USF Bulls vs UAB Blazers Picks and Prediction for Saturday, November 22nd, 2025

We have AAC action on Saturday in this USF vs. UAB prediction. USF is 4-2 in the AAC and 7-3 overall to become bowl eligible. It's been a lost season for the 3-7 UAB Blazers, who fired head coach Trent Dilfer earlier in the season and are just 1-5 in the conference. Last season, South Florida beat UAB 35–25, covering as a 14-point road underdog. Fast forward to this year, and the two programs are having completely different seasons. USF is still fighting for national respect, while UAB has been trying to survive a mid-season coaching shakeup.

Keep reading this USF vs UAB preview to see this one should play out and check out more college football predictions at Winners and Whiners!

USF Looking to Bounce Back

South Florida has been strong, but it’s taken a couple of hits lately. They’ve dropped two of their last three, including the 34–31 loss to Memphis back on October 25. They bounced back hard with a 55–23 demolition of UTSA, but last week they were stunned by Navy 41–38 as a nine-and-a-half-point favorite. Before the Memphis and Navy losses, the Bulls were legitimately in the playoff conversation.

The good news is that this offense can still blow the doors off anybody. USF ranks fifth in the nation in yards per game at 492.3. They’re putting up 41.6 points per game and doing it with a balanced attack. Senior quarterback Byrum Brown does it all for this team. He’s thrown for 2,530 yards with 21 touchdowns and only seven picks, and he’s 22nd nationally in QBR at 74.7. He’s also their leading rusher with 841 yards and 11 rushing touchdowns. That combination alone makes USF one of the hardest teams in the country to prepare for.

The USF passing game sits 29th at 268.1 yards per game, and the rushing attack ranks 13th with 224.2 yards per game. Due to USF's pace and how quickly they often strike, the defense has struggled, giving up 400.3 yards per game (95th) and ranking 124th against the pass.

UAB Trying to Stay Competitive

UAB opened the season 2–4 and decided to part ways with head coach Trent Dilfer. The move sparked a short-term lift, as the Blazers stunned Tulane 31–24 as a 24-point home underdog. Since then, the magic has faded. The Blazers have lost three straight, failing to cover in all of them, with setbacks to UConn, Rice, and North Texas.

Offensively, UAB can be dangerous in this matchup. They average 407.4 yards per game, ranking 53rd nationally. Most of that production comes through the air, with 277 passing yards per game (24th). Senior quarterback Jalen Kitna has thrown for 2,066 yards with 11 touchdowns and seven interceptions, but he’s not a rushing threat, which limits how much stress he can put on a defense. The run game has struggled, ranking 99th at 130.4 yards per contest.

The defense has not provided much help, allowing 417.9 yards per game (113th) and giving up 38.7 points, which ranks 135th. The run defense in particular has been a major problem at 190.4 yards allowed per game. They’ve also forced just three takeaways all season, ranking near the bottom of the nation. Against an explosive offense like USF, those weaknesses can get exposed quickly.

Prediction: USF Bulls vs UAB Blazers

USF vs UAB ATS Pick:

• USF -21.5 (5 units)

The spread is big, but USF is absolutely capable of covering it. The Bulls are 7–0 ATS in their outright wins this season, and every one of their American Conference victories has come by at least 27 points or more. Their 63–36 win at North Texas is a perfect example of how quickly they can run away from a team that can’t keep up. UAB has dropped five of its last six against the spread, and with this defense giving up nearly 39 points per game, I don’t see them slowing down Byrum Brown. USF is still chasing a better bowl and national respect. Take the Bulls.

USF vs UAB Total Pick:

• Over 68.5 (4 units)

No chance I’m on the under here. Both teams can score, both teams play fast, and both defenses give up chunk plays. USF ranks second in the nation in seconds per play, and UAB is 55th, so the pace will be there from the jump. Big plays should be consistent, as USF ranks 20th in offensive plays of 30 yards or more and UAB is 30th. USF averages 41.6 points per game and UAB sits at 26.8, so the math points upward. I like the over.