Houston vs. UCF Preview, Odds, Picks and Prediction for Friday, November 7, 2025

On Friday night, the Central Florida Knights will host the Houston Cougars in Week 11 NCAAF action at Acrisure Bounce House. The Cougars are 1.5-point spread favorites, and the total is 47.5 points scored. The Big 12 Conference battle is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. ET.

This Houston vs. UCF prediction highlights a Cougars squad that lost for just the second time this season last weekend and a Knights team that has dropped four of its previous five games. Friday's contest marks the 12th all-time matchup between Houston and UCF on the gridiron. The Knights lead the series 8-3 and have won three straight games, including the most recent matchup in 2023.

Do you need a boost in your handicapping? Try our NCAAF Predictions.

Houston coughed up the football four times last week

Houston (7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS, and 6-3 O/U) lost 45-35 to West Virginia last Saturday, snapping its three-game winning streak. The Cougars are tied for third place in the Big 12 standings with a 4-2 record.

UH was upset by WVU as 12.5-point favorites, as the Mountaineers jumped out to a 14-0 first-quarter lead and held off the home team's comeback efforts. The Cougars tied the score at 21 before halftime, but West Virginia went up ten in the third quarter with a field goal and an 80-yard interception return for a touchdown. The Mountaineers led by 17 with just over three minutes left in the game. Houston was outgained by just three yards, but lost the turnover battle 4-0.

“It's difficult for Vince Lombardi's Green Bay Packers to win when you do that,” Houston coach Willie Fritz said of the team's turnovers.

Junior QB Conner Weigman leads the Cougars' passing offense with 1,890 yards, 16 touchdowns, and four interceptions. His top receiving targets are junior WR Amare Thomas (40 receptions for 634 yards and seven TDs) and senior TE Tanner Koziol (48 receptions for 504 yards and five TDs). Senior RB Dean Connors paces the Houston run game with 148 carries for 657 yards (4.4 YPC) and four scores.

UH scores 29.4 points per game (61st) and averages 383.3 total yards (73rd), including 222.0 passing yards (82nd) and 161.3 rushing yards (63rd). The Cougars' defense surrenders 21.6 points (40th) and 338.8 total yards (41st) per game, including 204.4 passing yards (46th) and 134.3 rushing yards (47th).

Houston Cougars Football Injury Report: DL Carlos Allen Jr. and RB Stacy Sneed are questionable to play against UCF.

UCF played poorly off a bye week last Saturday

Central Florida (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS, and 3-5 O/U) lost 30-3 to Baylor in its previous game. UCF is 1-4 in Big 12 play this season.

The Knights were uncompetitive on the road against the Bears, as Baylor stormed out to a 20-0 first-half lead and never looked back. UCF was outgained 417-225 and was a combined 1-for-14 on third and fourth down. It was a sloppy, undisciplined showing by a team coming off a bye week, as they also turned the football over twice and committed eight penalties.

“That was as frustrating of an offensive performance as I’ve been a part of,” UCF coach Scott Frost said.

Junior QB Tayven Jackson leads the Central Florida passing game with 1,334 yards, five touchdowns, and four interceptions. His top receiving targets are junior WR Duane Thomas Jr. (38 receptions for 393 yards), junior WR DJ Black (18 receptions for 244 yards and two TDs), and junior TE Dylan Wade (23 receptions for 222 yards and one TD). The Knights' ground game is paced by senior RB Myles Montgomery (112 carries for 572 yards and three TDs).

UCF scores 27.3 points (74th) per game and averages 417.6 total yards (53rd), including 226.3 passing yards (77th) and 191.4 rushing yards (33rd). The Knights' defense allows 18.8 points (20th) and 307.8 total yards (19th) per game, including 161.4 passing yards (11th) and 146.4 rushing yards (67th).

UCF Knights Football Injury Report: OL Paul Rubelt is expected to play, and WR Marcus Burke is out for Friday's game against Houston.

Houston vs. UCF Pick and Preview

Spread Pick for Houston vs. UCF

• Cougars -1.5 (5 Units)

The Bounce House is an intimidating environment, but there are too many red flags to pick the Knights to cover, especially considering that they're only getting one point. They're coming off an awful showing last week, as their offensive performance was downright offensive. For a team coming off a bye, UCF was turnover-prone and undisciplined, putting itself behind the eight ball all game. If those costly mistakes rear their ugly head again this week, the home team will get crushed, as Houston ranks 23rd nationally in turnovers and 30th in penalties per game.

Central Florida is a good defensive team, and I expect that to keep the score close in the first half, but Weigman and the Cougars will pull away after halftime to easily cover the spread. The visitors convert their third downs (48th in conversion rate) and come away with points in the red zone (12th in scoring percentage). The Knights, on the other hand, rank 123rd in third-down conversions and 103rd in red zone conversions. At 7-2, Houston still has plenty of motivation to keep winning and should bounce back from an uncharacteristic, sloppy performance against West Virginia.

Over/Under Pick for Houston vs. UCF

• Under 47.5 (4 Units)

I expect a mostly defensive game on Friday night, with the Knights keeping the score close in the first half. After halftime, the Cougars will separate to cover the spread, but the Knights' lack of offensive momentum will keep the total from reaching 48 points. Both teams grade out well defensively, ranking 48th (UCF) and 60th (UH) in Havoc. They rank 17th (UCF) and 29th (UH) in third-down defense, and 44th (UH) and 48th (UCF) in average time of possession, as well. Considering neither team played well last week, I don't anticipate either squad dominating from start to finish, so the game should be mostly competitive and lower-scoring.