Memphis vs South Florida Picks and Predictions for Thursday, November 12, 2026

Memphis visits South Florida on Thursday for an American Conference matchup at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa. The Tigers are 7-2 and 4-1 in conference play, coming off a 49-22 win over Army. South Florida is 6-3, 2-3 in the conference, after losing 20-17 at East Carolina on Friday. Memphis has won two straight; the Bulls have won two of their last three. Kickoff is at 8:00 pm ET on ESPN. The Tigers are favored by 5.5 points, with the total at 48.5. Make your Thursday pick with our free college football picks.

Memphis Bringing Plenty of Firepower

Memphis allowed Army to pull within 35-22 in the third quarter, but that was as close as the Black Knights got. Memphis scored the final 14 points, wrapping up a 49-22 win behind a big night from Marcus Stokes. The quarterback threw four touchdown passes, ran for another score, and finished with 371 passing yards. Jermane Hayes and Jemyri Davis caught two touchdowns apiece. The Tigers piled up 554 yards and converted 11 of 15 third downs. 

Stokes has thrown for 2,532 yards, 25 touchdowns and six interceptions, completing 69.1% of his passes. Jaylin Carter has rushed for 929 yards and 10 scores, averaging 6.2 yards per carry. Hunter Tipton leads Memphis with 495 receiving yards, while Davis has six touchdown catches. The defense also contributes. Elijah Kinsler owns 5.5 sacks, and Dylan Smith has three interceptions. 

Injuries: Brady Kluse is questionable.

South Florida Looking for a Response

South Florida came close to forcing overtime at East Carolina on Friday, only to lose 20-17 on a 55-yard field goal with two seconds remaining. Jason Collins Jr. had tied the game with a one-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter. Luke Kromenhoek completed 17 of 21 passes for 179 yards and found Bryson Rodgers for an early touchdown. D.J. Crowther added 111 rushing yards, but the Bulls finished with just 329 yards of offense.

Crowther leads South Florida with 689 rushing yards and seven touchdowns. Michael Van Buren Jr. has thrown for 1,273 yards, six touchdowns, and no interceptions, while Rodgers has 395 receiving yards. C.J. Hicks has recorded five sacks, and Michael Williams II has added four. But scoring remains a concern after the Bulls managed only 17 points against East Carolina.

Injuries: Arhmad Branch and J. Alexis are questionable.

Key To The Game

South Florida needs to keep Stokes watching from the sideline. Carter's running gives Memphis a second way to move the chains, and the Tigers just converted 11 of 15 third downs against Army. Crowther can help the Bulls control possession, but long scoring drives will matter more than simply holding the football.

Memphis vs South Florida Game Pick

• Memphis Tigers -5.5

South Florida has a capable ground game, and Crowther's 111 yards against East Carolina showed he can carry the workload. The bigger concern is keeping up with Memphis. Stokes threw four touchdowns against Army, and Carter already has 10 rushing scores this season. The Tigers can change how they attack without losing much production. South Florida's pass rush might disrupt a few possessions, with Hicks rushing. But Memphis has more proven scoring options and enters with consecutive victories. I'll take the Tigers to cover 5.5 points.

Memphis vs South Florida Over/Under Pick

• Over 48.5

Memphis has scored 49 and 41 points in its last two games. That alone makes the total worth examining, especially with Stokes throwing for 2,532 yards and Carter approaching 1,000 on the ground. South Florida scored only 17 last week, but Crowther ran for 111 yards, and the Bulls have scored 30 or more in two of their previous three wins. Memphis also gave up 34 to East Carolina in its overtime victory. There's room for both offenses to contribute here. I'll take the over 48.5.