Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox Picks and Prediction for Sunday, May 24, 2026
Use Code WWWC The Minnesota Twins face the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts on Sunday at 1:35 PM ET, with coverage on MLB.TV. Minnesota enters at 24-27 overall and 9-13 away, while Boston comes in at 22-28 overall and 8-15 home. The pitching matchup is Bailey Ober for the Twins against Sonny Gray for the Red Sox. Minnesota has won four of the last five, including an 8-6 win at Boston on May 22. Boston had won three straight before that loss. Step up to the plate! Check out our free MLB picks for Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox prediction and swing for the fences.
Twins Bring Better Recent Form Behind Ober
The Minnesota Twins enter this matchup with a 24-27 record, including a 9-13 mark away from home. Minnesota has been the hotter side across the last five games, winning four of those contests with victories over Boston, Houston, and Milwaukee. The Twins beat the Red Sox 8-6 in the most recent game, giving Minnesota the first clear edge in the current series. That win also continued a strong short stretch in which the Twins scored at least four runs in four of the last five games.
Bailey Ober gets the start for Minnesota, and the right-hander has been solid with a 5-2 record, 3.63 ERA, and 1.07 WHIP across 57.0 innings. Ober has allowed 44 hits, 17 walks, and seven home runs while striking out 40. The Twins offense owns a .236 average, .323 OBP, .388 SLG, 238 runs, 401 hits, and 57 home runs. Byron Buxton leads Minnesota with 16 home runs and a .264 average, while Josh Bell has a team-best 29 RBI. Minnesota’s pitching staff has a 4.22 ERA and 1.32 WHIP, so Ober’s lower WHIP matters in this matchup.
Injuries:Taj Bradley, SP, 15-Day IL. Cody Laweryson, RP, 15-Day IL. Cory Lewis, SP, 7-Day IL. Julian Merryweather, RP, 7-Day IL. Tristan Gray, 3B, Paternity.
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Red Sox Lean on Gray After Late-Series Loss
The Boston Red Sox enter this game with a 22-28 record, including an 8-15 mark at home. Boston had a strong run before the series opener against Minnesota, beating Kansas City 4-3, 7-1, and 3-1 in three straight games. The Red Sox could not hold that form in the most recent matchup, losing 8-6 to the Twins at Fenway Park. That result matters because Boston’s staff had allowed only five total runs across the previous three games before Minnesota put up eight.
Sonny Gray gets the ball for Boston and gives the Red Sox the better starting pitcher numbers on paper. Gray is 5-1 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.13 WHIP across 40.0 innings, allowing 36 hits, nine walks, and four home runs with 30 strikeouts. Boston’s offense has a .240 average, .314 OBP, .365 SLG, 187 runs, 402 hits, and 36 home runs. Wilyer Abreu leads Boston with a .295 average, .360 OBP, and .442 SLG. Willson Contreras leads the Red Sox with 10 home runs and 31 RBI. Boston’s team pitching numbers are stronger than Minnesota’s, with a 3.74 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 412 strikeouts, and a .235 opponent batting average.
Injuries:Danny Coulombe, RP, 15-Day IL. Romy Gonzalez, 1B, 60-Day IL. Kutter Crawford, SP, 60-Day IL. Hobie Harris, RP, 60-Day IL. Patrick Sandoval, SP, 60-Day IL.
Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox Pick
Spread Pick for Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox Picks
- Red Sox (5 units)
The Red Sox are the pick because Gray gives Boston the stronger starting point. Ober has been good for Minnesota, but Gray owns the better ERA at 2.93 and has allowed only four home runs across 40.0 innings. Boston also has the better full-staff pitching numbers with a 3.74 ERA and 1.23 WHIP compared to Minnesota’s 4.22 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Minnesota’s recent form is better, and the Twins already beat Boston 8-6 in the last game, but the Red Sox had won three straight before that and held Kansas City to three, one, and three runs in that stretch. With Gray on the mound and Boston carrying the better pitching staff numbers, the Red Sox have enough to answer at home.
Over/Under Pick for Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox Picks
- Over (4 units)
The over is the better side based on the recent scoring and the first game of this matchup. Minnesota beat Boston 8-6 on May 22, and that result showed both offenses could produce against these staffs. The Twins have scored eight, four, six, and five runs in four of the last five games, so Minnesota has been getting steady production. Boston has also scored four, seven, and three runs across the last four games, with six more in the loss to Minnesota. The Twins have 57 home runs and a .388 SLG, while Boston has a .240 average and 402 hits. Even with Gray and Ober both bringing respectable numbers, the team trends point toward another game with enough offense to clear the number.
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