Army Black Knights vs. Air Force Falcons, Preview, Odds, Picks and Prediction for Saturday, November 1st, 2025

The Army Black Knights (3-4, 3-4 ATS, 2-5 O/U) take on the Air Force Falcons (2-5, 3-4 ATS, 6-1 O/U) in the annual Commander-in-Chief's Trophy showdown on Saturday afternoon. The Black Knights were hit with a road loss by Tulane in their previous action. The Falcons earned a home win against Wyoming in their recent clash. Army posted a 20-3 home win against Air Force last season.

Can Army climb back to the .500 mark in this rivalry showdown on Saturday? Check out the Army vs. Air Force prediction. Do you need a boost in your handicapping? Try our NCAAF Picks!

Army Seeks .500 Mark on Saturday

The Army Black Knights step out of conference play this week for a meeting with rival Air Force. Army is having an inconsistent season due to the offense. They posted a road win against UAB to begin October and earned a home win against Charlotte in their next game. Next, the offense stumbled in a 24-17 road loss against Tulane in a bout that had the Black knights marked as 10-point dogs to dip to 2-3 in conference play. The Black Knights have covered the spread in two of their past five games.

Army has a unique offense that consists primarily of running plays. It is a triple-option offense. They share the duties at QB with Cale Hellums and Dewayne Coleman. Hellums has 274 passing yards with a 1:1 TD to INT ratio. Coleman has 273 passing yards with two TDs against two picks. While the QB, Hellums, leads the squad in rushing. The junior QB amassed 155 rushing yards in the recent defeat and has 613 rushing yards on the year.

The Army offense has three players with 300+ rushing yards. Hayden Reed has surpassed 50 rushing yards in two straight games. The senior RB has managed 322 rushing yards on the season. Noah Short, who is actually a wide receiver, has netted 353 rushing yards.

Brady Anderson brought in 97 yards in receiving in the defeat against Tulane. The sophomore WR has recorded 264 receiving yards on the season. The Army offense racked up 358 total yards against Tulane. They are averaging 361 yards per game.

The Black Knights' defense is their top strength. The group had a rough one early in the season against Tarleton State and struggled against North Texas last month. The defense has been stingy in every other game. They gave up 402 total yards against Tulane but only 24 points. They are keeping opponents to 348 yards per game. Andon Thomas leads the team with 59 tackles. The pass defense is 47th, while the rush defense is 67th.

Army is averaging 23.9 points on the season, ranking them 90th. The Black Knights are conceding an average of 24 points, placing them 52nd.

Air Force Eyes Second Straight Win

The Air Force Falcons are targeting a second consecutive win on Saturday. Air Force won its season opener, followed by a losing streak of five games due to its shaky defense. This includes a home defeat against Hawaii and a narrow road loss against Navy. The Falcons ended the slide with a 24-21 home win against Wyoming two weeks ago to improve to 1-4 in MWC action, but did not cover the four-point spread. The Falcons have covered in two of their past five games.

Liam Szarka is under center. The sophomore QB does not attempt many passes, about 15-20 per game. He has surpassed 200 passing yards on three occasions and has 1058 passing yards and an 8:3 TD to INT ratio on the year.

Similar to Army, Air Force opts for the run in most plays. They have five players with 196 or more rushing yards. Liam Szarka, the QB, is most dangerous on the ground, racking up 725 rushing yards.

Owen Allen is in a groove, posting 105 rushing yards in the win against Wyoming. The junior running back has netted 372 rushing yards. Dylan Carson is next up with 288 yards this season. Cade Harris is a huge threat down the field. The senior WR has surpassed 100 yards in two games and has brought in 492 receiving yards on the year. The Air Force offense registered 363 total yards in the win against Wyoming. They are averaging 472 rushing yards per game.

The Falcons' defense is a weakness. They came through with their best defensive effort of the season last week, keeping a potent offense to 21 points, but they did give up 400+ yards. The Falcons' defense is squandering 484 yards per game. Blake Fletcher leads the team with 69 tackles. The pass defense is 135th, and the rush defense is placed 105th.

Air Force is posting an average of 36.3 points on the season, ranking them 23rd. The Falcons are squandering an average of 37.3 points, pegging them 132nd in the country.

Army vs. Air Force Pick

Spread Pick for Army vs. Air Force

• Army Black Knights +1 (5 units)

The Army Black Knights are playing better in recent games. They have won two of their past three games. The only loss in that span was against a strong Tulane squad. They have earned road wins against Kansas State and UAB. The Air Force Falcons have a decent offense but a poor defense, which is costing them games. They have dropped five of their past six games.

Furthermore, the Army offense will run in a majority of its plays via its triple-option offense. They are averaging a stunning 275 rushing yards per game, ranking them fifth in the entire country. This is key in this matchup against a very weak rush defense. The Falcons are squandering an average of 177 rushing yards per game, pegging them 105th in the country. Air Force also runs in most of its plays. The Black Knights' rush defense is better than the Falcons' rush defense, conceding just 141 yards per game. The bottom line is that both teams opt for the run in most of their plays. The Black Knights have the superior rush defense, which should lead to a win.

Over/Under Pick for Army vs. Air Force

• Over 49 (5 units)

I expect a shootout. The Falcons' defense has not been able to contain most of the opposition this season. They have conceded over 40 points in four of their six games and rank near the bottom of the country in many defensive categories. They have squandered an average of 40 points in their past five games.

In addition, as mentioned, Army runs in most of its offensive plays. The Falcons' rush defense is among the worst. Also, while these teams opt for the run with the triple-option offense, they do not waste any time between plays. Army ranks 26th in plays per game, while Air Force stands at 39th in the country in plays per game. The over is a convincing 5-1 in the Falcons’ past six games.