UCF Knights vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders, Preview, Odds, Picks and Prediction for Saturday, November 15, 2025

A pair of Big 12 programs collide on the gridiron in the Lone Star State as the UCF Knights travel to take on the #9 Texas Tech Red Raiders Saturday afternoon and we have you covered with our UCF vs. Texas Tech prediction. UCF fell 30-27 at home to Houston last Saturday, losing outright as a one-point favorite, in their previous contest. Texas Tech blasted #7 BYU 29-7 at home in their previous contest last Saturday, covering the line as a 13.5-point underdog. In the lone previous meeting between the teams, the Red Raiders picked up a 24-23 home win in the most recent matchup on November 18, 2023. Read more about this UCF vs. Texas Tech prediction! Don’t get penalized! Increase your bankroll with our NCAAF Betting Picks!

UCF Looking to Even Record With Upset Win

UCF dropped their second straight and their fifth in the last six games as they were beaten at home by Houston last Saturday. The Knights fell to 4-5 overall on the year and stand 1-5 in Big 12 action on the year. Against Houston, UCF led 3-0 after the opening quarter and 10-0 in the second quarter before settling for a 24-17 halftime advantage. The Knights led 27-24 after three quarters before getting outscored 6-0 in the fourth to wind up with the loss. UCF drove as far as the Cougars’ 24-yard line on their final drive only to throw an interception in the end zone with 11 seconds remaining. The Knights were outgained 433-282 in total offense, allowed 26 first downs while picking up 14 and lost time of possession by a 34:38 to 25:22 margin. Those numbers overshadowed that the Knights recorded four takeaways while committing two giveaways in the contest.

The Knights are 86th in the FBS in passing offense as they average 216.2 yards per game through the air. UCF is 33rd in the nation in rushing offense with 186.3 yards per contest. The Knights are 70th of the 136 teams in the FBS to take the field this season in scoring offense as they put up 27.2 points per game. UCF is 27th in scoring defense as they give up 20 points a contest. Tayven Johnson is 134 of 220 passing for 1,470 yards with five touchdowns and five interceptions while adding 84 yards plus three scores on the ground. Jacurri Brown (three of five, 97 yards, TD, INT, 142 rush yards, two TD), Cam Fancher (41 of 72, 333 yards, 170 rush yards, TD), Davi Belfort (two of four, 35 yards, INT, 89 rush yards, TD) and Brock Hansel (one of three, 11 yards, INT) are next on the depth chart. In the run game, Myles Montgomery leads the team with 118 carries for 595 yards and four touchdowns on the year. Jaden Nixon (46 carries, 485 yards, seven TD) and Stacy Gage (13 carries, 63 yards, TD) are involved in the run game as well. Duane Thomas Jr. leads the team in the passing game with 40 receptions for 402 yards on the year. DJ Black (18 catches, 244 yards, two TD), tight end Dylan Wade (29 catches, 302 yards, two TD), Chris Domercant (17 grabs, 187 yards, two TD), Marcus Burke (11 catches, 168 yards) and Montgomery (14 grabs, 151 yards) are the only other players with at least 150 receiving yards on the season. Noe Ruelas is 26 of 27 on extra points and 14 of 16 on field goals with a long of 54 this season. Noah McGough hit his lone extra point attempt and has not attempted a field goal this season.

Fancher (ribs) is out here while Montgomery (shoulder) is questionable.

Red Raiders Seeking to Keep Rolling

Texas Tech won their third straight game as they took down #7 BYU at home in a Big 12 showdown last Saturday. The Red Raiders improved to 9-1 overall and stand 6-1 in Big 12 play, leaving them half a game ahead of the Cougars for the top spot in the conference. Against BYU, Texas Tech led 10-0 after the opening quarter, 13-0 at the half and 19-0 after three quarters while keeping the Cougars off the scoreboard until midway through the fourth quarter. The Red Raiders owned a 368-265 advantage in total offense, picked up 17 first downs while allowing 14 and forced three turnovers while not committing any. Those numbers offset a 30:35 to 29:25 disadvantage in terms of time of possession in the game.

The Red Raiders enter this contest 18th in the nation in passing offense with an average of 286.9 yards per game while they are 27th in rushing offense by grinding out 193 yards per game on the ground. Texas Tech is 4th in the FBS in scoring offense by averaging 42.1 points per contest while they are 3rd in scoring defense by allowing 12.6 points per game. Behren Morton has completed 142 of 216 passes for 1,969 yards with 16 touchdowns against four interceptions on the year. Will Hammond (69 of 109, 680 yards, seven TD, three INT, 299 rush yards, five TD), Mitch Griffis (13 of 18, 212 yards, two TD, 14 rushing yards, TD) and Holden Phillips (one of one, eight yards, three rush yards) are next up on the depth chart. Cameron Dickey leads the team on the ground with 157 carries for 867 yards and 11 scores this season. Adam Hill (29 carries, 212 yards) and J’Koby Williams (105 carries, 602 yards, five TD) are secondary backs in the system. Terrance Carter Jr. is fourth on the team in the passing game with 31 receptions for 419 yards and five touchdowns. Caleb Douglas (43 grabs, 606 yards, five TD) and Coy Eakin (39 catches, 512 yards, four TD), Williams (23 catches, 332 yards, two TD) and Reggie Virgil (40 receptions, 489 yards, five TD) are also over 300 receiving yards this season. Stone Harrington is 27 of 28 on extra point attempts and 16 of 19 on field goal attempts with a long of 58 this year. Upton Bellenfant is 14 of 16 on extra points and six of six on field goals with a long of 33. Ian Hershey is two of two on extra points and has not attempted a field goal this season.

Hammond (knee) is done for the season after getting injured against Oklahoma State on October 25.

UCF vs. Texas Tech Pick

UCF vs. Texas Tech Spread Pick

• Texas Tech -23.5 (4 units)

Granted, it can be tough trying to give this many points in a game, but UCF is just 4-5 ATS on the year. The Knights have covered the line just once in their three road games, and they barely earned the cover at Cincinnati, losing by nine as a 10-point underdog. UCF is 0-3 on the road on the year. Texas Tech has covered the line in eight of its 10 contests on the year. The Red Raiders covered the line in five of their six home games and their lone failure was a 48-point win over Kent State, where the line was 48.5 points. Texas Tech has averaged 47.8 ppg at home this year and they should cover the line with another big showing to head into the bye week on a positive note.

UCF vs. Texas Tech Over/Under Pick

• Over 47.5 (4 units)

We talked about all the points the Red Raiders have averaged at home this season. The fewest points Texas Tech put up in a home game this year is the 29 they hung on BYU last week. Texas Tech hung at least 42 points in each of their other five home games on the year. UCF has stayed under the number in five of their nine games on the year though they have gone over the mark in two of their last three games. Their defense has been a bit leaky of late, allowing at least 27 points in four of their last six games. Trying to slow Texas Tech has been a massive challenge and the defense sets up short fields, recording a nation-best 23 takeaways. This game winds up over the total as a result.