MLB Computer Picks Today: MLB AI Picks and Best F5 Bets for June 5, 2026
Use Code WWWC The MLB computer picks model took a small step backward on Thursday, finishing 1-2 after both the Yankees and Dodgers failed to clear their First Five team totals. The absence of superstars Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani certainly played a role, as two of baseball's most explosive offenses struggled to generate the early runs needed to cash.
Despite the setback, the model remains on an impressive 15-8 run across its last eight published slates.
As always, these MLB AI picks are built around a First Five Innings framework. Rather than projecting full games that depend heavily on bullpen usage, inherited runners, and late-game managerial decisions, the model isolates starting pitching versus opposing offenses. By focusing on metrics such as wRC+, wOBA, ISO, xERA, FIP, strikeout rates, home-run suppression, and recent offensive form, the goal is to identify value before the market fully adjusts.
For Friday's slate, two offensive team totals and one First Five under stand out.
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Giants Team Total Over 2.5 Runs First Five Innings (+105)
The Giants' season-long offensive numbers appear fairly average at first glance, but recent production tells a completely different story.
Giants Offensive Profile
Season
- 100 wRC+
Last 30 Days
- 122 wRC+
Last 14 Days
- 142 wRC+ (best in MLB)
- .374 wOBA
- .520 slugging percentage
- Nearly 6.0 runs per game
Few teams are swinging hotter bats right now.
The matchup against Edward Cabrera only strengthens the case.
Edward Cabrera Key Metrics
2026 Season
- 4.47 xERA
Last Three Starts
- 5.29 xERA
- 6.02 FIP
- 2.13 HR/9
The command issues remain a major concern.
Current Giants hitters have generated a 21.4% walk rate against Cabrera in previous meetings, and when Cabrera falls behind hitters, he often becomes vulnerable to hard contact and power damage.
The combination of elite recent offensive form, increased power production, and a starter whose underlying numbers continue trending downward creates one of the strongest team-total spots available with the wind blowout at Wrigley today.
The model projects San Francisco for approximately 3.4 to 3.6 runs through five innings.
Brewers Team Total Over 3.5 Runs First Five Innings (+114)
At first glance, this looks like a simple Coors Field play.
The model sees more than that.
Milwaukee has quietly been one of the better offenses against right-handed pitching throughout the season.
Brewers vs Right-Handed Pitching
- 108 wRC+
- Above-average run creation
- Consistent offensive production
Last 30 Days
- 105 wRC+
Last 14 Days
- 107 wRC+
The matchup against Ryan Feltner is the primary driver.
Ryan Feltner Key Metrics
2026 Season
- 4.85 ERA
- 6.35 xERA
- 5.06 FIP
- 1.73 HR/9
Feltner's biggest issue is home-run prevention, and that becomes even more problematic at Coors Field.
While his 2025 numbers were significantly better, the current-season profile points toward genuine regression concerns rather than simple bad luck.
Coors amplifies mistakes better than any park in baseball. Fly balls become doubles, doubles become triples, and home-run rates can spike quickly when pitchers struggle to miss barrels.
The market has adjusted upward because of the environment, but plus money on an offense projected north of four runs remains attractive.
The model projects Milwaukee for approximately 4.1 to 4.3 first-five runs.
Mariners vs Tigers First Five Under 4.5 Runs (-145)
While the offensive plays above offer value, this remains the strongest run-suppression environment on the board.
The handicap begins with Bryan Woo.
Bryan Woo Key Metrics
2026 Season
- 3.44 ERA
- 2.92 xERA
- 2.96 FIP
- 0.76 HR/9
- 1.78 BB/9
Last 30 Days
- 1.64 xERA
- 1.28 FIP
- 0 HR allowed
Woo has quietly developed into one of the most effective pitchers in baseball.
The matchup also aligns perfectly.
Tigers Offensive Profile
Last 30 Days
- 84 wRC+
Detroit ranks near the bottom of baseball in several offensive categories and has struggled to generate consistent power.
Woo has also dominated the current Tigers roster historically:
- .171 batting average allowed
- .187 wOBA allowed
- 36 career plate appearances
The other side of the matchup matters just as much.
Seattle has been a strong offense overall, but their production drops dramatically against left-handed pitching.
Mariners Split Performance
Vs Right-Handed Pitching
- 119 wRC+
Vs Left-Handed Pitching
- 81 wRC+
That weakness becomes important against Framber Valdez.
Framber Valdez Key Traits
- Elite ground-ball profile
- Strong run prevention
- Excellent at limiting hard contact
- Consistently suppresses power
The projections reflect both pitching advantages.
First Five Run Projection
- Tigers: 1.3 to 1.5 runs
- Mariners: 1.8 to 2.0 runs
That places the expected scoring environment in the low-to-mid 3s, providing meaningful room beneath the posted total of 4.5.
Unlike a Tigers team-total under, this wager benefits from both Bryan Woo's dominance and Seattle's struggles against quality left-handed pitching, creating one of the cleanest model-driven positions on Friday's board. The juice is worth the squeeze here.
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