Miami (OH) vs. Western Michigan Picks and Prediction for Saturday, December 6, 2025

The Miami RedHawks (7–5, 6–2 MAC) and Western Michigan Broncos (8–4, 7–1 MAC) will collide Saturday at noon EST inside Ford Field for the MAC Championship. These teams already squared off in late October, a game Miami won 26–17. On paper, this matchup is very even, as Miami enters this week ranked 83rd in the College Football Power Index, with Western Michigan close behind at 85th. Check out more of these free college football and NFL picks at Winners and Whiners.

Both teams started their seasons 0-3 in non-conference games before regrouping to get here. This will be Miami's third straight appearance in the title game, and Western Michigan's first since 2016.

Maybe Finn quit, but the Redhawks didn't

Miami opened the season in a deep 0–3 hole after dropping non-conference games to Wisconsin, Rutgers, and UNLV. Once MAC play began, the RedHawks found their rhythm,  opening 4–0 in the league before a narrow 24–20 road loss at Ohio. From there, the season took one of the stranger turns in college football this year. Just days before a crucial home game against Toledo, quarterback Dequan Finn — who had led Miami in passing yards after transferring from Baylor — abruptly left the program to prepare for the NFL Draft, despite the team being in the middle of a conference championship push.

The Toledo game was supposed to be a big showdown for Finn, who also played for the Rockets from 2019-2023. Miami clearly felt his absence in that game and lost 24-3 to Toledo, but since then, the RedHawks have recovered quickly behind freshman Thomas Gotowski. In his two starts, Gotowski completed 53.2% of his passes for 411 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions, including a three-touchdown performance in last week’s 45–24 win over Ball State. Miami also handled Buffalo 37–20 on the road in Gotowski's other start.

On offense, Miami hasn’t done much that is overly impressive, averaging 355.2 yards per game to rank 90th nationally, with most of its passing production coming before Finn’s departure. The RedHawks sit 101st in passing and 69th in rushing while scoring 26.1 points per game, which places them 81st in the country. Defense, however, is their clear strength. Miami allows just 324.3 yards per game, ranking 28th in total defense, including strong work against the run at 28th nationally and steady coverage that sits 47th against the pass. The RedHawks also give up only 21.9 points per game, good for 41st in the FBS.

Miami also likely has the best kicker in the MAC in Dom Dzioban, who went 19-for-21 on field goals with a long of 51 yards and made every extra point he attempted (33-for-33).

It's been a long time coming

Western Michigan followed a similar early-season script, opening 0–3 with losses to Michigan State, North Texas, and Illinois. Their season flipped when they upset Toledo 14–13, a win that ultimately positioned them to take control of the MAC West. The Broncos’ only conference loss came in the first meeting with Miami, and they head to Detroit riding a four-game winning streak, including a 31–21 victory over Eastern Michigan on Nov. 25.

Defense has carried Western Michigan all year, as the Broncos allow just 302.3 yards per game, the 17th-best mark in the country. They are especially sharp against the pass, ranking 18th nationally, while also sitting 38th against the run. That defensive consistency translates directly to the scoreboard, where Western Michigan gives up only 18.7 points per game, making them the 16th-ranked scoring defense in the FBS.

Offensively, things are not as impressive. The Broncos rank 112th in total offense, 129th in passing, and 96th in scoring at 23.7 points per game. What they lack in balance, they make up for with quarterback Broc Lowry’s dual-threat ability. Lowry has completed 63.5% of his passes for 1,572 yards with seven touchdowns and two picks, but his legs are the real problem for defenses. He leads the team with 875 rushing yards and has found the end zone 14 times on the ground, giving Western Michigan a reliable source of offense even when the passing game struggles.

Miami Ohio vs Western Michigan Predictions

Miami Ohio vs Western Michigan Against the Spread Pick:

• Miami (OH) +2.5 (4 units)

Miami already beat Western Michigan once this season, and catching the RedHawks as an underdog in the rematch offers solid value. This will be the program’s third straight MAC Championship appearance under head coach Chuck Martin, who knows how to have his team prepared for moments like this. Miami also has the luxury of having the best kicker in the MAC, and in a game that projects to be so close, that advantage matters.

With the way their young quarterback, Gotowski, has settled into the offense and how the entire team responded to adversity down the stretch, I will take Miami to cover.

Miami Ohio vs. Western Michigan Total Pick

• Over 43.5 (4 units)

Both defenses are among the best in the MAC, but with perfect indoor conditions at Ford Field and 12 games of film for both coaching staffs, the offenses should operate cleaner than they did in the first meeting. That game produced 43 points outdoors, and this matchup brings more explosive potential with the offenses in rhythm late in the season. Overtime is also very much in play with two evenly matched teams, and that's never an unders friend.

Go over the total.