Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Friday July 24 2026
Today’s Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets picks ask whether a 65-38 powerhouse should be only -142 against a 43-60 opponent. The moneyline has held almost exactly at its earlier price, while the total has slipped from 9 toward 8.5 for Roki Sasaki against Sean Manaea.
The total move is understandable because both teams have carried lower-scoring tendencies in different situations, but the side remains the cleaner bet. More Friday analysis is available through our MLB picks and predictions and MLB player props.
Best Available Odds for Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets
- Moneyline: Los Angeles Dodgers -142 | New York Mets +120
- Run Line/Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 | New York Mets +1.5
- Total: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Game Info
- Date: Friday, July 24, 2026
- Time: 7:10 p.m. EDT
- Location: Citi Field, Queens, New York
- TV: SportsNet LA and WPIX
- Probable Pitchers: Roki Sasaki vs Sean Manaea
Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets Preview
Los Angeles owns the clearest overall advantage on the slate outside the largest favorites. The Dodgers are 65-38, 34-19 on the road and 18-12 against left-handed starters. They have not been perfect over the last ten games, but their lineup depth and bullpen quality remain far superior to New York’s season-long results.
The Mets are 43-60 and only 21-28 at Citi Field. Their offense has produced higher-scoring home games more often than their overall record suggests, but the club has struggled to turn those runs into wins, especially in close contests.
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The market has not moved off Dodgers -142, which is notable given the record gap. Sasaki’s uneven ERA and Manaea’s experience are keeping the price below the range Los Angeles often commands against a last-place opponent.
The MLB betting trends give conflicting total information. Dodgers team totals are 59-44 to the under, while Mets home games are 26-18 to the over. That disagreement is a reason to avoid making the total the primary wager.
The drop from 9 to 8.5 makes the over more tempting, but it does not create the same value as a Dodgers moneyline still below -150. Los Angeles can win a 5-3 game without either total position becoming comfortable.
Pitching Matchup
Roki Sasaki starts for Los Angeles at 3-5 with a 4.98 ERA and 85 strikeouts. His pure stuff remains better than the ERA, but command and inning-to-inning consistency have kept him from becoming a dependable ace.
The Mets can create offense if Sasaki falls behind and is forced to use the middle of the plate. Los Angeles does not need a dominant start; five innings with three runs allowed would be enough for its lineup to take over.
Sean Manaea is 2-5 with a 4.74 ERA and 81 strikeouts. The left-hander can change speeds and use Citi Field effectively, but the Dodgers are too deep against left-handed pitching to project a quiet night solely from the handedness matchup.
The bullpen gap favors Los Angeles. Even if the starters are close, the Dodgers are more trustworthy from the sixth inning onward, which is the central reason to back the favorite.
Game Thesis: The total carries legitimate arguments in both directions, but the side is simpler. Los Angeles has the better lineup, bullpen, road record and season performance, while the moneyline remains below -150 because Sasaki has not yet delivered consistent run prevention.
Best Bet - Los Angeles Dodgers Moneyline (-142)
The Dodgers moneyline is the best bet because the price is modest relative to the gap between the teams. Los Angeles has won 22 more games, plays well on the road and has a bullpen advantage that becomes more valuable in a close matchup.
Sasaki does not need to justify an ace price. He needs to keep the Mets near three or four runs and allow the Dodgers’ lineup to attack Manaea and the middle relief innings.
The bet remains playable to -150. Beyond that point, the value shrinks and the Dodgers run line would need a verified plus-money price before becoming an alternative.
Los Angeles is the clear moneyline pick. The Mets’ home over record gives them a route to score, but their 43-60 season and 9-18 record in one-run games show how often competitive games have still ended badly.
The Dodgers can win with offense, bullpen depth or a better-than-average Sasaki start. New York needs several parts of the game to break correctly at once.
Total Pick: Over 8.5
The total pick is a smaller lean to the over after the move from 9. Sasaki and Manaea both carry ERAs near 5.00, and the Mets’ home games have produced more offense than their overall record suggests.
The stronger conviction remains on Los Angeles. The projection is Dodgers 6, Mets 4.
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers 6, New York Mets 4
