2026 MLB Team Betting Trends: Run Line, Moneyline, and Totals Rankings

By: Al MacMillan Updated 08/24/2026, 05:58 AM ET
Fact Checked by Devin Erickson-Sheehy

The 2026 MLB season has produced clear separation in the betting market, and the team-by-team numbers tell the story. The Tampa Bay Rays have been the most profitable club to back on the run line, while the Philadelphia Phillies and Athletics have been steady money-losers no matter the side. Below are the full 30-team rankings for every major market, sorted by return on investment, to guide your MLB predictions and wagers.

Records reflect flat 1-unit stakes at the closing line through August 21, 2026. A positive ROI means blindly backing that side all season would have shown a profit.

The run line applies a 1.5-run spread to every game. Tampa Bay leads the league at 69-56, with Milwaukee and Atlanta close behind. On the other end, Philadelphia has been baseball's worst run-line team by a wide margin.

RankTeamATS RecordUnitsROI
1Tampa Bay Rays69-56+21.80u+14.4%
2Milwaukee Brewers67-61+15.60u+10.6%
3Atlanta Braves66-61+13.95u+9.6%
4Washington Nationals74-53+9.80u+5.6%
5San Diego Padres69-57+7.00u+4.1%
6Chicago White Sox73-51+7.40u+4.1%
7New York Yankees61-65+2.60u+1.8%
8Boston Red Sox62-61+2.75u+1.7%
9Arizona Diamondbacks68-56+0.55u+0.3%
10Baltimore Orioles66-61+0.05u+0.0%
11St. Louis Cardinals70-56-0.45u-0.2%
12Chicago Cubs61-65-0.45u-0.3%
13Minnesota Twins70-57-0.85u-0.5%
14Toronto Blue Jays66-62-1.75u-1.0%
15Colorado Rockies67-60-4.15u-2.6%
16Miami Marlins65-61-5.10u-3.0%
17Detroit Tigers59-63-5.60u-3.5%
18Houston Astros63-65-6.45u-3.8%
19Cincinnati Reds66-60-10.00u-5.6%
20Pittsburgh Pirates61-65-10.00u-6.1%
21Cleveland Guardians60-67-11.70u-7.1%
22New York Mets57-69-13.35u-8.4%
23Kansas City Royals60-64-19.40u-11.1%
24Los Angeles Angels63-64-20.10u-11.4%
25San Francisco Giants60-65-20.45u-11.7%
26Texas Rangers56-69-19.25u-11.7%
27Athletics59-69-25.15u-14.6%
28Los Angeles Dodgers54-73-23.80u-15.8%
29Seattle Mariners48-79-27.20u-18.6%
30Philadelphia Phillies51-76-30.80u-20.5%

Moneyline ROI rewards teams the market has underrated, not just the ones that win most. The Tampa Bay Rays top the board at 76-51, a rare case of an elite team that still pays its backers, with the Chicago White Sox second and Milwaukee third. The Athletics have been the single biggest moneyline drain in the sport.

RankTeamRecordUnitsROI
1Tampa Bay Rays76-51+14.95u+9.1%
2Chicago White Sox66-61+12.20u+8.9%
3Milwaukee Brewers79-49+11.85u+6.3%
4St. Louis Cardinals66-63+8.80u+6.3%
5Arizona Diamondbacks67-61+8.05u+5.4%
6Atlanta Braves75-53+6.70u+3.8%
7Chicago Cubs74-54+4.85u+2.8%
8San Diego Padres68-60+4.05u+2.7%
9Washington Nationals61-68+3.65u+2.7%
10Miami Marlins64-64+0.60u+0.4%
11Minnesota Twins63-65-0.25u-0.2%
12Colorado Rockies50-77-3.70u-2.9%
13Philadelphia Phillies70-58-5.55u-2.9%
14Boston Red Sox68-59-5.50u-3.3%
15New York Yankees72-55-6.65u-3.6%
16Cincinnati Reds61-67-5.75u-4.0%
17Houston Astros64-64-8.00u-5.3%
18Toronto Blue Jays63-66-10.10u-6.4%
19Texas Rangers63-65-10.00u-6.5%
20Cleveland Guardians62-66-10.85u-7.0%
21Baltimore Orioles61-67-10.70u-7.1%
22Los Angeles Dodgers77-51-18.15u-7.4%
23Pittsburgh Pirates63-66-13.10u-8.2%
24Detroit Tigers61-66-16.65u-10.5%
25Los Angeles Angels51-77-17.65u-12.9%
26Kansas City Royals55-74-19.10u-13.2%
27Seattle Mariners60-68-24.10u-14.2%
28San Francisco Giants52-75-20.30u-14.4%
29New York Mets58-70-26.30u-16.6%
30Athletics49-79-29.00u-20.4%

