Missouri Tigers vs Auburn Tigers Prediction and Picks - October 18, 2025

College football action on Saturday evening within the SEC, and we have a Missouri vs Auburn Prediction ready to rock and roll. The Missouri Tigers come in off a hard-fought 27-24 home loss to Alabama to drop to 5-1 on the year. Auburn is 3-3 on the year, but 0-3 in the SEC, and they are off a 20-10 home loss to Georgia. Can Auburn grab its first SEC win of the year? Read on to see our Missouri vs Auburn prediction.

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Missouri Suffers First Loss Of The Year

Missouri enters Week 8 looking to rebound from its first loss of the season—a narrow 27–24 defeat to Alabama that showcased both resilience and vulnerability. Quarterback Beau Pribula has been the centerpiece of the offense, throwing for 1,370 yards, 11 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, while adding 182 rushing yards and 4 scores. The Tigers rank 7th nationally in total offense at 511.3 yards per game, including a dominant 270.5 rushing yards, which ranks 6th in the FBS. Running back Ahmad Hardy has been a force, racking up 782 yards and 9 touchdowns on 6.8 yards per carry, while Jamal Roberts adds 400 yards and 3 scores. Tight end Brett Norfleet has emerged as Pribula’s favorite red-zone target with 5 touchdowns on 23 catches.

Missouri’s offensive efficiency has been elite, converting 48.3% of third downs and scoring on 94.1% of red zone trips. The Tigers have committed just 6 turnovers and rank 36th nationally in turnover margin. Their offensive line has paved the way for explosive runs and kept Pribula upright, allowing only 8 sacks through six games. However, the Tigers have played five of their first six games at home, and this marks the beginning of a road-heavy stretch. With upcoming games at Vanderbilt and Oklahoma, Missouri needs to prove it can maintain its offensive rhythm away from Columbia.

Defensively, Missouri has been exceptional, allowing just 16.7 points per game and 219.3 total yards, ranking 2nd nationally. The run defense has been suffocating, giving up only 68.2 rushing yards per game on 2.7 yards per carry, while the secondary allows just 151.2 passing yards and a 53.5% completion rate. Linebacker Damon Wilson Jr. and defensive lineman Zion Young have combined for 7 sacks and 7 TFLs, anchoring a front that consistently wins at the line of scrimmage. Missouri’s defense has allowed only 2 rushing touchdowns all season and ranks 5th nationally in third-down defense, holding opponents to 24.7% conversion. If the Tigers can contain Auburn’s ground game and force Jackson Arnold into obvious passing downs, they’ll be in control.

Auburn Is 0-3 Within The SEC

Auburn returns home desperate for a win after dropping three straight SEC games, including a 20–10 loss to Georgia where the offense once again failed to capitalize on defensive stops. Quarterback Jackson Arnold has shown flashes of dual-threat ability, throwing for 983 yards, 5 touchdowns, and no interceptions, while rushing for 223 yards and 2 scores. The Tigers average 331.3 total yards and 24.7 points per game, ranking 112th and 92nd nationally, respectively. Running back Jeremiah Cobb leads the ground game with 453 yards and 4 touchdowns, while wideout Cam Coleman has hauled in 305 yards and 2 scores on 24 catches. Auburn’s offense has struggled to finish drives, converting just 36.7% of third downs and ranking 126th in penalty yards at 74.7 per game.

Despite offensive limitations, Auburn has been competitive thanks to a defense that ranks 28th nationally in total yardage allowed at 311.5 yards per game. The run defense has been particularly stout, giving up just 86.5 rushing yards and ranking 11th in the FBS. Linebackers Eugene Asante and Austin Keys have combined for 84 tackles, while defensive lineman Keldric Faulk has added 4.5 TFLs and 2 sacks. Auburn’s red zone defense has been shaky, allowing scores on 92.9% of opponent trips, but the unit has kept games close by limiting explosive plays and forcing long drives. If the defense can slow Missouri’s rushing attack and force Pribula into tight windows, Auburn has a path to grind out a win.

Special teams and tempo could also play a role, as Auburn ranks 57th in time of possession and has leaned on field position to stay competitive. The Tigers have committed just 2 turnovers all season, ranking 3rd nationally, and have shown discipline in ball security despite their offensive struggles. Auburn’s red zone offense converts 94.1% of trips, and if Arnold can extend drives with his legs and Cobb finds daylight, the Tigers could control the clock and keep Missouri’s high-powered offense off the field. With Jordan-Hare Stadium behind them, Auburn will look to turn defensive grit into a much-needed SEC win.

Missouri vs Auburn Pick

Missouri vs Auburn Spread Pick

• Missouri -1.5 (5 Units)

Missouri -1.5 is a sharp position in a matchup where trench dominance, defensive consistency, and offensive balance favor the visiting Tigers. Missouri ranks 2nd nationally in total defense, allowing just 219.3 yards per game, and has given up only 2 rushing touchdowns all season. Auburn’s offense has struggled to sustain drives, converting just 36.7% of third downs and averaging 24.7 points per game, with Jackson Arnold still searching for rhythm against SEC defenses. With Ahmad Hardy and Jamal Roberts combining for over 1,100 rushing yards, Missouri can control tempo and wear down Auburn’s front seven.

On the other side of the ball, Missouri’s pass rush and third-down defense—holding opponents to 24.7% conversion—should force Auburn into predictable passing situations. The Tigers have allowed just 6 turnovers all season and rank 36th in turnover margin, while Auburn has committed only 2, but lacks the explosive playmakers to stretch Missouri’s secondary. If Beau Pribula continues to protect the ball and the defense maintains its elite form, Missouri is built to cover and grind out a road win in a low-possession, field-position battle.

Missouri vs Auburn Over/Under Pick

• Under 43.5 (4 Units)

Under 43.5 is in play with two defenses that thrive in the trenches and offenses that lean on ball control over tempo. Missouri allows just 16.7 points per game, and Auburn’s defense ranks 11th nationally against the run, giving up only 86.5 yards per game. Both teams rank top-40 in red zone scoring but bottom-30 in explosive play rate, suggesting long drives and limited fireworks. If the pace stays slow and field goals replace touchdowns, this total could stay comfortably under.

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