 10 2026
Use Code WWWC Sunday afternoon MLB action, and we have a New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondbacks prediction ready to rock and roll. This is game three of a three-game series from Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona. The Mets took game one by a score of 3-1 while Arizona bounced back with a 2-1 win in game two. New York has gone just 15-24 on the year, but they have played well on this long trip so far, winning five of the first 8 games. Arizona is 18-20 on the year, including 2-7 in their last 9. New York has had a Read on to see my Mets vs Diamondbacks prediction.
Pitching Probables: The Mets are undecided about their starter for this game. Arizona will trot out Eduardo Rodriguez, who has gone 3-0 with a 2.50 ERA on the year so far.
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Mets Have Played Well On This Trip
New York heads into the finale trying to build on what’s been a solid road trip despite their overall 15–24 record. They opened this series with a 3–1 win behind sharp pitching and just enough timely offense, but Arizona answered with a 2–1 victory in game two, holding the Mets to four hits. Even with the loss, New York has won five of the first eight games on this long swing, and that’s been driven mostly by their pitching. The Mets still struggle to score at just 3.54 runs per game with a .224 average and a .633 OPS, and the lack of power — only 31 homers — continues to limit their margin for error. What’s kept them competitive is a 3.88 team ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and one of the better strikeout rates in the league.
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With no starter officially named yet, the Mets’ approach will likely hinge on piecing together innings and leaning on a bullpen that’s been steadier than expected. The keys are straightforward: avoid falling behind early, manufacture offense any way possible, and let their pitching keep them in a low‑scoring game. Arizona doesn’t overwhelm teams offensively, so if New York can play clean defense, limit free passes, and scratch out a few runs, they’ll have a real chance to take the series.
The Arizona Offense Is Struggling
Arizona heads into the finale trying to generate any kind of offensive momentum after another low‑output night in their 2–1 win over the Mets. That victory snapped a rough stretch, but the bigger picture is still concerning: the Diamondbacks are 18–20 overall and just 2–7 in their last nine, scoring a total of five runs across their last four games and only 2.67 runs per game over that nine‑game period. The season‑long numbers look better — 4.32 runs per game, a .238 average, and a .695 OPS — but none of that has shown up lately. The pitching has been serviceable with a 4.59 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP, and the strikeout rate is solid, but the lack of run support has put constant pressure on the staff.
Eduardo Rodriguez gets the ball, and he’s been the one arm Arizona can trust right now. He’s 3–0 with a 2.50 ERA on the season, and he’s been even sharper at Chase Field with a 1.89 ERA in three home starts, allowing just four earned runs in 19 innings. His ability to limit hard contact and work out of jams gives the Diamondbacks a real chance in a low‑scoring game, which is exactly the type of matchup they need. The keys are straightforward: Rodriguez has to set the tone early, the defense must stay clean, and the offense needs to find a way to manufacture a few runs against a Mets team that has pitched well all year. If Arizona can scratch out timely hits and avoid falling behind, they’ll have a real shot to take the series despite their recent struggles.
New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondbacks Pick
Mets vs Diamondbacks Moneyline Pick
- Arizona (4 Units)
Taking the Mets makes sense here because this sets up as the kind of game where their bullpen can actually be an advantage. With no starter named, it’s almost certainly going to be a bullpen game, and that’s been one of the few consistent strengths they’ve had — a group that keeps them in low‑scoring spots and rarely lets things unravel. Arizona, meanwhile, just isn’t hitting. Five total runs in their last four games and barely over two and a half per game across their last nine is a brutal stretch, and it puts enormous pressure on Eduardo Rodriguez to be nearly perfect. If the Mets can string together four or five clean bullpen innings and scratch out a couple of early runs, they’re in a good position to control the pace and steal another tight one from a Diamondbacks lineup that hasn’t shown signs of waking up.
Mets vs Diamondbacks Over/Under Pick
- Under (5 Units)
The Under makes perfect sense here because everything about this matchup points to another low‑scoring grind. Sugano has been terrific on the road with a 1.69 ERA, and his style plays well in a park like Chase Field where he can work ahead and limit damage. The Mets as a team have traveled well on the mound too, carrying a 3.33 ERA on the road, and their bullpen has been the one part of the roster they can rely on. Arizona’s offense is the real anchor here — they simply aren’t producing, scoring five total runs in their last four games and barely anything over the last week and a half. Even with Eduardo Rodriguez pitching well at home, the Diamondbacks aren’t giving him support, and nothing suggests that suddenly changes. This profiles like another tight, low‑event game where getting past five or six total runs would require something out of character for both teams.
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