Totals splits cut both ways, so we rank the Over and the Under separately. The Chicago White Sox and Pittsburgh have been the league's premier Over teams, while the Los Angeles Angels and the New York Yankees anchor the Under side.

Best Over Teams

RankTeamOver Record (O-U)ROI
1Chicago White Sox71-54+8.6%
2Pittsburgh Pirates71-54+8.3%
3Minnesota Twins67-53+5.6%
4Houston Astros67-54+4.8%
5Washington Nationals67-56+4.3%
6Chicago Cubs68-58+3.5%
7Cincinnati Reds67-59+1.4%
8Seattle Mariners64-57+1.1%
9Texas Rangers63-59-1.0%
10Baltimore Orioles64-60-1.4%
11Athletics63-60-1.8%
12Toronto Blue Jays64-62-2.8%
13Miami Marlins63-62-3.9%
14San Francisco Giants57-58-4.9%
15Colorado Rockies62-62-4.9%
16Atlanta Braves59-63-7.3%
17Cleveland Guardians61-66-7.9%
18Tampa Bay Rays58-64-8.5%
19Boston Red Sox59-64-8.6%
20New York Mets56-62-9.2%
21Philadelphia Phillies57-64-9.4%
22Kansas City Royals59-66-9.4%
23Los Angeles Dodgers60-67-9.9%
24Detroit Tigers56-65-10.9%
25Arizona Diamondbacks55-67-13.2%
26Milwaukee Brewers56-69-13.9%
27San Diego Padres56-69-14.1%
28St. Louis Cardinals53-70-17.1%
29New York Yankees52-71-19.0%
30Los Angeles Angels53-73-19.1%

Best Under Teams

RankTeamUnder Record (O-U)ROI
1Los Angeles Angels53-73+10.9%
2New York Yankees52-71+10.1%
3St. Louis Cardinals53-70+8.1%
4San Diego Padres56-69+5.5%
5Milwaukee Brewers56-69+5.4%
6Arizona Diamondbacks55-67+5.0%
7Detroit Tigers56-65+2.8%
8Kansas City Royals59-66+1.3%
9Philadelphia Phillies57-64+1.2%
10Los Angeles Dodgers60-67+0.9%
11New York Mets56-62+0.1%
12Tampa Bay Rays58-64-0.1%
13Atlanta Braves59-63-0.6%
14Boston Red Sox59-64-0.7%
15Cleveland Guardians61-66-1.3%
16San Francisco Giants57-58-3.2%
17Colorado Rockies62-62-3.8%
18Miami Marlins63-62-5.1%
19Toronto Blue Jays64-62-5.6%
20Athletics63-60-6.3%
21Texas Rangers63-59-6.6%
22Baltimore Orioles64-60-7.0%
23Seattle Mariners64-57-9.3%
24Cincinnati Reds67-59-10.1%
25Chicago Cubs68-58-11.6%
26Washington Nationals67-56-12.3%
27Houston Astros67-54-14.1%
28Minnesota Twins67-53-14.9%
29Pittsburgh Pirates71-54-16.8%
30Chicago White Sox71-54-17.5%

Team totals isolate one club's run production rather than the combined score. Minnesota and Milwaukee have cleared their team numbers more than any other lineups, while the Mets and Dodgers have been the most dependable team-total Under sides.

