California vs. Hawaii Picks, Preview, Odds and Prediction for Wednesday, December 24, 2025

The Sheraton Hawaii Bowl gives us a fun Christmas Eve matchup between California (7–5) and Hawaii (8–4), featuring a battle of freshman quarterbacks and two teams that want to end the year on a high note.

Cal is coming in off a wild 38–35 win over SMU, but is in transition after a late-season coaching change. As for Hawaii, they are back in a bowl game for the first time since 2020 and get to play this one at home under the steady leadership of Timmy Chang. The numbers say this should be tight, so let's dive into the full California vs Hawaii prediction, but make sure you check out all of our other great college football picks.

A new era for California football

After a 3-0 start, California’s season hit some rough patches, but the Golden Bears still got to 7–5 and finished the regular season with a strong win over SMU. There are no major opt-outs for Cal, but this bowl game comes at an interesting time for the program. Former head coach Justin Wilcox was fired with one game left in the season after a blowout loss to Stanford, ending a nine-year run that never produced a winning conference record. Oregon defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi has been hired as the next head coach, but Nick Rolovich, the previous senior offensive assistant, is currently serving as the interim head coach. Rolovich was the head coach at Hawaii from 2016 to 2019, and also had a brief stint in the same role at Washington State during the COVID-19 pandemic, which ended due to some of his views.

On offense, Cal is almost entirely built around its passing game. The Bears rank 24th nationally in passing yards at 270.8 per game, while the run game has been a major weakness, ranking 136th at just 76.5 yards per contest. Freshman quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has been solid, throwing for 3,117 yards with 17 touchdowns and nine interceptions. The Hawaii native playing in his home state adds a cool storyline, but he’ll need to carry the offense again.

The California defense may be the most trustworthy unit in this matchup. The Bears rank 33rd against the pass and 58th in total defense, which lines up well against Hawaii's pass-heavy approach.

Hawaii is home for bowl season

Hawaii’s return to bowl season has been one of the better stories in the Mountain West, as the Rainbow Warriors come in at 8–4 and are playing in their first postseason game since 2020. Timmy Chang is now in his fourth season as head coach, and that stability has shown. This team knows what it wants to be, and playing at home is a massive bonus, especially for a program that went 6–1 outright on the islands this year.

Offensively, Hawaii also lives through the air. The Rainbow Warriors rank 11th nationally in passing yards at nearly 290 per game, with freshman quarterback Micah Alejado running the show. Alejado threw for 2,832 yards with 21 touchdowns and nine interceptions, and he’s looked comfortable in this system all season. Also similar to Cal, Hawaii doesn’t get much from the ground game, ranking 128th in rushing, but the passing volume has been enough to average 28.5 points per game.

Defensively, Hawaii is better than it gets credit for. The Warriors rank 51st in total defense and 58th in scoring defense, and they’re especially solid against the run (40th nationally).

California vs. Hawaii Predictions

California vs Hawaii ATS Pick:

• California Golden Bears +1 (5 units)

The coaching situation at Cal may look messy on the surface, but there’s more continuity here than it first appears. After Justin Wilcox was fired late in the season, Nick Rolovich stepped in as the interim head coach for the SMU game, and the team responded. Now coming into the Hawaii Bowl, Rolovich is no lame duck interim, as he will also remain on the new staff under new head coach Tosh Lupoi as assistant head coach and quarterbacks coach.

With Rolovich leading the way, the motivation seems to be there. Not only is he a Hawaii graduate, but he is also a former head coach there. With California having no additional opt-outs for this bowl game, this doesn't feel like a team going through the motions. It feels like a group trying to prove something and set a foundation for what’s next.

Cal owns the edge in strength of schedule (78th vs. Hawai‘i’s 107th) and brings the better pass defense into a game dominated by freshman quarterbacks. With Rolovich still calling the shots offensively and working directly with Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele — another Hawai‘i connection — Cal should be comfortable, focused, and locked in.

I will back the Golden Bears.

California vs Hawaii Total Pick:

• Under 52.5 (3 units)

Even with two pass-heavy offenses, I don't expect a shootout. Both teams are one-dimensional offensively as they do not run the ball well, which will allow both defenses to focus on what they already do best.

California’s pass defense can slow Hawaii down, and Hawaii’s defense is good enough to keep Cal from hitting explosive plays. Add in two freshman quarterbacks on a bowl stage, and I’m expecting more long drives than quick strikes. I like the under.