LSU Tigers vs. Houston Cougars Picks and Prediction for Saturday, December 27, 2025

We’re in the heart of bowl season and it brings us a clash between the SEC and the Big 12 when the LSU Tigers travel to face the #21 Houston Cougars Saturday night in the Kinder's Texas Bowl and we have you covered with our LSU vs. Houston prediction. LSU closed their regular season slate with a 17-13 road loss to #8 Oklahoma in their previous contest November 29, covering the line as a 12-point underdog. Houston downed Baylor 31-24 on the road in their regular season finale November 29, winning outright as a 2.5-point underdog, in their previous game. In the all-time series between the teams, the Tigers own a 2-1 advantage, including winning 28-13 in the most recent meeting September 9, 2000. Read more about this LSU vs. Houston prediction! Don’t get penalized! Increase your bankroll with our NCAAF Betting Picks!

LSU Trying to Finish Season Strong

LSU saw their two-game winning streak snapped as they were dropped at #8 Oklahoma in their regular season finale. The Tigers fell to 7-5 overall and finished 3-5 on the year in SEC action. Against Oklahoma, LSU was down 3-0 after one quarter, tied at three at the half and at 10 after three quarters. The Tigers took a 13-10 lead midway through the fourth quarter but gave up the winning score with 4:16 remaining. LSU was outgained 393-198 in total offense, gave up 14 first downs while recording nine and lost time of possession by a 30:41 to 29:19 margin. The Tigers did force three takeaways while committing just one in the game. Brian Kelly was fired earlier this season. The team hired Lane Kiffin earlier this month but Frank Wilson will coach the Tigers here.

On the year, the Tigers are 66th in the nation in passing offense with an average of 226.4 yards per game through the air while they are 122nd in rushing offense with 106.3 yards per contest. LSU is 109th in the FBS in scoring offense with an average of 21.8 points per game last season while the Tigers are 14th in the country in scoring defense by allowing 18.3 points a contest. Garrett Nussmeier has completed 194 of 288 passes for 1,927 yards with 12 touchdowns against five interceptions while adding a score on the ground. Michael Van Buren Jr. (78 of 125, 743 yards, five TD, two INT, 105 rush yards, TD) is the backup. Caden Durham leads the ground game with 106 carries for 505 yards and three scores on the year. Harlem Berry (101 carries, 446 yards, two TD), Zavion Thomas (17 carries, 95 yards) and Ju’Juan Johnson (38 carries, 151 yards, two TD) have all seen work on the ground. Aaron Anderson is third on the team with 33 receptions for 398 yards on the season. Barion Brown (52 catches, 495 yards, TD), Bauer Sharp (24 grabs, 252 yards, two TD). Kyle Parker (24 receptions, 262 yards, three TD), Trey’Dez Green (29 grabs, 353 yards, five TD) and Thomas (40 catches, 473 yards, four TD) are all over the 250-yard mark in receiving yards. Damian Ramos is 24 of 25 on extra point attempts and 24 of 28 on field goal attempts with a long of 52 on the year.

Key Injury Report for LSU:

• Defensive tackle Ahmad Breaux (transfer portal) is out.
• Offensive lineman Carius Curne (transfer portal) is out.
• Cornerback Mansoor Delane (opt-out) is out.
• Wide receiver Aaron Anderson (opt-out) is out.
• Linebacker Harold Perkins Jr. (opt-out) is out.
• Quarterback Garrrett Nussmeier is out.
• Linebacker Whit Weeks is out.

Cougars Seeking to Earn Bowl Win

Houston downed Baylor in their regular season finale to finish on a positive note. The Cougars enter this game 9-3 overall on the year and finished fourth in the Big 12 with a 6-3 mark in conference play. Against Baylor, Houston never trailed in the game, leading 7-0 after one quarter, 17-9 at the half and 24-9 after three quarters. The Cougars saw Baylor storm back to tie the game at 24 before driving 74 yards in 15 plays, capped by Dean Connors’ one-yard touchdown run with 1:57 remaining, to earn the win. Houston picked up 29 first downs while allowing 25, forced a pair of turnovers while committing one and held a 36:26 to 23:34 margin in time of possession to make up for being edged 421-417 in total offense.

On the season, Houston stands 84th in the nation in passing offense with an average of 215.3 yards per game through the air on the year. The Cougars are 48th of the 136 FBS teams to see action in rushing offense as they average 175.7 yards per contest. Houston is 62nd in scoring offense with 28.3 points per game while they stand 41st in the country in scoring defense by allowing 21.8 points per contest. Conner Weigman is 204 of 319 passing for 2,475 yards with 21 touchdowns and nine interceptions while ranking second on the team with 644 rushing yards plus 11 scores. Zeon Chriss-Gremillion is 10 of 21 for 108 yards with one touchdown and one interception plus 79 rushing yards as the backup quarterback. Dean Connors leads the run game with 184 carries for 851 yards and five scores on the year. Stacy Sneed (35 carries, 127 yards) and DJ Butler (60 carries, 280 yards) are the next backs up in the system. Tanner Koziol leads the team with 65 receptions for 651 yards and five scores on the season. Stephon Johnson (13 catches, 275 yards, two TD), Connors (31 receptions, 242 yards, three TD and Amare Thomas (59 grabs, 906 yards, 10 TD) are the only other players with more than 200 receiving yards on the season. Ethan Sanchez is 38 of 38 on extra point attempts and 20 of 25 on field goal attempts with a long of 52 this season.

Key Injury Report for Houston:

• Center Demetrius Hunter (left program) is out.

LSU vs. Houston Pick

Spread Pick for LSU vs. Houston

• Houston -2.5 (4 units)

LSU has had a tumultuous offseason and while things may get better next season with Kiffin running the show, it doesn’t make for bright times here. Nussmeier won’t play and that means Van Buren makes his fourth straight start here. The Tigers are missing key contributors on both sides of the ball and that is going to impede their ability to make plays. Houston is likely to have most of their starters on the field in this contest and that definitely works in their favor. We saw LSU struggle offensively down the stretch, scoring 13 points or less in three of their last four games. Take Houston in this contest.

Over/Under Pick for LSU vs. Houston

• Under 41.5 (4 units)

LSU comes into this game staying under the total in nine of their 12 games this season. The Tigers stayed under the mark in each of their final four games, totaling just 62 points in that span, an average of 15.5 points per game. They haven’t put up more than 25 points in any of their last eight games. Houston saw the over post a 7-5 mark in their 12 games on the year. The Cougars scored at least 31 points in seven of their 12 games on the year. Houston’s defense allowed 20 points in six of their games on the year. With LSU struggling to score and missing pieces, this game winds up short of the mark.