Best Team-Total Over Teams

RankTeamOver Record (O-U)ROI
1Minnesota Twins72-56+5.9%
2Milwaukee Brewers70-58+3.9%
3Washington Nationals71-58+3.7%
4Chicago Cubs71-57+3.4%
5Arizona Diamondbacks70-58+2.9%
6Chicago White Sox69-58+2.1%
7Atlanta Braves68-60+0.0%
8Tampa Bay Rays68-59-0.1%
9Colorado Rockies68-59-0.7%
10Pittsburgh Pirates68-61-0.8%
11Baltimore Orioles67-61-1.4%
12Detroit Tigers66-61-1.9%
13Boston Red Sox66-61-2.0%
14St. Louis Cardinals66-63-3.1%
15Cleveland Guardians65-63-5.5%
16Houston Astros62-66-7.3%
17San Diego Padres62-66-8.5%
18Philadelphia Phillies61-67-9.8%
19Miami Marlins60-68-10.8%
20Texas Rangers60-68-12.8%
21Toronto Blue Jays58-71-15.2%
22Kansas City Royals57-72-17.1%
23New York Yankees55-72-17.5%
24Cincinnati Reds56-72-18.7%
25Athletics56-72-18.9%
26Seattle Mariners55-73-19.6%
27San Francisco Giants54-73-20.6%
28Los Angeles Dodgers52-76-23.6%
29Los Angeles Angels52-76-23.7%
30New York Mets52-76-25.9%

Best Team-Total Under Teams

RankTeamUnder Record (O-U)ROI
1New York Mets52-76+13.7%
2Los Angeles Dodgers52-76+11.7%
3Los Angeles Angels52-76+11.6%
4San Francisco Giants54-73+9.3%
5Seattle Mariners55-73+8.7%
6Cincinnati Reds56-72+6.3%
7New York Yankees55-72+5.4%
8Kansas City Royals57-72+5.2%
9Athletics56-72+4.5%
10Toronto Blue Jays58-71+4.1%
11Miami Marlins60-68+0.8%
12Texas Rangers60-68+0.5%
13Philadelphia Phillies61-67-1.6%
14San Diego Padres62-66-4.0%
15Houston Astros62-66-4.4%
16Cleveland Guardians65-63-7.3%
17St. Louis Cardinals66-63-8.3%
18Boston Red Sox66-61-9.9%
19Detroit Tigers66-61-9.9%
20Baltimore Orioles67-61-10.8%
21Colorado Rockies68-59-11.9%
22Atlanta Braves68-60-11.9%
23Pittsburgh Pirates68-61-12.3%
24Tampa Bay Rays68-59-13.0%
25Chicago White Sox69-58-13.6%
26Arizona Diamondbacks70-58-14.2%
27Milwaukee Brewers70-58-14.6%
28Washington Nationals71-58-15.6%
29Chicago Cubs71-57-17.3%
30Minnesota Twins72-56-17.6%

First-5 markets settle after five innings, isolating the starting pitchers and removing bullpen and late-inning noise. Washington has been the standout at 80-49, with St. Louis and Tampa Bay close behind.

