Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays Picks and Prediction for Sunday, September 13, 2026

The Houston Astros visit the Tampa Bay Rays on Sunday at Tropicana Field, with the opening pitch scheduled for 1:40 PM ET and televised on MLB.TV. Houston is 75-73, first in the AL West and three games ahead of Texas, with 14 games remaining. Tampa Bay is 88-59, first in the AL East and three games ahead of the Yankees, with 15 games remaining. The Astros lost Friday’s series opener 3-1 and have dropped three of their last five games. Tampa Bay has won three of its last four, including Friday’s victory over Houston. Let’s break down the matchup with our free MLB picks.

Houston Astros Trying to Get Their Offense Going

Houston has scored three runs or fewer in three of its last five games, including Friday’s 3-1 loss. The Astros are batting .241 with a .315 on-base percentage and .409 slugging percentage, totaling 663 runs and 193 home runs. Yordan Alvarez has been Houston’s top hitter, batting .310 with 38 homers, 96 RBI and a .427 on-base percentage. Isaac Paredes is batting .260 with 19 home runs and 82 RBI, while Christian Walker has produced 25 homers and 80 RBI.

The pitching staff has been more vulnerable, posting a 4.51 ERA and 1.34 WHIP while allowing opponents to bat .238. Houston has recorded 42 quality starts, 47 saves and nine shutouts. The Astros have been much steadier defensively, ranking eighth in MLB with a .987 fielding percentage and 66 errors. Houston is 38-35 away from home.

Injuries: Yordan Alvarez is day-to-day. Brice Matthews, Mike Burrows and Carlos Correa are on the 60-day IL. Steven Okert is on the 15-day IL.

Tampa Bay Rays Finding Results Behind Strong Pitching

Tampa Bay has won three of its last four games, holding opponents to three runs or fewer in each victory. The Rays are batting an MLB-best .260 with a .328 on-base percentage and .404 slugging percentage, producing 665 runs and 157 home runs. Junior Caminero leads the power numbers with 40 homers and 95 RBI while batting .279. Yandy Diaz is hitting .303 with 22 home runs and 80 RBI, and Chandler Simpson owns a .306 average with 160 hits and 41 stolen bases.

Tampa Bay’s pitching has also been a major strength, recording a 3.79 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and .231 opponent batting average. The Rays have 55 saves, 50 quality starts and 12 shutouts. Tampa Bay ranks 23rd defensively with a .983 fielding percentage and 87 errors, a noticeable difference from Houston’s fielding numbers. The Rays are 48-25 at Tropicana Field.

Injuries: Jake Fraley and Edwin Uceta are on the 60-day IL. Jonathan Heasley is on the 60-day IL. Manuel Rodriguez is on the 15-day IL, while Taylor Walls is on the 10-day IL.

Pitching Matchup

Houston Astros - Hayden Wesneski

Hayden Wesneski is 5-1 with a 3.35 ERA and 1.03 WHIP across 45.2 innings. The right-hander has allowed only 33 hits, three home runs and 14 walks while striking out 36. Wesneski’s limited workload makes his season totals smaller than many regular starters, but his rate numbers have been strong. 

Tampa Bay Rays - Freddy Peralta

Freddy Peralta is 8-11 with a 4.82 ERA and 1.36 WHIP through 153 innings. The right-hander has allowed 153 hits, 55 walks and 23 home runs while recording 142 strikeouts. Peralta has worked considerably more innings than Wesneski, but the 23 homers and elevated ERA have created difficult outings. 

Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays Game Pick

• Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay is the pick because the Rays have been the stronger team at home and have the better overall pitching numbers. Tampa Bay is 48-25 at Tropicana Field, while its staff owns a 3.79 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. Houston has a 4.51 team ERA and has scored three runs or fewer in three of its last five games. Wesneski has pitched well, but Tampa Bay’s deeper offensive production and strong home record make the Rays the better play Sunday.

Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays Over/Under Pick

• Under

Under is the pick with Houston struggling to produce runs recently and Wesneski posting strong numbers in his 45.2 innings. The Astros have scored nine total runs over their last four games, while Tampa Bay held Houston to one run Friday. Wesneski has a 3.35 ERA and 1.03 WHIP, and Tampa Bay’s staff has a 3.79 ERA with a .231 opponent batting average. Peralta’s 4.82 ERA creates some concern, but Houston’s recent lack of scoring will help cash the total under.