UTEP vs. Missouri State, Picks and Prediction, Saturday November 15, 2025

The Missouri State Bears (6-3, 4-1 CUSA), hosting the UTEP Miners (2-7, 1-4 CUSA) this weekend, may be one of the more under-the-radar games on the slate, but I see huge value here. For all of our best bets this week, check out our featured college football expert.

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Not much excitement for UTEP

UTEP is on a two-game losing streak and is 1-7 against FBS opponents this season. The Miners picked up their lone conference win on Oct. 15, beating Sam Houston State 35-17. In their last two games, they lost to Kennesaw State 33-20 and Jacksonville State 30-27.

After starting the year with Malachi Nelson at quarterback, Skyler Locklear has taken over, completing 57.5 percent of his passes for 804 yards with seven touchdowns and five interceptions. He also leads the team with 308 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns.

The Miners rank 110th in scoring at 21.6 points per game and 114th in total offense. Their passing game ranks 82nd, while the rushing attack is 121st in yards per game. Defensively, UTEP has been better, ranking 78th in points allowed (25.8 ppg). They are 63rd in total defense, 35th against the pass, and 101st against the run.

A nice introduction to CUSA

Missouri State is competing at the FBS level for the first time, so they are not eligible for the conference championship game or a bowl game. That has not stopped the Bears from pushing for the top spot in the regular season. They are on a four-game winning streak after beating MTSU 22-20, New Mexico State 24-17, FIU 28-21, and Liberty 21-17.

Missouri State ranks 80th in total offense but just 103rd in scoring at 22.6 points per game. Quarterback Jacob Clarke leads the way with 1,927 passing yards, 15 touchdowns, five interceptions, and a 63.6 percent completion rate. They are 38th in passing yards but only 122nd on the ground.

The Bears' defense allows 25.9 points per game, ranking 80th nationally, and they also sit 80th in total yards allowed. They are 69th against the run and 92nd against the pass.

UTEP vs Missouri State Predictions

ATS Pick for UTEP vs. Missouri State

• Missouri State -4.5 (5 units)

I am laying the wood with Missouri State. The Bears’ only losses this season were to USC, SMU, and a tight game with Western Kentucky. They are also getting better as the season goes along, and since they cannot play in the postseason, I expect them to be fully dialed in for this homecoming game. The Miners’ only wins are against UT Martin and a terrible Sam Houston State team. This is a long road trip from El Paso, and I am backing Missouri State, which should be much more motivated.

Total Pick for UTEP vs. Missouri State

• Under 49.5 (5 units)

I do not see much here that suggests an offensive shootout. Against CUSA opponents only, UTEP ranks 11th out of 12 in scoring (20.2 ppg), while Missouri State is eighth (23.4 ppg). Since an opening loss to USC, Missouri State has played eight straight unders. The Miners rely heavily on Skyler Locklear to create offense, but he's not elite. UTEP is not the opponent that will do enough to help a Missouri State game finally go over.

Take the under.