San Diego State vs. Fresno State Picks and Prediction for Saturday, October 25, 2025
San Diego State Aztecs (5-1) vs. Fresno State Bulldogs (5-2)
Week 9 of the 2025 college football season brings a ton of interesting matchups on Saturday, October 25, including the Mountain West Conference showdown at Valley Children’s Stadium in Fresno, CA, so we’ve prepared the San Diego State vs. Fresno State prediction and the latest team stats, news, and odds update.
San Diego State didn’t meet Fresno State in 2024. Two years ago, the Aztecs beat the Bulldogs 33-18 as 4.5-point home underdogs, and the game went over the 47-point line. SDSU is a 2.5-point road fave this time around, while the total sits at 48.5 points.
The kick-off at Valley Children’s Stadium is set at 3:30 PM ET, so let’s look closer at this San Diego State vs. Fresno State prediction, one of our NCAAF picks for Week 9.
San Diego State continues to impress
The San Diego State Aztecs (5-1; 5-1 ATS; 3-3 O/U) are coming off a bye. The red-hot Aztecs will try to extend their SU and ATS winning streak to five games after beating their previous four rivals by an average margin of 23 points.
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SDSU’s streak started with a 34-0 blanking of California in Week 4. The Aztecs barely outlasted Northern Illinois 6-3 in Week 5 before they beat Colorado State 45-24 in Week 6. Two weeks ago, San Diego State cruised past Nevada 44-10, covering a 6.5-point spread on the road.
The Aztecs held California to 289 total yards and won the turnover battle 3-0. They allowed just 169 total yards to Northern Illinois and 254 to Nevada. Over their previous two outings, the Aztecs have mustered 949 total yards and 89 points.
San Diego State scores 30.7 points per game (tied for 52nd in the nation) on 180.2 rushing yards (47th) and 189.0 passing yards (105th). The Aztecs allow just 12.2 points in return (5th) on 95.7 rushing yards (16th) and 164.0 passing yards (also 16th).
Junior QB Jayden Denegal has tossed for 1,097 yards, seven touchdowns, and two interceptions this season. Junior RB Lucky Sutton has done a great job, rushing 105 times for 531 yards and six touchdowns, while sophomore WR Jordan Napier leads the receiving corps with 37 catches for 553 yards and two scores.
Fresno State hopes to get back on track
The Fresno State Bulldogs (5-2; 3-4 ATS; 4-3 O/U) are coming off a bye, too. Back in Week 7, the Bulldogs put an end to their five-game winning streak, suffering a heavy 49-21 defeat at Colorado State. Fresno State fell to 2-1 in conference play, and the Bulldogs were 5.5-point favorites over the Rams.
The Bulldogs outgained Colorado State 469-334 in total yards. However, Fresno State lost the turnover battle 4-0 and committed a staggering 13 penalties for 117 yards. Colorado State had a 21-0 lead early in the second quarter and never looked back.
Senior signal-caller E.J. Warner threw for 350 yards and three touchdowns against Colorado State, but he was picked off three times. Now, Warner leads the Mountain West Conference in interceptions with nine. He’s thrown for 1,486 yards and 10 touchdowns this season.
Running backs Bryson Donelson and Rayshon Luke lead the way for the Bulldogs. Donelson has amassed 519 yards from scrimmage and three touchdowns, while Luke has 512 yards from scrimmage and seven touchdowns on his season tally. Senior WR Josiah Freeman has caught 24 passes for 300 yards and four touchdowns.
The Bulldogs tally 29.3 points per game (tied for 66th in the country) on 164.6 rushing yards (58th) and 218.3 passing yards (80th). They allow 23.7 points in return (tied for 64th) on 121.4 rushing yards (39th) and 190.4 passing yards (36th).
San Diego State vs. Fresno State Pick
Spread Pick for San Diego State vs. Fresno State
- San Diego State -2.5 (5 units)
I’m backing the Aztecs to win and cover simply because I think that they are stronger than the Bulldogs at the line of scrimmage. SDSU allows just 2.8 yards per carry. The Aztecs’ defensive line is good enough to slow the Bulldogs’ ground game down. Moreover, the Aztecs take good care of the ball. They haven’t lost the fumble yet.
We should see a tight battle. The Bulldogs are a solid defensive unit. They allow 3.9 yards per carry. The Bulldogs yielded 49 points to Colorado State because of their reckless offense. During their winning streak, the Bulldogs have allowed 86 points while scoring 177 points in return, though they beat the FCS Southern Jaguars 56-7 in Week 3.
Over/Under Pick for San Diego State vs. Fresno State
- Under 48.5 (5 units)
The bookies don’t expect to see a lot of points in this game, and I can’t argue about that. As I mentioned, San Diego State’s defense has been outstanding lately. Keep your eyes on cornerback Chris Johnson, who’s amassed 32 tackles and three interceptions thus far. He’s returned two of those three picks to the house.
The Aztecs’ offense has been on fire over the last two games, but the Bulldogs won’t allow SDSU to move the chains with ease. The under has hit in seven of the last 10 encounters between these two schools, and I will ride this betting trend.
