San Jose State vs. Nevada Picks and Prediction, Saturday, November 15, 2025

The Nevada Wolf Pack will host the San Jose State Spartans in a Mountain West Conference matchup. Both teams have had disappointing seasons, but there’s still an outside chance the Spartans could reach a bowl game.

Last season, San Jose State won the head-to-head meeting 35-31 as a seven-point home favorite.

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Close, but the losses keep mounting

San Jose State entered the season with higher expectations, hoping to contend in the Mountain West. Things haven’t gone as planned. The Spartans opened with an upset loss at home to Central Michigan, followed by a predictable defeat to Texas. They do have wins over Idaho, New Mexico and Hawaii, but have also fallen to Stanford, Wyoming, Utah State, and most recently Air Force, 26-16.

The Spartans need a win here to keep their bowl hopes alive, but they’ll have to visit San Diego State next week before closing the season against Fresno State, making this a critical matchup.

Led by quarterback Walker Eget, the Spartans rank No. 1 in the nation in passing, averaging 322.6 yards per game. However, they’re just 113th in rushing. Eget has thrown for 17 touchdowns against five interceptions, completing just under 60 percent of his passes. While San Jose State can throw it all over the field, the defense struggles to stop the pass, ranking 132nd nationally while giving up 281 yards per game and 117th overall in total defense, allowing 419.6 yards per contest.

Lost season for Nevada

There isn’t much positive to say about the Wolf Pack. Nevada is 1-8, with its only win coming against FCS Sacramento State, 20-17, in the second game of the season. Since then, the Wolf Pack have dropped seven straight, including a 51-14 loss to Utah State last week. Nevada was outgained 522-242 in that game and lost the turnover battle 3-0. Leading the passing attack in the blowout loss was Brock Purdy’s younger brother, Chubba Purdy, who went 3-for-7 passing with 80 yards and two touchdowns.

Nevada has not impressed on either side of the ball, though the defense has been slightly better. The Wolf Pack rank 108th nationally, allowing 30.1 points per game, and 85th in total defense, giving up 383.6 yards per game. Offensively, they rank 134th in scoring (14.0 points per game) and 132nd in total offense, averaging just 289.6 yards per game.

Nevada vs San Jose State Predictions

Wolfpack vs Spartans ATS Pick

• San Jose State -9.5 (5 units)

Even though neither team’s record stands out, San Jose State is clearly the better side. The Spartans rank 97th overall in the Football Power Index, while Nevada sits near the bottom nationally. Both defenses have been poor, but at least the Spartans have an offense capable of moving the ball. San Jose State ranks 58th in offensive efficiency, compared to Nevada at 135th.

The Spartans’ biggest weakness is defending the pass, but Nevada’s quarterbacks have collectively thrown 17 interceptions to just seven touchdowns while completing less than 56 percent of their passes. I only see one team capable of consistently moving the ball in this matchup, and that’s San Jose State. Nevada doesn’t have much to play for, while the Spartans need this win to keep their postseason hopes alive. Lay the points and take San Jose State to cover.

Wolfpack vs Spartans Total Pick

• Over 49.5 (4 units)

After scoring only 16 points against Air Force, San Jose State’s offense can be tough to trust, but this looks like a strong bounce-back spot. Nevada won’t be able to control the clock or sustain drives the way Air Force did, so the Spartans' offense will have plenty of possessions. On the other side, although I don’t trust Nevada’s offense, if there’s any defense that the Wolfpack can move the ball against, it’s San Jose State’s.

It’s an ugly total to bet because taking the over means trusting a horrendous Nevada offense, while the under relies on two hoping that two bad defenses can make stops. Although with San Jose State’s passing attack ranking No.1 in the nation in yardage, and both defenses struggling, my best play is to take the over.