TCU vs. Houston Odds, Preview, Picks, and Prediction for Saturday, November 22, 2025

On Saturday, the 23rd-ranked Houston Cougars will host the TCU Horned Frogs in a Week 13 NCAAF game at TDECU Stadium. The Big 12 Conference showdown is scheduled for 4:00 p.m. ET.

The Cougars are one-point spread favorites, and the total is 55 points scored.

This TCU vs. Houston prediction highlights a Horned Frogs team that is 3-4 in Big 12 conference competition (tied for fifth place) and a Cougars squad that's 5-2 in Big 12 play (tied for third place). These teams have split their last two meetings, with TCU winning 36-13 on the road in 2023 and UH winning 30-19 on the road last year. The Cougars lead the all-time series 14-13.

Do you need a boost in your handicapping? Try our NCAAF Predictions.

TCU could be without its top two rushers

TCU (6-4 SU, 4-6 ATS, and 5-5 O/U) has been up-and-down in Big 12 play this season and is coming off consecutive losses to Iowa State and BYU. The Horned Frogs trailed from start to finish last week against the Cougars, as they couldn't sustain drives (1-for-10 on third down). BYU dominated the time of possession and outgained TCU 447-298, as Horned Frogs QB Josh Hoover passed for a season-low 183 yards and tossed two interceptions.

“They had a great plan, they tried to take away the things we did best, they put us in a hole,” he said.

The junior Hoover has passed for 2,873 yards with 23 touchdowns and ten picks. The Rockwall, TX native's top receiving targets are senior WR Eric McAlister (52 receptions for 941 yards and eight TDs) and junior WR Jordan Dwyer (48 receptions for 621 yards and four TDs). TCU's run game is paced by senior RBs Kevorian Barnes (97 carries for 443 yards and three TDs) and Trent Battle (60 carries for 334 yards and six TDs). Barnes will not play, and Battle is questionable, so the Frogs will likely rely on sophomore Jeremy Payne, who has rushed for 126 total yards in the past two games.

TCU scores 30.7 points per game (48th) and averages 413.4 total yards (45th), including 291.4 passing yards (13th) and 122.0 rushing yards (109th). The Horned Frogs' defense allows 26.5 points (84th) and 374.3 total yards (72nd) per game, including 247.0 passing yards (111th) and 127.3 rushing yards (34th).

TCU Horned Frogs Football Injury Report:

• Leading rusher Kevorian Barnes is out.
• Starting safety Bud Clark (54 tackles and four INTs) is out.
• Second-leading rusher Trent Battle is questionable.
• Starting OG Cade Bennett is questionable.

Can Houston get to the double-digit win mark?

Houston (8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS, and 7-3 O/U) bounced back from its upset loss to West Virginia with a three-point win on the road at UCF last Saturday. The four-win Knights gave the Cougars all they could handle despite gaining only 282 total yards, as their defense forced four turnovers. While the defense kept the home team in the game, turnovers (two INTs) and penalties (nine for 75 yards) cost Central Florida a shot at the upset.

"We didn't play great. We made some critical mistakes throughout the game, but the kids really, really played hard," UH coach Willie Fritz said. "I saw that from the beginning of the game to the end of the game... Hey, this is a hostile environment. It's loud; one of the loudest places I've played in. Our guys overcame it, so great job by everybody."

Junior QB Conner Weigman leads the Cougars' passing offense with 2,113 yards, 18 touchdowns, and seven interceptions. His top receiving targets are junior WR Amare Thomas (45 receptions for 737 yards and eight TDs) and senior TE Tanner Koziol (56 receptions for 570 yards and five TDs). Senior RB Dean Connors paces the Houston run game with 158 carries for 725 yards (4.6 YPC) and four scores.

UH scores 29.5 points per game (60th) and averages 388.3 total yards (68th), including 222.1 passing yards (76th) and 166.2 rushing yards (59th). The Cougars' defense surrenders 22.1. points (43rd) and 333.1 total yards (38th) per game, including 197.6 passing yards (39th) and 135.5 rushing yards (49th).

Houston Cougars Football Injury Report:

• No significant injuries for Saturday's game against TCU.

TCU vs. Houston Pick and Preview

Spread Pick for TCU vs. Houston

• Cougars -1 (5 Units)

UH opened as a 2.5-point favorite, but I won't back TCU in this game. The Horned Frogs are too one-dimensional offensively (have only surpassed 115 rushing yards once in Big 12 play), which has made them less effective as the season has progressed (17.7 PPG last three games). Their run game could be especially ineffective on Saturday, with its leading rusher out and second-leading rusher questionable, against a Cougars defense ranked 42nd in rushing plays of ten or more yards allowed. The home team has also done an excellent job at limiting explosive plays through the air (ninth-fewest opponent passing plays of ten-plus yards). That balance has helped them get off the field on third down (28th in third down defense) and hold their opponents to field goals in the red zone (33rd in TD% allowed). Hoover is coming off his worst game of the season (43.5% completion percentage with two INTs), and I doubt he bounces back against a strong Houston defense on Saturday.

I'm also intrigued by the development of the Cougars' offense. They have a solid ground game with Connors out of the backfield and Weigman on designed QB runs, but they will probably lean more on their passing attack against the Horned Frogs' porous secondary (112th in opponent passing plays of ten-plus yards). TCU has been able to put a band-aid on its pass defense by creating takeaways (11 INTs), but with its starting safety, Clark (4 INTs), sidelined, they could struggle. Ball security has been an issue for the Cougars the last two weeks, but they were exemplary in that department before that (third-fewest turnovers in the country). I anticipate a better performance by Weigman against the Horned Frogs (121st in opponent red zone scoring percentage), which will spur a Houston victory.

 Over/Under Pick for TCU vs. Houston

• Under 55 (4 Units)

The under has cashed in two of the Horned Frogs' last three games, as their offense has sputtered. BYU put 44 points on them last week, allowing the total to go over, but I won't bet on that outcome in this matchup. In short, I feel confident the under will win due to the strength of the run defenses. TCU has held its opponents to 3.4 yards per carry and ranks 32nd in opponent runs of ten-plus yards. As I mentioned in the spread analysis, UH is also stout against the run. This will make both offenses too reliant on the passing game, resulting in a somewhat low-scoring game.