Navy Midshipmen vs. Cincinnati Bearcats, Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Friday, January 2, 2026

Get ready for a former AAC rivalry in this Navy vs. Cincinnati prediction from the Liberty Bowl on Friday at 4:30pmET from Memphis. Navy (10-2, 8-1 AAC) is going for a program-record 11th win in this bowl game. Cincinnati (7-5, 5-4 B12) is a big underdog in this game after losing four straight games SU and ATS. They also lost starting quarterback Brendan Sorsby to the transfer portal. These teams last met in November of 2022 with the Bearcats winning 20-10 at home, but Navy covered as an 18-point dog. The Mids are a 7-point favorite, and the total is 53.5. Check out more free college football playoff and bowl picks at Winners and Whiners.

Navy just missed out on the playoffs

Navy needed to beat North Texas (lost 31-17), and they would not be playing in this bowl game. They would have either been in the CFP as a Group of Five pick or playing at a more high-profile bowl. But winning 10 games for a service academy is still a major accomplishment and going 8-1 in the AAC is outstanding. They couldn't hang with Notre Dame (49-10), but since that loss on Nov. 8, the Midshipmen won three straight over USF (41-38), Memphis (28-17) on the road, and rival Army (17-16) to end the season on Dec. 13.

Navy has modified their option offense, but it still has one of the best rushing offenses in the nation, led by QB Blake Horvath, who has 1,147 rushing yards with 15 TDs and 1,472 passing yards with 10 TDs and six INTs. He's not the only weapon as FB/RB Alex Tecza adds 822 yards rushing with nine TD. WR/RB Eli Heidenreich is the team's biggest vertical threat with 46 catches for 877 yards and five TDs, but also has 437 yards rushing.

The biggest weakness for Navy is on the defensive side, especially against the pass, where they rank 104th in the nation with 241.1 passing yards allowed per game. LB MarcAnthony Parker leads the team with 93 tackles and also had a pick and two sacks.

Sorsby enters transfer portal

Cincinnati took a big hit when they lost Sorsby to the transfer portal. The starting QB threw for over 2,800 yards and ran for 580 yards with 36 combined touchdowns, with just five interceptions. Sorsby was around when the Bearcats lost their last four games to Utah (45-14), Arizona (30-24), BYU (26-14) and TCU (45-23) to end the regular season. Samaj Jones, a four-star redshirt freshman who has thrown just two passes, takes over at quarterback.

The Bearcats are led by Tawee Walker, who has 709 yards rushing and four TDs (5.9ypc) with Sorsby out. The top receiver is Cyrus Allen, who has 49 catches for 665 yards with 12 TDs. LB Jake Golday leads the defense with 104 tackles, adding 3.5 sacks and one forced fumble. The defense has recorded just two interceptions this season and Cincinnati ranks 98th in turnover margin at -0.4.

The key stat for Cincinnati is their run defense in this game and they rank 98th with 173.6 yards per game allowed.

Spread pick for Navy vs. Cincinnati

Navy vs. Cincinnati Prediction for Liberty Bowl

• Navy -7 (4 units)

It's difficult for a redshirt freshman quarterback to come in and replace one of the better dual-threat quarterbacks in the Big 12. Even though there is little film on him, Navy's pass defense would rather face Jones than Sorsby. Navy has a difficult offense to stop because its Wing-T offense features more variety than a typical option offense that starts with the fullback dive up the middle. Horvath will only throw it about 10 times in this game unless they get behind, but Cincy's defense isn't Notre Dame. They aren't going to stop Horvath and Heidenreich.

Total pick for Navy vs. Cincinnati

• Under 54.5 (4 units)

I'd go over if Sorsby was playing because he gives most defenses fits. Samaj Jones is a talented player, but with almost no experience and Navy has over two weeks to prepare as they'll throw different defenses at him. Navy is going to try and ground the clock out with the running game, making this a shorter contest. Navy has gone under in two straight and three of five.