RankTeamATS RecordUnitsROI
1Washington Nationals80-49+25.30u+16.7%
2St. Louis Cardinals77-52+14.75u+9.4%
3Tampa Bay Rays72-55+10.05u+6.6%
4Atlanta Braves71-57+8.80u+5.9%
5Detroit Tigers70-56+7.70u+5.1%
6Los Angeles Angels71-57+4.75u+3.1%
7Pittsburgh Pirates69-60-0.10u-0.1%
8Chicago White Sox68-59-0.15u-0.1%
9Milwaukee Brewers66-61-0.60u-0.4%
10Cleveland Guardians65-63-4.45u-3.0%
11Minnesota Twins66-62-5.00u-3.2%
12San Diego Padres67-61-5.30u-3.4%
13Cincinnati Reds66-62-7.55u-4.8%
14Miami Marlins65-63-9.40u-6.1%
15Colorado Rockies61-65-10.95u-7.5%
16Arizona Diamondbacks62-65-12.65u-8.3%
17San Francisco Giants63-64-13.95u-8.9%
18Philadelphia Phillies61-67-14.45u-9.6%
19Los Angeles Dodgers62-66-15.30u-9.9%
20Boston Red Sox60-67-15.05u-10.2%
21Baltimore Orioles60-68-17.45u-11.5%
22Kansas City Royals61-68-18.30u-11.8%
23New York Yankees59-68-18.05u-12.2%
24Athletics59-69-19.45u-13.0%
25Chicago Cubs57-71-23.90u-15.9%
26Toronto Blue Jays58-71-25.10u-16.3%
27New York Mets56-72-26.35u-17.3%
28Texas Rangers56-72-26.45u-17.5%
29Houston Astros55-73-28.65u-18.7%
30Seattle Mariners54-74-28.90u-19.6%

The first-5 total tracks only the runs scored through five innings. Minnesota, Houston, and Texas lead the Over side, while Toronto and St. Louis flip to strong Under numbers.

Best First-5 Over Teams

RankTeamOver Record (O-U)ROI
1Minnesota Twins72-50+9.7%
2Houston Astros70-50+8.2%
3Texas Rangers70-54+5.6%
4Chicago Cubs71-55+5.6%
5Washington Nationals69-54+4.6%
6Los Angeles Angels69-55+4.2%
7Chicago White Sox66-56+0.8%
8Atlanta Braves66-57+0.1%
9Colorado Rockies64-56-0.4%
10Milwaukee Brewers65-57-0.5%
11Pittsburgh Pirates66-59-1.1%
12Detroit Tigers63-58-2.1%
13Arizona Diamondbacks63-58-2.8%
14Boston Red Sox62-59-4.0%
15New York Mets65-62-4.5%
16Philadelphia Phillies63-61-4.7%
17Baltimore Orioles59-58-5.5%
18Athletics61-62-5.9%
19Miami Marlins61-63-7.5%
20San Francisco Giants60-62-7.9%
21Los Angeles Dodgers60-65-10.1%
22Tampa Bay Rays58-64-10.4%
23Kansas City Royals60-67-10.7%
24Cincinnati Reds57-67-13.5%
25Seattle Mariners55-65-13.9%
26Cleveland Guardians53-65-15.0%
27New York Yankees53-69-18.2%
28San Diego Padres51-72-22.4%
29St. Louis Cardinals50-72-22.7%
30Toronto Blue Jays48-76-27.1%

Best First-5 Under Teams

RankTeamUnder Record (O-U)ROI
1Toronto Blue Jays48-76+14.9%
2St. Louis Cardinals50-72+10.1%
3San Diego Padres51-72+9.5%
4New York Yankees53-69+5.1%
5Cleveland Guardians53-65+3.3%
6Seattle Mariners55-65+2.0%
7Cincinnati Reds57-67+1.1%
8Kansas City Royals60-67-0.4%
9Tampa Bay Rays58-64-1.7%
10Los Angeles Dodgers60-65-1.9%
11San Francisco Giants60-62-3.5%
12Miami Marlins61-63-4.9%
13Athletics61-62-5.1%
14Baltimore Orioles59-58-5.8%
15Philadelphia Phillies63-61-8.4%
16New York Mets65-62-8.6%
17Boston Red Sox62-59-8.7%
18Arizona Diamondbacks63-58-8.8%
19Detroit Tigers63-58-10.4%
20Colorado Rockies64-56-11.2%
21Milwaukee Brewers65-57-11.6%
22Pittsburgh Pirates66-59-11.7%
23Atlanta Braves66-57-12.4%
24Chicago White Sox66-56-12.6%
25Los Angeles Angels69-55-15.6%
26Washington Nationals69-54-16.9%
27Texas Rangers70-54-18.1%
28Chicago Cubs71-55-18.8%
29Houston Astros70-50-19.7%
30Minnesota Twins72-50-21.8%

Methodology

Every market treats each qualifying game as a flat 1-unit wager settled at the closing line. A win is a cover, a straight-up win, or an Over or Under, depending on the market. Units is the cumulative profit or loss; ROI is units divided by total bets, shown as a percentage. Home and away splits apply the same method to that subset of games. Flat staking keeps all 30 teams on equal footing so a handful of heavy favorites or longshots cannot distort the rankings.

