Navy vs. North Texas, Picks, Preview, Odds and Prediction, Saturday, November 1, 2025

Undefeated Navy (7-0, 5-0 AAC) could have its toughest test of the season when they face North Texas (7-1, 3-1 AAC) on Saturday afternoon at 12 p.m. ET from Denton. The weather is supposed to be in the low sixties and cloudy during game time. Can the Mean Green be the first squad to beat the Mids in this Navy vs. North Texas prediction? These teams have met just twice, with the last game taking place in 2023, with Navy winning at home 27-24.

Looking ahead?

Navy has a shot to go to the playoffs (CFP) as the lone Group of Five pick, but they need to beat North Texas on Saturday. A loss would mean they would have to upset Notre Dame the following week in South Bend and win out to have any chance. They've been a favorite in every game they've played, but have covered just one game against FBS competition. But what the Mids have done this season on the field (SU), mainly due to QB Blake Horvath, is remarkable for a program where NIL is not part of their recruiting plan. Horvath led the Mids to an easy 44-32 win over FAU at home, where Navy led 44-19 with 5:29 left and allowed the Owls to score two late touchdowns (for the backdoor cover).

Horvath threw for 83 yards and ran for 174 yards to lead an offense that rushed for 397 yards. Brandon Chatman added 141 yards rushing on 10 carries. On the season, Horvath has completed 64.5% of his passes for 1,063 yards with seven TDs and three picks, while rushing for 814 yards and 12 TDs. An ex-factor has been SB Eli Heidenreich, who has 285 yards rushing, with 25 catches for 507 yards and four TDs.

Navy ranks first in the nation in rushing at 318.1 yards per game and 13th overall (477ypg). Unlike past seasons in the option, they can throw the ball (159ypg). The bigger issue is the Navy defense, which now ranks 115th against the pass, allowing 257 yards per game.

There are some questions on the defensive line in terms of depth, with two players (A. Lyczek and C. Herok) listed as questionable with undisclosed injuries.

Chance for Mean Green to make a statement

North Texas has one loss on the season and it came against South Florida (63-36) on Oct. 10. Since then, North Texas has won two games by a combined 72 points as they destroyed UTSA (55-17) and Charlotte (54-20) in their last game on Oct. 24. QB Drew Mestemaker completed 37 of 49 for 608 yards with four TDs and a pick.  The yardage set a conference record and he was named AP National Player of the Week.

Mestemaker is a 6-4 redshirt freshman who is having an incredible first season with 2,468 yards, 21 TDs and four INTs. He also has four rushing TDs and is completing 68.2% of his passes. Makenzie McGill II leads the Mean Green with 389 yards rushing and five TDs (5.2ypc). Wyatt Young leads all receivers with 35 catches for 586 yards and seven TDs (16.7ypc).

Offensively, North Texas has been dominant this season, ranking in the top 10 in total yards per game (496) and passing yards per game (318), while leading the nation in points per game (46.1ppg). Defensively, they are good against the pass (170.4ypc0, but the key is their rush defense against Navy and it's been subpar (191ypg).

McGill is listed as questionable with an undisclosed injury.

Navy vs. North Texas pick

Spread Pick for Navy vs. North Texas

• Navy +6.5 (5 units)

It's interesting how Navy hasn't been a dog all year, and now they will be in two straight games and possibly three with South Florida coming up on Nov. 15 (though it's at home). This is an offense that is nearly unstoppable all season, thanks to Horvath, but also his ability to throw. North Texas doesn't stop the run and USF put up 306 yards rushing against them at home. That's not a good sign when it comes to stopping Navy's option/Wing-T offense. North Texas will put up a lot of points, but so will Navy in what should be a field goal game. Navy is also fourth in third-down offense (53.8%), while the Mean Green rank 106th in third-down defensive percentage (42.9%).

Over/Under Pick for Navy vs. North Texas

Over 65.5 (4 units)

Navy and North Texas both have powerful offenses, but Navy has struggled against the pass and North Texas has struggled against the run. That's not a good formula for both defenses. The only issue might be Navy's going to try and run the clock to shorten the game, but they have a very explosive offense as well. They rank 29th at 31:20 though a strong option offense like Army ranks first.  Horvath and Mestemaker are two of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the AAC, if not the nation.