For more MLB predictions and daily wagers, visit MLB Predictions.

Frequently Asked Questions

Which MLB team has the best run line trend in 2026?

The Tampa Bay Rays lead the league against the run line at 69-56, returning 14.4 percent on flat 1-unit stakes. The Milwaukee Brewers are second at 67-61 (plus 10.6 percent), with Atlanta third, making all three reliable cover teams this season.

Which teams should bettors fade right now?

The Philadelphia Phillies are the worst run-line team in baseball at 51-76 (minus 20.5 percent), and the Athletics have been the biggest moneyline drain at 49-79 (minus 20.4 percent). The Athletics are negative across the run line and moneyline, so there is no split that rescues them.

What is the difference between the run line and the moneyline?

The moneyline is a straight-up bet on who wins. The run line applies a 1.5-run spread — the favorite must win by two or more, or the underdog must lose by one or win outright. Because so many MLB games are decided by a single run, run-line results often diverge sharply from moneyline records.

Which teams are the strongest Over plays?

The Chicago White Sox top the full-game Over board at 71-54 (plus 8.6 percent), with the Pittsburgh Pirates and Minnesota Twins close behind. Minnesota and Milwaukee lead the team-total Overs, so those lineups have cleared the number from a different angle.

Which teams are the best Under plays?

The Los Angeles Angels lead full-game Unders at 53-73 (plus 10.9 percent), with the New York Yankees and St. Louis close behind. On team totals, the New York Mets are the strongest Under side at plus 13.7 percent, followed by the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Yes. The first-5 markets isolate the starting pitchers and remove bullpen and late-inning scoring. Washington leads the F5 run line at 80-49, while Toronto and St. Louis flip to strong F5 Under sides even though their full-game numbers look different.

These tables reflect the 2026 season through August 21 and are refreshed as new results come in. Records and ROI move daily during the season, so check back before locking in wagers.

How is ROI calculated?

Every wager is treated as a flat 1-unit stake at the closing line. Units is the running profit or loss across all of a team's games; ROI is that unit total divided by the number of bets, expressed as a percentage. A positive ROI means backing that side blindly all season would have turned a profit.

Season-long ROI tables are a starting point, not a finished play. A team covering the run line at a strong clip tells you the market has been slow to adjust to how it wins games — but the matchup, the starting pitcher, and the closing number still decide each night. We treat these rankings as a filter: they surface which sides the market has mispriced across a full season, and from there the daily wagers come down to the specific game in front of us.

21+. Please play responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. Odds and records reflect the 2026 MLB season through August 21, 2026 and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (MI/NJ/PA/WV/WY), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-888-532-3500 (VA), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), or call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN). 21+ (18+ WY). AZ/CO/IL/IN/IA/MI/NJ/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Eligibility restrictions apply. T&C's Apply. Void where prohibited. If you click on a link on this site which takes you to a bookmaker or casino and you subsequently open an account, Pick and Parlays may receive a commission. Bets placed are the responsibility of the bettor.

Copyright © 2026 Picks and Parlays. All rights reserved.

The sports news and information contained at this site is for entertainment purposes only. Any use of this information in violation of laws whether they are federal, state and/or local is prohibited. Picks and Parlays is the nation's premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information.

Sign Up Get $30 Premium Picks Credit + Exclusive Offers
Special Offer
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win
Play now Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET (Available in the US) 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY) 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). 21+ only. Please Gamble Responsibly. See BetMGM.com for Terms. First Bet Offer for new customers only (if applicable). Subject to eligibility requirements. Bonus bets are non-withdrawable. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. Promotional offers not available in Mississippi, New York, Ontario, or Puerto Rico.